Part of: MI-13 Democratic Primary Winner
Will Shri Thanedar be the Democratic Nominee for MI-13?
5 smart money signals detected, totaling $173,261.
Categories: Politics, michigan, Elections, Primaries, primary elections, House Primary, Democratic Primary, Michigan Primary, August 4 Primaries, US Election
Notable Trades
Serial trader doubles down on Yes
A serial cross-market trader with a profitable history added $58.8K to an existing Yes position during a 301x volume spike, despite the market later falling sharply.
- This bettor has won 71% of 279 resolved trades and is up $777K lifetime.
- They added $58.8K to an existing Yes position, bringing total exposure above $160K.
- The trade coincided with a 301x historical volume spike, although Yes has since fallen from 59¢ to 30¢.
$58,817 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 71%
Serial trader scales into No
A serial cross-market trader added to an existing No position during a 208x volume spike and major repricing, though their historical edge is modest.
- The wallet added $2,707 to No at 56¢, reinforcing an existing position now worth roughly 76¢.
- Trading activity spiked to 208x its historical average, while the market repriced sharply toward No.
- This trader has 323 resolved bets and is up $253,598, but a 64% win rate makes the signal supportive rather than definitive.
$2,707 on No | Wallet win rate: 65%
Sharp wallets scaling into Yes
A concentrated $70,000 Yes position from multiple wallets is supported by a highly profitable 84% win-rate trader and a major volume spike, despite the market moving sharply against the initial entries.
- A proven bettor has won 84% of 174 resolved trades and is up $1.17 million lifetime.
- Three wallets committed $70,177 to Yes, with existing holders adding to positions and a 208x volume spike.
- The bet was made around 59¢ while Yes is now near 28¢, creating substantial risk but also a potentially meaningful contrarian entry if the thesis remains valid.
$70,177 on Yes
Sharp trader buys Yes cheaply
A highly profitable serial trader effectively bought Yes at 11¢, followed by a sharp 30-point rise in the market’s Yes price.
- This bettor wins 84% of resolved trades and is up $1.17 million lifetime.
- Selling No at 89¢ was equivalent to buying Yes at roughly 11¢; Yes has since risen to 41%.
- The wallet has traded across 56 events and 77 markets, with another position in this event supporting the thesis.
$7,559 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 83%
Profitable serial trader takes $34K position
A highly profitable serial trader with an 84% win rate and $1.14M lifetime profit made a large $34,000 position in a relatively thin market, though the conflicting Yes and No trades make the signal less clean.
- This bettor has won 84% of 173 resolved trades and is up $1.14 million lifetime.
- The trader deployed $34,000 in a market with only about $6,143 in 24-hour volume.
- The No position remains aligned with the current 84% market probability, while the simultaneous Yes trade makes the overall positioning unusually mixed.
$34,000 on No | Wallet win rate: 83%
Top Holders
- 0x7bc1...8db4 — Outcome 60140391, $113,273 (67% win rate)
- 0xe899...0899 — Outcome 60140391, $103,372 (71% win rate)
- 0xa5ef...2966 — Outcome 10966219, $58,330
- 0xd3a6...fd55 — Outcome 60140391, $25,131 (41% win rate)
- 0x64c8...73ce — Outcome 60140391, $18,265 (75% win rate)
- 0x8e4e...f6d9 — Outcome 10966219, $10,000
- 0x3151...4393 — Outcome 60140391, $5,378 (86% win rate)
- 0x23d8...0288 — Outcome 60140391, $5,270 (83% win rate)
- 0xc2e5...b3a5 — Outcome 60140391, $4,901 (66% win rate)
- 0x69e7...d3b0 — Outcome 60140391, $4,751 (54% win rate)
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