Part of: 2026 Busan Mayoral Election Winner

Will Chun Jae-soo win the 2026 Busan Mayoral Election?

10 smart money signals detected, totaling $27,412.

Categories: Politics, Elections, World, South Korea, World Elections, Global Elections, Main Election

Notable Trades

91% winner buying spike

A highly successful wallet bought $4.3k of Yes during a 72x volume spike on a political market with recent upward momentum.

This bettor has won 91% of 407 resolved trades and is up about $10k lifetime.
The market just saw a 72x volume spike, suggesting fresh attention on this race.
They bought Yes at 86¢ as the price has climbed 5 points over the past week.

$4,317 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 91%

92% winner buying Yes

Sharp political bettor with a 92% record and positive lifetime P&L bought Yes at 87¢ on Chun Jae-soo winning Busan mayor.

This bettor wins 92% of resolved trades and is up $5.1K lifetime.
They have 279 resolved positions, so the track record is unusually deep.
Buying at 87¢ shows confidence despite the market already pricing Chun as the favorite.

$1,739 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 92%

94% win-rate political trader

Surfacing because this is a proven cross-market political bettor with a 94% resolved win rate and positive lifetime P&L buying Yes despite already-high odds.

This bettor has won 94% of 87 resolved trades and is up $37K lifetime.
They are a serial cross-market trader across 25 events with $85K in similar positioning.
Buying at 85¢ suggests they still see value despite the market already pricing Chun Jae-soo as the favorite.

$1,500 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 84%

92% winner backs favorite

Sharp-wallet override: a bettor with a 92% resolved-bet win rate and positive lifetime P&L bought $4.1k of Yes despite only a modest signal score.

This bettor wins 92% of resolved bets and is up $3.9k lifetime.
They put $4.1k on Yes at 85¢ in a niche political market.
Their past bets beat implied odds by 29 percentage points on average.

$4,072 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 92%

Sharp bettor fading favorite

Sharp profitable wallet with a 79% record is fading the 84% favorite in a political market, converting to a BUY No at 17¢.

This bettor wins 79% of resolved trades and is up $38K lifetime.
They are betting against an 84% favorite, implying Chun Jae-soo’s odds are too high.
The wallet has been flagged 5 times before and has a strong 23% edge versus market prices.

$2,490 on No | Wallet win rate: 85%

Proven political bettor adding Yes

Sharp wallet with a 79% resolved-bet win rate and positive lifetime P&L bought $7.5k of Yes in a niche political market.

This bettor wins 79% of resolved bets and is up $27,880 lifetime.
They put $7,500 on Yes at 75¢, a meaningful buy in a niche election market.
The wallet has been flagged 5 times before, suggesting repeated large-conviction positioning.

$7,500 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 85%

Profitable 79% winner

Surface despite the weak alert score because this wallet has a proven 79% win record across 24 resolved bets and positive lifetime P&L.

This bettor wins 79% of resolved bets and is up $26K lifetime.
They bought Yes at 76¢ on a political market with a tight 2¢ spread.
The wallet has been flagged 5 times before, suggesting repeated notable positioning.

$1,223 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 85%

97% winner buying Yes

Sharp wallet with a 97% record and strong lifetime profit bought Yes on a niche political market at 75¢.

This bettor has won 99 of 102 resolved positions and is up $83.7K lifetime.
They are buying a niche election market where local political knowledge can matter.
Entry at 75¢ suggests they still see value despite the market already pricing Chun as the favorite.

$1,297 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 95%

91% winner buying Yes

Surface despite the weak low-activity signal because the buyer is a proven sharp wallet with a 91% resolved win rate and positive lifetime P&L.

This bettor wins 91% of resolved trades and is up $54,793 lifetime.
They bought Yes at 79¢ in a niche political market where local information may matter.
The market is already up 12.5 points this week, and this trade adds to the pro-Yes momentum.

$1,487 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 92%

91% winner buying quiet race

A highly successful wallet with a 91% win rate and positive lifetime P&L bought Yes in a relatively quiet political market despite only a weak low-activity signal.

This bettor wins 91% of resolved trades and is up $54.5K lifetime.
They bought $1.8K of Yes at 79¢ in a market with only a few thousand dollars of daily volume.
The price is already up 12 points this week, so this adds to existing momentum.

$1,788 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 92%

Top Holders

0xa5ef...2966 — Outcome 10897095, $112,559
0x1255...dc0f — Outcome 10897095, $24,465
0x7bc1...8db4 — Outcome 10897095, $11,275 (67% win rate)
0x7702...9791 — Outcome 28087732, $5,948 (64% win rate)
0xc7f9...e37d — Outcome 10897095, $4,586 (86% win rate)
0x238a...a504 — Outcome 10897095, $3,242
0xe32b...626e — Outcome 10897095, $2,486
0x7f33...914e — Outcome 10897095, $2,148 (73% win rate)
0x75d1...7a5f — Outcome 28087732, $1,113
0xf6f6...0e74 — Outcome 10897095, $824

Related Theses

Fujimori or Sánchez wins presidency

Covers 2 related markets

Will Chun Jae-soo win the 2026 Busan Mayoral Election?

Resolved2026 Busan Mayoral Election Winner$27,412 tracked10 signalsPoliticsElectionsWorldSouth KoreaWorld ElectionsGlobal ElectionsMain Election

The 2026 Busan mayoral election is scheduled to take place on June 3, 2026 to elect the next mayor of Busan. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate that wins this election. If the result of this election isn't known by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the South Korean government, specifically the National Election Commission.