Part of: Which countries will send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by May 31?
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by May 31, 2026?
2 smart money signals detected, totaling $5,629.
Categories: Oil, Strait of Hormuz, Iran, Geopolitics, Naval, U.S. x Iran
Notable Trades
91% winner buying Yes
Despite only a weak low-activity signal, this is a proven sharp wallet with a 91% resolved win rate taking a Yes-equivalent position in a quiet market.
- This bettor has won 91% of 207 resolved bets and is up $7.6K lifetime.
- The trade is effectively a Buy Yes at 11¢, against a current market near 10¢.
- Their $4.6K trade was larger than the market’s entire 24h volume, showing conviction in a quiet market.
$4,604 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 91%
86% serial event trader
A very high-volume serial cross-market trader with an 86% resolved-bet win rate bought Yes at 12¢ before the market doubled, though the edge is less copyable now after the move.
- This bettor has won 86% of 1,081 resolved bets across 217 markets.
- They bought Yes at 12¢ before the market moved to about 24¢.
- The market is up 13.5 points in one day, confirming strong momentum in their direction.
$1,025 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 86%
Top Holders
- 0x7447...a16d — Outcome 11308697, $3,677 (59% win rate)
- 0x22c7...7198 — Outcome 11308697, $3,560
- 0x8d7a...276f — Outcome 11308697, $2,154 (13% win rate)
- 0xc7d0...1f8a — Outcome 11308697, $1,242
- 0x0845...6b6f — Outcome 11308697, $1,164 (68% win rate)
- 0x506f...e8bb — Outcome 11308697, $1,000
- 0xa82b...5220 — Outcome 11308697, $1,000 (46% win rate)
- 0x8a81...58b0 — Outcome 11308697, $515
- 0x95e0...c9da — Outcome 11308697, $308
- 0x519e...edbd — Outcome 11308697, $288
Related Theses
No US-Iran talks by June
Covers 9 related markets
Hormuz disruptions continue past July
Covers 1 related market
GameStop won't acquire eBay
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Early Iran meeting expected
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