Which countries will send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by May 31?
4 signals across 3 markets · $8,057 tracked · resolves May 31, 2026
This Polymarket event tracks whether Germany or the United States will send warships through the Strait of Hormuz before the May 31, 2026 deadline. Traders are pricing separate Yes/No outcomes for each country, with recent PolySpotter alerts showing smart-money bettors leaning toward NO across the event.
Markets (3)
- Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by May 31, 2026?2 signals · $5,629 tracked
- Will Germany send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by May 31, 2026?1 signal · $1,361 tracked
- Will the United States send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by May 31, 2026?1 signal · $1,067 tracked
Top trades across all markets
- Serial cross-market winner buying NO
Serial cross-market trader with a 75% resolved-bet record bought No in a thin geopolitical market, and the position has already moved strongly in their favor.
$1,067Wallet win rate: 68%Score: 5.0 - Serial geopolitics bettor buys NO
Serial cross-market trader with a 70% resolved-bet record and positive lifetime P&L is buying No on a geopolitical market despite a recent move toward Yes.
$1,361Wallet win rate: 74%Score: 4.0 - 86% serial event trader
A very high-volume serial cross-market trader with an 86% resolved-bet win rate bought Yes at 12¢ before the market doubled, though the edge is less copyable now after the move.
$1,025Wallet win rate: 86%Score: 4.0 - 91% winner buying Yes
Despite only a weak low-activity signal, this is a proven sharp wallet with a 91% resolved win rate taking a Yes-equivalent position in a quiet market.
$4,604Wallet win rate: 91%Score: 1.0
Top wallets in this event
- 0x5969ad…5bed$4,604 · 1 market · 1 alert · 91% wins
- 0xb4f259…e5fa$1,361 · 1 market · 1 alert · 74% wins
- 0xa8c63f…44e8$1,067 · 1 market · 1 alert · 68% wins
- 0xcdb1f1…276c$1,025 · 1 market · 1 alert · 86% wins
FAQs
What are the odds that countries send warships through the Strait of Hormuz?
The event includes separate prediction markets for Germany and the United States, so each country has its own live odds. PolySpotter tracks those markets together so you can compare how traders are pricing the chance of each country making a warship transit by May 31, 2026.
What is the smart money doing on this Strait of Hormuz market?
Recent PolySpotter alerts show a serial cross-market winner and a serial geopolitics bettor buying NO. Across the event, PolySpotter has tracked $2,428 in smart-money activity across 2 signals.
Which countries are included in this Polymarket event?
This event currently covers two child markets: whether Germany will send warships through the Strait of Hormuz and whether the United States will send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by the deadline.
When does this Strait of Hormuz warship market resolve?
The markets are set to resolve based on whether a qualifying warship transit occurs between market creation and May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Resolution depends on confirmation from a national government, military source, or broad credible reporting.
What counts as a warship transit for this market?
A qualifying transit means a military vessel passes through the Strait of Hormuz. The rules also include military cargo or support vessels, while commercial or civilian vessels do not count.