This bettor wins 87% of resolved trades and is up $48,080 lifetime. They put $1.1k on No in a thin market with only $330 of liquidity. Entry at 87¢ shows they are strongly backing the 20-39 ship range not happening.

Part of: How many ships transit the Strait of Hormuz week of May 11?

Will 20-39 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between May 11-May 17?

2 smart money signals detected, totaling $2,071.

Categories: tanker, Oil, Hormuz, Geopolitics, Strait of Hormuz, Iran, Rewards 50, 4.5, 20

Notable Trades

87% winner buying No

A highly profitable bettor with an 87% win rate is buying No despite the alert itself being only a weak low-liquidity signal.

This bettor wins 87% of resolved trades and is up $48,080 lifetime.
They put $1.1k on No in a thin market with only $330 of liquidity.
Entry at 87¢ shows they are strongly backing the 20-39 ship range not happening.

$1,071 on No | Wallet win rate: 86%

Profitable new repeat bettor

A young repeat bettor with early profits is buying Yes on a relatively thin market with strong recent upward momentum.

This 27-day-old wallet has already made 7 positions and is up $2,442 so far.
They bought $1,000 of Yes at 75¢ on a market with only $2,385 in liquidity.
The market has moved sharply toward Yes, up 12 points today and 42.5 points this week.

$1,000 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 50%

Top Holders

0xa5ef...2966 — Outcome 41033879, $56,280
0x2b67...b814 — Outcome 15871374, $4,061 (74% win rate)
0xac4a...bf1e — Outcome 15871374, $2,496
0xcff6...521e — Outcome 15871374, $1,426
0x1f09...1f55 — Outcome 15871374, $690
0x890e...7ec1 — Outcome 15871374, $682
0x49a2...7734 — Outcome 15871374, $577
0xcacc...2eac — Outcome 15871374, $315
0xcd91...32b8 — Outcome 15871374, $262
0xd87f...d3e4 — Outcome 15871374, $210

Related Theses

Covers 2 related markets

Will 20-39 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between May 11-May 17?

ResolvedHow many ships transit the Strait of Hormuz week of May 11?$2,071 tracked2 signalstankerOilHormuzGeopoliticsStrait of HormuzIranRewards 50, 4.5, 20

This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Strait of Hormuz for all days from May 11, 2026, through May 17, 2026, inclusive. Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered. This market will resolve as soon as data has been published for the final date in the specified period. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point. Revisions to previously published data points made within this market’s timeframe will be considered. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for the final date of the specified period, however, will not be considered. The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.

Notable Trades