Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?
First-round presidential elections are scheduled to be held in Peru on April 12, 2026, with a potential second round on June 7, 2026, if no candidate receives more than 50% of the valid votes outright. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the second-most valid votes in the first round of this election. The named candidates will be primarily ranked by the number of valid votes received in the specified election. If two or more candidates are tied on valid votes, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates' last names. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking. If the results are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the results of this election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve solely on the official results as reported by the Peruvian government, specifically the National Office of Electoral Processes (Oficina Nacional de Procesos Electorales, ONPE) (https://www.onpe.gob.pe/elecciones/) and the National Jury of Elections (Jurado Nacional de Elecciones, JNE) (https://portal.jne.gob.pe/portal/)
21 smart money signals detected, totaling $49,839.
Categories: Peru, Politics, Elections, Global Elections, Peru Election
Notable Trades
Repeat new-wallet whale
An 8-day-old wallet has repeatedly deployed meaningful size across Polymarket and just bought another $5k into a fast-moving Peru election market, suggesting sustained conviction despite no long-term track record yet.
- This 8-day-old wallet has already triggered 9 large-bet alerts and deployed about $51k total
- They just bought $5k of Yes at 86¢ in a market that is already moving hard, up 15 points in 1 day and 78 points in 1 week
- The trade is meaningful but not market-moving in a deep market with $222k 24h volume and $50k liquidity
$5,014 on Yes
New wallet scaling into momentum
A 3-day-old wallet has repeatedly made sizable bets across multiple markets and is now scaling back into a fast-rising Peru election market despite already trading it before.
- This 3-day-old wallet has already triggered 6 large-bet alerts and put about $11.6k to work
- They are adding back into Yes at 78¢ after previously trading this market, showing renewed conviction as odds keep rising
- The market is moving fast with odds up 15 points in a day and 68 points in a week, so this bet is following strong momentum
$2,311 on Yes
New whale reloading Yes
A 3-day-old wallet with repeated large bets is re-entering and scaling into a fast-rising Peru election market, suggesting strong conviction despite no resolved track record yet.
- This 3-day-old wallet has already triggered 5 large-bet alerts with about $9.3k flagged across 6 positions
- They bought Yes at 77¢ after previously trading this market, showing renewed conviction rather than a first test bet
- The market is moving fast with odds up 11.7 points in a day and 67.8 points in a week, so this bettor is leaning into strong momentum
$1,396 on Yes
82% win-rate election bettor
An 82% win-rate political trader with over $330k in profits is building a consistent cross-market Peru election thesis, and this trade bought Yes exposure at an implied 71¢.
- This bettor wins 82% of resolved trades and is up about $332k lifetime
- They have traded 87 markets across 48 events, which points to a repeatable event-trading edge
- This sale of No at 29¢ is equivalent to buying Yes at 71¢, slightly below the current 74-75¢ market
$2,018 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 82%
87% winner buying NO
A proven high-win-rate trader with strong cross-market event history is making a fresh binary bet by selling Yes at 63¢, equivalent to buying No at 37¢, which is worth surfacing despite the modest size.
- This bettor wins 87% of resolved markets and is up $275k across 193 settled bets
- The trade is a fresh position on the other side: selling Yes at 63¢ is equivalent to buying No at 37¢
- This wallet has traded 72 related markets across 34 events, suggesting a repeatable event-driven process
$1,893 on No | Wallet win rate: 87%
87% win-rate election trader
A highly profitable 87% win-rate trader is taking a fresh cross-market view in the Peru election by effectively buying No at 35¢ after previously closing an earlier No position.
- This bettor wins 87% of resolved trades and is up $275k across 193 settled markets.
- The trade is effectively a BUY on No at 35¢, a fresh re-entry after an earlier No position was already closed.
- This wallet has made $428k of cross-market bets across 34 events, suggesting a repeatable event-trading edge.
$1,034 on No | Wallet win rate: 87%
87% win-rate election trader
A highly profitable serial cross-market trader with an 87% win rate opened a fresh Yes position in this Peru election market after previously closing the opposite side.
- This bettor wins 87% of their trades and is up $274.5k across 193 resolved markets.
- They trade across many related markets with a strong record: 34 events, 72 markets, and $425k deployed.
- This is a fresh Yes bet at 63¢ after previously exiting a No position, showing a clear change in view rather than routine profit-taking.
$1,256 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 87%
Pro trader re-entering Yes
A highly profitable 75% win-rate trader with over $3.2M in profits reopened a Yes position in a fast-moving Peru election market after previously closing out, suggesting renewed conviction rather than routine profit-taking.
- This bettor wins 75% of resolved markets and is up $3.26M lifetime across more than 1,000 bets
- They just put $6.2k into Yes at 62¢ after previously closing a smaller position, which points to fresh conviction
- The market is active and trending up, with price up 49% this week and Yes now trading around 61%
$6,192 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 75%
87% win-rate election bettor
A proven sharp bettor with an 87% win rate is making a fresh cross-market election trade by effectively buying No around 32¢ in a liquid Peru market after already closing an earlier No position.
- This bettor wins 87% of resolved markets and is up $274k lifetime across 193 settled bets.
- The trade is a SELL Yes at 68¢, which is equivalent to buying No at 32¢ in this market.
- They trade across many related event markets with a strong record: 34 events, 72 markets, and $418k deployed.
$2,722 on No | Wallet win rate: 87%
91% win-rate election bettor
A bettor with a 91% win rate is adding a sizable position across related Peru election markets into strong momentum, making this worth surfacing despite the modest composite score.
- This bettor wins 91% of resolved trades with 218 settled bets and is up $31k lifetime
- They are betting across 2 related Peru election markets, suggesting a broader election view rather than a one-off punt
- They bought at 75¢ while this market has surged 61.5% in a week, showing willingness to pay up behind the thesis
$2,765 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 91%
Top Holders
- 0xa5ef...2966 — No, $221,543
- 0x39aa...583c — Yes, $35,135 (49% win rate)
- 0xb1ca...1705 — Yes, $23,462 (100% win rate)
- 0xb4f2...7851 — Yes, $20,787 (38% win rate)
- 0x1fee...ed5e — Yes, $20,234 (57% win rate)
- 0xfd8f...6f11 — Yes, $14,759 (75% win rate)
- 0xe790...63d2 — Yes, $14,756
- 0x4b1b...9af9 — No, $14,284
- 0x5462...eed6 — Yes, $13,508 (40% win rate)
- 0x58b3...653c — No, $13,269 (46% win rate)
