Peru Presidential Election First Round: 2nd Place
40 signals across 3 markets · $116,592 tracked · resolves Apr 12, 2026
This event tracks Polymarket odds on who will finish second in the first round of Peru’s 2026 presidential election. Traders are pricing multiple second-place outcomes, including Rafael López Aliaga, Ricardo Belmont, and Roberto Sánchez Palomino, with over $116K in smart money activity tracked across the event. Recent signals include sharp No buying and high win-rate election traders taking positions.
Markets (3)
- Will Rafael López Aliaga finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?17 signals · $61,640 tracked
- Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?22 signals · $52,441 tracked
- Will Ricardo Belmont finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?1 signal · $2,511 tracked
Top trades across all markets
- Sharp cluster buying No
Three wallets all moved into No on this Peru election market, led by two bettors with 87%-91% win rates and one very new repeat wallet, pushing price sharply lower.
$4,256Score: 16.9 - 83% win-rate contrarian
A highly profitable cross-market political trader with an 83% win rate is taking a sizable fresh NO position against a sharply rising Peru election contract, making this a strong contrarian signal worth surfacing.
$4,338Wallet win rate: 80%Score: 10.0 - 83% win-rate election bettor
A proven profitable cross-market trader with an 83% win rate is taking a fresh $1.6k Yes position in a Peru election market after a sharp 41-point one-day drop, making this a credible contrarian setup worth watching.
$1,577Wallet win rate: 80%Score: 9.0 - 83% win-rate political bettor
A highly profitable cross-market specialist with an 83% win rate bought NO at 45¢ in a major political market after a strong run-up, making this a credible copy-trade despite the modest ticket size.
$2,521Wallet win rate: 80%Score: 9.0 - 87% win-rate election trader
A highly profitable serial cross-market trader with an 87% win rate opened a fresh Yes position in this Peru election market after previously closing the opposite side.
$1,256Wallet win rate: 86%Score: 9.0 - 87% win-rate election trader
A highly profitable 87% win-rate trader is taking a fresh cross-market view in the Peru election by effectively buying No at 35¢ after previously closing an earlier No position.
$1,034Wallet win rate: 86%Score: 9.0 - 87% winner buying NO
A proven high-win-rate trader with strong cross-market event history is making a fresh binary bet by selling Yes at 63¢, equivalent to buying No at 37¢, which is worth surfacing despite the modest size.
$1,893Wallet win rate: 86%Score: 9.0 - 87% win-rate election bettor
A proven sharp bettor with an 87% win rate is making a fresh cross-market election trade by effectively buying No around 32¢ in a liquid Peru market after already closing an earlier No position.
$2,722Wallet win rate: 86%Score: 9.0 - Sharp trader flipped to No
A proven high-volume cross-market winner flipped from a prior Yes position into a fresh $3.7k No buy as this Peru market dropped sharply, signaling a deliberate thesis change worth watching.
$3,658Wallet win rate: 72%Score: 8.3 - 87% win-rate macro bettor
A highly profitable serial cross-market trader with an 87% win rate put fresh money into No after a sharp move, making this a credible directional bet despite the modest size.
$2,339Wallet win rate: 86%Score: 8.3
Top wallets in this event
- 0x784fee…5df9$32,147 · 2 markets · 15 alerts · 86% wins
- 0x1fee90…ed5e$29,701 · 2 markets · 6 alerts · 88% wins
- 0xdc03d6…804c$15,565 · 3 markets · 6 alerts · 80% wins
- 0x35bbba…009b$7,619 · 2 markets · 2 alerts · 72% wins
- 0xf2f6af…5817$6,192 · 1 market · 1 alert · 75% wins
- 0x5685bf…62e2$5,305 · 2 markets · 3 alerts · 91% wins
- 0x676489…49c4$5,014 · 1 market · 1 alert · 100% wins
- 0xe790a1…63d2$3,707 · 1 market · 2 alerts · 88% wins
- 0xfb02e0…df7c$2,764 · 1 market · 1 alert
- 0x3fbbb0…3f66$2,563 · 1 market · 1 alert · 84% wins
FAQs
What is the Peru presidential election 2nd place prediction market?
This Polymarket event covers which listed candidate will receive the second-most valid votes in the first round of Peru’s 2026 presidential election. The hub includes separate markets for Rafael López Aliaga, Ricardo Belmont, and Roberto Sánchez Palomino finishing in second place.
What do the odds show for Peru’s 2026 first-round second place?
The odds reflect how prediction-market traders are pricing each candidate’s chance of finishing second in the first round. Prices can move as polling, campaign news, liquidity, and smart money trades change market expectations.
What is the smart money doing in this event?
PolySpotter has tracked about $116,592 in smart money across 40 signals for this event. Recent alert headlines point to sharp clusters buying “No” and activity from high win-rate election traders, including 87% win-rate accounts.
Which candidates are included in this 2nd place market?
The listed child markets currently cover Rafael López Aliaga, Ricardo Belmont, and Roberto Sánchez Palomino finishing second in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election.
When does this Peru election prediction market resolve?
The event is tied to Peru’s first-round presidential election scheduled for April 12, 2026. It resolves based on the candidate who receives the second-most valid votes in that first round, according to the market rules.