Part of: Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by...?
Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by March 31, 2027?
This Polymarket asks whether the entirety of Kostyantynivka in Donetsk Oblast will be shown as captured by Russia on the specified ISW map by March 31, 2027, at 11:59 PM ET. Current odds are not included in the supplied market metadata; PolySpotter tracks $1,500 in smart money and reports one recent signal, a trader adding to a No position.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Russia captures the entirety of Kostyantynivka, Donetsk Oblast, (48.528896° N, 37.702514° E) between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Kostyantynivka will be considered captured if the entirety of the municipality is shaded under a below specified layer on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. Otherwise, the market will resolve to “No”. The boundaries of the municipality are those shown under the “Ukrainian Settlements” layer on the ISW map. If all area within the municipality is shaded under a qualifying layer, however, the shading does not precisely match up with the border such that there is a tiny amount of unshaded area along the border of the municipality, this will still qualify for a "Yes" resolution. For any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle. If ISW skips a day, shading must persist until the next finalized ISW update is published, regardless of the date. Any continuous shading under the following layers will qualify: - Assessed Russian-Controlled Terrain - Assessed Russian Advances Shading under the following layers will not qualify: - Assessed Russian Infiltration Areas - Claimed Russian Territory Once a qualifying condition is met, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market. If Russia comes into control of the specified territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of whether it is shaded under a qualifying layer on the ISW map. However, an announcement of a negotiated settlement that gives Russia de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established. The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used. Note: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map will not be considered.
7 smart money signals detected, totaling $12,344.
Categories: Politics, Ukraine Map, Geopolitics
Notable Trades
Cross-market No bettor adding conviction
The wallet is adding to a sizable No position while making related bets across three markets, though its record does not show a clear odds-adjusted edge.
- The bettor has about $3,700 invested in No here and added another $1,495.
- They have placed about $17,500 across three related markets, signaling a broader view on the event.
- Their 67% win rate is below their average winning entry price of 72¢, so the track record alone is not a strong edge signal.
$3,140 on No | Wallet win rate: 67%
Cross-market No bettor adding conviction
The wallet is adding to a sizable No position while making related bets across three markets, though its record does not show a clear odds-adjusted edge.
- The bettor has about $3,700 invested in No here and added another $1,495.
- They have placed about $17,500 across three related markets, signaling a broader view on the event.
- Their 67% win rate is below their average winning entry price of 72¢, so the track record alone is not a strong edge signal.
$2,457 on No | Wallet win rate: 67%
Cross-market No bettor adding conviction
The wallet is adding to a sizable No position while making related bets across three markets, though its record does not show a clear odds-adjusted edge.
- The bettor has about $3,700 invested in No here and added another $1,495.
- They have placed about $17,500 across three related markets, signaling a broader view on the event.
- Their 67% win rate is below their average winning entry price of 72¢, so the track record alone is not a strong edge signal.
$1,346 on No | Wallet win rate: 67%
Cross-market No bettor adding conviction
The wallet is adding to a sizable No position while making related bets across three markets, though its record does not show a clear odds-adjusted edge.
- The bettor has about $3,700 invested in No here and added another $1,495.
- They have placed about $17,500 across three related markets, signaling a broader view on the event.
- Their 67% win rate is below their average winning entry price of 72¢, so the track record alone is not a strong edge signal.
$1,495 on No | Wallet win rate: 67%
Profitable serial cross-market bettor
A consistently profitable, highly active bettor is adding to an existing No position, though their 70% win rate is close to their average entry odds.
- This bettor is up $38,881 across 199 resolved trades and has traded 29 events.
- They added $1,400 to an existing No position, bringing their investment in it to over $8,500.
- No is available around 64¢, near this bettor’s 64¢ entry.
$1,400 on No | Wallet win rate: 70%
Profitable serial trader buying Yes
A highly experienced, profitable serial cross-market trader bought Yes in a very quiet market, with related positioning totaling $118,069 across two markets in the event.
- This trader is up about $451,000 across 1,297 resolved bets, though their 77% win rate should be weighed against an average winning entry price of 85¢.
- The $1,006 Yes buy was about 60 times the market’s 24-hour volume; related positioning across two event markets totals $118,069.
- Yes was bought at 39¢, with market odds up 3 percentage points over the past day.
$1,006 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 77%
Serial trader adds to No position
A serial cross-market trader with a 70% win rate added $1,500 to an existing No position in a thin market, though their record is only marginally above their average winning entry odds.
- A bettor with 196 resolved trades has a 70% win rate and is up about $29,000 overall.
- The $1,500 No buy was more than 2.7 times the market’s 24-hour volume and adds to an existing position.
- They entered No at 59¢, below the current 66¢ odds.
$1,500 on No | Wallet win rate: 70%
Top Holders
- 0xa2f1...2d22 — Yes, $11,378 (77% win rate)
- 0xc984...37ca — No, $9,365 (67% win rate)
- 0x1464...5e75 — Yes, $8,893 (59% win rate)
- 0xc932...e6a5 — No, $7,115 (70% win rate)
- 0xb7c1...675e — No, $4,075 (73% win rate)
- 0x63bc...f87d — Yes, $2,941 (100% win rate)
- 0xc550...272d — No, $2,770 (75% win rate)
- 0xd44e...67e2 — No, $2,000 (60% win rate)
- 0xc5a3...883a — Yes, $1,092 (59% win rate)
- 0x2889...fc69 — No, $734
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Russia will capture Kostyantynivka
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