Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by...?
15 signals across 2 markets · $36,491 tracked · resolves Dec 31, 2026
This Polymarket event tracks whether Russia will capture the entirety of Kostyantynivka, Donetsk Oblast, by December 31, 2026, based on the ISW map. Traders are pricing the Yes/No outcome around battlefield control, with PolySpotter tracking $11,524 in smart-money activity and signals from profitable geopolitics and war-market bettors.
Markets (2)
Top trades across all markets
- Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026?
A high-volume serial cross-market trader with a large positive P&L made a $3.4k No bet that dwarfed this market's daily flow, suggesting informed conviction in a thin book.
$3,433Wallet win rate: 61%Score: 7.3 - Proven geopolitical sharp
A highly proven cross-market trader with a 76% win rate and $315k lifetime profit bought Yes on a Ukraine war market that has moved sharply upward.
$1,910Wallet win rate: 77%Score: 5.0 - Proven geopolitical sharp
A highly proven cross-market trader with a 76% win rate and $315k lifetime profit bought Yes on a Ukraine war market that has moved sharply upward.
$2,159Wallet win rate: 77%Score: 5.0 - Profitable serial event trader
Serial cross-market trader with a large positive track record is buying No on a relatively quiet geopolitics market.
$1,630Wallet win rate: 61%Score: 5.0 - Proven geopolitical sharp
A highly proven cross-market trader with a 76% win rate and $315k lifetime profit bought Yes on a Ukraine war market that has moved sharply upward.
$1,610Wallet win rate: 77%Score: 5.0 - Proven geopolitical sharp
A highly proven cross-market trader with a 76% win rate and $315k lifetime profit bought Yes on a Ukraine war market that has moved sharply upward.
$4,276Wallet win rate: 77%Score: 4.3 - Proven geopolitical sharp
A highly proven cross-market trader with a 76% win rate and $315k lifetime profit bought Yes on a Ukraine war market that has moved sharply upward.
$4,415Wallet win rate: 77%Score: 4.3 - Profitable serial geopolitics bettor
A high-volume, profitable serial cross-market trader with 636 resolved bets bought No on a geopolitics market at 65¢, and the price has already moved in their favor to 70¢.
$5,591Wallet win rate: 61%Score: 4.3 - Proven geopolitical sharp
A highly proven cross-market trader with a 76% win rate and $315k lifetime profit bought Yes on a Ukraine war market that has moved sharply upward.
$1,921Wallet win rate: 77%Score: 4.0 - Profitable whale fading Yes
Profitable high-volume wallet sold Yes in a quiet, wide-spread Ukraine war market, effectively backing No at 75¢ after Yes had already fallen sharply.
$1,472Wallet win rate: 42%Score: 3.0
Top wallets in this event
- 0xa2f1fe…2d22$16,291 · 1 market · 6 alerts · 77% wins
- 0xd44e97…67e2$13,154 · 1 market · 4 alerts · 61% wins
- 0x4db156…e2ab$1,705 · 1 market · 1 alert · 88% wins
- 0xf92a95…a517$1,477 · 1 market · 1 alert · 92% wins
- 0x2bd257…c21b$1,472 · 1 market · 1 alert · 42% wins
- 0xc984e5…37ca$1,297 · 1 market · 1 alert · 73% wins
- 0xdc700b…cc56$1,095 · 1 market · 1 alert · 75% wins
FAQs
What are the Polymarket odds for Russia capturing all of Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026?
The live odds come from the Yes and No prices on Polymarket for this event. PolySpotter tracks those market prices alongside smart-money flows so you can see whether informed traders are leaning toward capture or no capture.
What counts as Russia capturing all of Kostyantynivka?
The market resolves to Yes only if the entirety of Kostyantynivka municipality is shaded red on the ISW map by the resolution deadline. If any part is not shaded red by then, it resolves to No.
Who is betting on this Kostyantynivka prediction market?
PolySpotter has flagged activity from profitable geopolitics-focused bettors, including a serial geopolitics bettor and a war-market grinder. In total, $11,524 in smart-money activity has been tracked across this event.
What is the smart money doing in this market?
PolySpotter has detected 3 smart-money signals on this event. These alerts highlight notable trades from historically profitable accounts, helping traders compare headline odds with where sharper geopolitical bettors are positioning.
When does this Kostyantynivka market resolve?
The market is scheduled around the December 31, 2026 deadline. Resolution depends on the ISW map showing whether all of Kostyantynivka is under Russian control by the specified cutoff.