What does this Hantavirus prediction market cover?

The market covers whether a laboratory-confirmed Hantavirus infection is reported within the territory of the United States between the market’s creation and May 15, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET.

What counts as a confirmed Hantavirus case for this market?

Any laboratory-confirmed Hantavirus infection identified within U.S. territory qualifies, regardless of where the person was exposed or when symptoms began.

When does the Hantavirus US case market resolve?

The market is scheduled to resolve after May 15, 2026, based on whether a qualifying confirmed case was reported by the deadline.

What sources will determine the outcome?

The primary resolution source is official government information, such as reports from the CDC or other relevant public health authorities.

What smart money activity is PolySpotter tracking on this market?

PolySpotter currently tracks $2,806 in smart money on this market across 2 signals, including alerts such as a funded wallet cluster, outbreak-news chasing activity, a breakout trade, and a profitable whale flipping Yes.

Part of: Confirmed case of Hantavirus in US by May 15?

Confirmed case of Hantavirus in US by May 15?

This prediction market asks whether any laboratory-confirmed Hantavirus infection will be reported in U.S. territory by May 15, 2026. It resolves to Yes if an official source such as the CDC or other government information confirms a qualifying case; otherwise it resolves to No. PolySpotter is tracking $2,806 in smart money activity across 2 signals, including whale and outbreak-news-related wallet alerts.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a confirmed case of Hantavirus in the territory of the United States of America reported between market creation and May 15, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Any laboratory-confirmed hantavirus infection identified within U.S. territory will qualify, regardless of where exposure or symptom onset occurred. The primary resolution source for this market will be official government information (e.g., the CDC); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting will also suffice.

13 smart money signals detected, totaling $26,612.

Categories: Weather, Pandemics, Hantavirus, Culture

Notable Trades

Sharp 81% winner buying No

Sharp wallet override: a proven 81% winner with positive lifetime P&L bought No despite the alert having only a weak price-impact signal.

This bettor wins 81% of resolved trades and is up $70K lifetime.
They bought No at 67¢ after a fast 11-point move in under 5 minutes.
The market is very active today, so this looks more like a sharp directional bet than a thin-market blip.

$1,772 on No | Wallet win rate: 81%

82% winner flips No

Despite a low composite score, this is worth surfacing because the buyer has a strong 82% resolved-bet record and is flipping into No after a sharp one-day move.

This bettor wins 82% of resolved bets and is up about $25K lifetime.
They bought No at 45¢ after closing a prior Yes position, suggesting a fresh change in view.
No has moved sharply, with the market up 11 points in minutes and Yes down 35.5 points over the last day.

$1,034 on No | Wallet win rate: 82%

Sharp bettor flips to No

Sharp wallet override: despite a weak price-impact signal, the buyer has an 82% win rate over 157 resolved markets and is now buying No after closing a prior Yes position.

This bettor wins 82% of resolved trades and is up about $25K lifetime.
They flipped from a closed Yes position into No, suggesting a changed view rather than routine profit-taking.
Bought No at 25¢ while the market now sits near 30¢, showing early momentum in their direction.

$1,151 on No | Wallet win rate: 82%

Profitable serial trader flips Yes

A very active cross-market trader with $528k lifetime profit flipped from a prior No position into a $3.1k Yes buy during a sharp upward move.

This bettor is up $528k lifetime across more than 1,100 resolved markets.
They flipped from a prior No position into Yes at 72¢, suggesting a changed view rather than routine position management.
The Yes price jumped 13.5 percentage points in just over 2 minutes around this trade.

$3,137 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 56%

Profitable serial trader flips Yes

A highly profitable serial cross-market trader flipped from a prior No position into Yes during a fast upward move, though the trade size is modest relative to market volume.

This bettor is up $528K lifetime across more than 1,100 resolved trades.
They previously held No but has now bought Yes at 70¢, suggesting a changed view.
The Yes price jumped 13.5 points in just over two minutes, matching the direction of this buy.

$1,780 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 56%

94% winner buying Yes

Weak price-impact alert, but the buyer has a very strong resolved-market record and positive lifetime P&L, making the Yes buy worth surfacing under the sharp-wallet override.

This bettor has won 94% of 325 resolved trades and is up $27k lifetime.
They bought Yes at 71¢ after a fast 13.5-point move, suggesting they are following momentum.
The market is liquid, so the edge is mainly the wallet’s track record rather than trade size.

$1,167 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 94%

Profitable whale flipped Yes

Large Yes buy from a highly active profitable cross-market trader who appears to have flipped from a prior No position while moving the market upward.

This bettor is up $528k lifetime across more than 1,100 resolved trades.
They bought $8.6k of Yes and pushed the price up quickly from around 72¢ to 78¢.
They had previously closed a No position, so this looks like a fresh flip toward Yes.

$8,633 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 56%

4-wallet funded cluster

Four linked wallets from a previously seen funder are taking the contrarian No side after a sharp 1-day move toward Yes, suggesting coordinated conviction despite this wallet's weak resolved win rate.

Four linked wallets share the same funder and have been seen together in prior runs.
This trade buys No at 32¢ after Yes jumped 32.5 points in one day.
The market is active, with $222K traded in 24 hours, so this is a contrarian bet into real volume.

$1,044 on No | Wallet win rate: 30%

Sharp buyer chasing breakout

Although the alert signal is weak, the buyer has a strong resolved track record and bought into a fast-moving Yes market after a major 1-day price surge.

This bettor wins 86% of resolved trades and is up $6.6K lifetime.
They bought Yes at 74¢ while the market was moving fast, up 43 points in the last day.
The market has heavy recent volume, suggesting this move may be tied to fresh information.

$1,103 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 86%

Profitable serial trader

A highly experienced cross-market trader with over $512k lifetime profit bought Yes into a sharp 45-point daily move on a liquid Hantavirus market.

This bettor is up $512k lifetime across more than 1,100 resolved markets.
They are a very active cross-market trader, with $6.2M deployed across 106 markets in 74 events.
Yes has moved up 45 points in the last day, and this buy came during another fast 13.5-point move.

$2,366 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 56%