Part of: Next leader out of power before 2027? (No Orban)

Will Gustavo Petro be the next leader out before 2027?

This prediction market asks whether Gustavo Petro will be the first listed leader to permanently cease occupying his office before the end of 2026. The market resolves only on an actual permanent departure, not just a resignation announcement, election result, or temporary suspension. PolySpotter is tracking $3,276 in smart money activity, including a recent signal from a proven winner buying No.

This market will resolve according to the first listed individual who ceases to occupy their listed office. An announcement of a resignation/removal, or a scheduled departure from office due to the outcome of an election, will not alone qualify. Only permanent removal from office will qualify for resolution. Temporary removals, such as impeachment suspensions (e.g., Yoon Suk Yeol's recent impeachment), temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment, or any similar provisional transfers of power, will not count. Additionally, if an individual continues in a caretaker or interim role (e.g., Gabriel Attal remaining as caretaker Prime Minister of France), they will not be considered to have ceased occupying the office for the purposes of this market. If this criterion has not been met for any of the listed individuals by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “None before 2027”. No additional individuals will be added to this market after its creation. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.

1 smart money signal detected, totaling $3,276.

Categories: Politics, Geopolitics, Starmer, Rewards 20, 4.5, 50

Notable Trades

Proven winner buys No

A highly experienced profitable wallet is effectively buying No on Petro being the next leader out, despite only a weak low-activity size signal.

  • This bettor has won 83% of 1,318 resolved trades and is up $48K lifetime.
  • The trade is a $3.3K effective buy of No, larger than half the flagged 24h market volume.
  • They are fading the Yes side after a sharp move down, entering No around 61¢.

$3,276 on No | Wallet win rate: 83%

Top Holders

  1. 0xa5ef...2966 No, $198,246
  2. 0xf5e8...9fbd Yes, $21,131
  3. 0xb886...81b3 Yes, $14,358 (53% win rate)
  4. 0x2517...065d Yes, $13,340 (53% win rate)
  5. 0xe6a0...61f3 Yes, $9,354
  6. 0xf422...baa9 Yes, $8,158 (84% win rate)
  7. 0xbefa...300d Yes, $7,888
  8. 0xafbe...eb19 Yes, $7,249
  9. 0x9d84...1344 Yes, $7,086 (42% win rate)
  10. 0xfb51...742d Yes, $7,083 (69% win rate)

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Will Gustavo Petro be the next leader out before 2027?

164dNext leader out of power before 2027? (No Orban)$3,276 tracked1 signalPoliticsGeopoliticsStarmerRewards 20, 4.5, 50
Yes
0¢
No
100¢

This market will resolve according to the first listed individual who ceases to occupy their listed office. An announcement of a resignation/removal, or a scheduled departure from office due to the outcome of an election, will not alone qualify. Only permanent removal from office will qualify for resolution. Temporary removals, such as impeachment suspensions (e.g., Yoon Suk Yeol's recent impeachment), temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment, or any similar provisional transfers of power, will not count. Additionally, if an individual continues in a caretaker or interim role (e.g., Gabriel Attal remaining as caretaker Prime Minister of France), they will not be considered to have ceased occupying the office for the purposes of this market. If this criterion has not been met for any of the listed individuals by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “None before 2027”. No additional individuals will be added to this market after its creation. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.

Price History — “No
102¢
100¢
97¢
Alert entriesHigh-conviction

Notable Trades

Will Gustavo Petro be the next leader out before 2027?

30d ago

$3,276 on No at 61¢

61¢100¢39¢

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