Part of: GPT-6 released by…?
Will GPT-6 be released by December 31, 2026?
This prediction market asks whether OpenAI will make GPT-6 publicly available by December 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET. An open beta or public rolling waitlist qualifies, while closed beta or private access does not; the market currently tracks $2,581 in smart money across one signal.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if OpenAI's GPT-6 model is made available to the general public by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." For this market to resolve to "Yes," GPT-6 must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be clearly defined and publicly announced by OpenAI as being accessible to the general public. GPT-6 refers to a product explicitly named GPT-6 (e.g. ChatGPT-6o would count), or one that is recognized as a successor to GPT-5, similar to the progression from GPT-3 to GPT-4. Products labeled as GPT-5.5 or similar will not count for this market's resolution. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OpenAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
3 smart money signals detected, totaling $5,125.
Categories: OpenAI, GPT-5, Big Tech, AI, Tech, sam altman, AI Releases
Notable Trades
Serial cross-market GPT-6 bull
A serial cross-market trader with 111 resolved bets and 70% wins increased bullish GPT-6 exposure by selling No at an effective Yes price of 76¢, though the trade appears partly related to an existing position.
- This bettor has traded 40 markets across 27 events, with 78 wins in 111 resolved bets and $281,000 lifetime profit.
- Selling No at 24¢ is equivalent to buying Yes at 76¢, adding bullish exposure while already holding a $4,059 Yes position.
- The market has risen 18 percentage points this week, but the current 90¢ ask is above the suggested copy ceiling.
$2,581 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 70%
Contrarian bet in a thin market
A profitable but not especially sharp serial trader made a sizable contrarian bet against Yes in an unusually thin market.
- The wallet sold $1,266 of Yes at 89¢, equivalent to buying No at 11¢.
- The trade was more than 8,000% of the market’s flagged 24-hour volume, signaling meaningful conviction in a quiet market.
- This trader has 1,365 resolved bets and is up $159,000, though its 58% win rate is not exceptionally strong.
$1,278 on No | Wallet win rate: 67%
Contrarian bet in a thin market
A profitable but not especially sharp serial trader made a sizable contrarian bet against Yes in an unusually thin market.
- The wallet sold $1,266 of Yes at 89¢, equivalent to buying No at 11¢.
- The trade was more than 8,000% of the market’s flagged 24-hour volume, signaling meaningful conviction in a quiet market.
- This trader has 1,365 resolved bets and is up $159,000, though its 58% win rate is not exceptionally strong.
$1,266 on No | Wallet win rate: 67%
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