This bettor has won 76% of 530 resolved trades and is up $8,948 lifetime. They bought No at 89¢, backing the already-favored view that Díaz-Canel remains president through June 30. The bet was 72% of recent 24h volume, making it a meaningful position in a relatively quiet market.

This bettor wins 90% of resolved bets and is up $288k lifetime. The $1.6k buy was 57% of the market’s 24h volume, showing conviction in a quiet market. Entry at 82¢ implies a steady-status-quo view, despite recent movement against Yes.

Part of: Miguel Díaz-Canel out as President of Cuba by June 30?

Miguel Díaz-Canel out as President of Cuba by June 30?

4 smart money signals detected, totaling $7,380.

Categories: Politics, Cuba, Geopolitics

Notable Trades

Profitable serial cross-market bettor

Profitable high-volume serial trader bought $3.1k of No, a size equal to over half the market’s 24h volume, on a plausible politics information market.

This bettor is up $270k lifetime across 1,551 resolved bets.
The $3.1k No buy was over half of the market’s recent daily volume.
They have traded 375 markets across 165 events, suggesting a broad repeatable strategy.

$3,115 on No | Wallet win rate: 62%

76% winner buying NO

Surface despite the weak low-activity signal because the bettor has a long profitable record and is buying No in a plausible politics market.

This bettor has won 76% of 530 resolved trades and is up $8,948 lifetime.
They bought No at 89¢, backing the already-favored view that Díaz-Canel remains president through June 30.
The bet was 72% of recent 24h volume, making it a meaningful position in a relatively quiet market.

$1,424 on No | Wallet win rate: 76%

96% winner buying YES

Surfacing despite the weak low-activity signal because the wallet has a very strong resolved record and is effectively buying Yes on a quiet political market.

This bettor has won 96% of 266 resolved bets and is up $14.5k lifetime.
They are effectively buying Yes at 13¢ by selling No at 87¢.
The $1.3k trade is large versus roughly $2k of recent daily volume.

$1,275 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 96%

90% winner buying NO

Sharp profitable wallet with a 90% resolved-bet win rate is buying No on a quiet political market, with the trade large relative to recent volume.

This bettor wins 90% of resolved bets and is up $288k lifetime.
The $1.6k buy was 57% of the market’s 24h volume, showing conviction in a quiet market.
Entry at 82¢ implies a steady-status-quo view, despite recent movement against Yes.

$1,566 on No | Wallet win rate: 91%

Top Holders

0x6b3f...43dc — Outcome 12189012, $8,323
0x859d...fccb — Outcome 12189012, $6,181
0x0e39...7c1d — Outcome 12189012, $3,267
0xb6e1...ec41 — Outcome 12189012, $2,419
0xce2a...75eb — Outcome 12189012, $2,237
0x4785...8ca0 — Outcome 12189012, $1,624
0x9a06...3800 — Outcome 12189012, $1,580 (81% win rate)
0x5494...faac — Outcome 12189012, $1,119 (61% win rate)
0x257f...12fc — Outcome 12189012, $935
0xb8ee...9e81 — Outcome 12189012, $915 (67% win rate)

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Miguel Díaz-Canel out as President of Cuba by June 30?

ResolvedMiguel Díaz-Canel out as President of Cuba by June 30?$7,380 tracked4 signalsPoliticsCubaGeopolitics

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Miguel Díaz-Canel ceases to be the President of Cuba for any period of time between November 18, 2025 and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement of Miguel Díaz-Canel's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect. The resolution source for this market will be the government of Cuba, however a consensus of credible reporting will also suffice.