Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $90 in April?
This Polymarket asks whether the active-month WTI crude oil futures contract will print a 1-minute candle low of $90 or below at any time before the end of April 2026. It resolves to Yes if that price is touched on the contract’s final low during the market window, and No if WTI stays above $90 throughout. Recent smart money alerts on this market include multiple sharp traders buying No, with $1,560 in tracked smart money so far.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if, at any point between market creation and the final trading day during April 2026, any 1-minute candle for the Active Month of WTI Crude Oil futures has a final "Low" price equal to or below the listed price. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For WTI futures, the active month refers to the nearest listed contract month. The active month changes at 6:00:00 PM ET at the start of the trading session two business days prior to that contract's last trading day, at which point the next listed contract becomes the active month. For WTI Crude Oil (CL) futures, the last trading day is defined as three business days prior to the 25th calendar day of the month preceding the contract's delivery month (or four business days prior if the 25th calendar day is not a business day), consistent with CME contract specifications. Only prices achieved during the applicable trading session for the underlying market will be considered. Under the standard schedule, trading is open from 6:00:00 PM ET Sunday through 5:00:00 PM ET Friday, with a daily break from 5:00:00 PM ET to 6:00:00 PM ET, except where modified by holiday or special-session hours as listed on Pyth. Prices will be used exactly as published by Pyth, without rounding. If the Active Month contract does not trade at all during the listed time frame, this market will resolve to "No". In the event of a contract specification change, feed change, or similar structural modification affecting the underlying market during the listed time frame, this market will resolve based on adjusted prices as displayed on Pyth. The resolution source for this market is Pyth — specifically, the Active Month WTI Crude Oil futures "Low" prices available at https://pythdata.app/explore?search=WTI, with the chart settings configured for 1-minute candles. Historical 1-minute candles may be accessed by appending a Unix timestamp (seconds) to the Pyth chart URL using the "t=" parameter. If the relevant Pyth data is unavailable due to a system outage, data failure, or other technical disruption that prevents verification of the required 1-minute candle data, the official daily low price published for the Active Month WTI Crude Oil (CL) futures contract by CME Group may be used to determine whether the listed price was reached during the applicable trading session.
9 smart money signals detected, totaling $32,862.
Categories: Finance, Monthly, Hit Price, Finance Updown, Commodities, Oil
Notable Trades
88% winner fading oil
A high-win-rate trader with a strong resolved track record is fading this oil threshold market by selling Yes at 78¢, which translates to buying No at 22¢.
- This bettor wins 88% of resolved trades and is up about $387k lifetime.
- They sold Yes at 78¢, which is equivalent to buying No at 22¢ on this market.
- The trade is modest in size, but it comes from a proven trader with a history of beating the odds.
$1,560 on No | Wallet win rate: 88%
New whale in WTI
A 2-day-old wallet is making repeated large bets across this WTI event during a sharp volume spike, suggesting fresh conviction worth watching despite no proven track record yet.
- A 2-day-old wallet just made a $5.5k buy and has already been flagged twice for $7.7k total in this event
- Market activity jumped 17.9x above normal, so this bet landed as money started rushing into the same theme
- The trader paid 81¢ in a liquid market, showing clear conviction that this contract is still undervalued
$5,451 on Yes
88% win-rate sharp
A highly profitable sharp wallet with an 88% win rate bought Yes at 80¢ into a strong event-wide volume surge, making this a credible follow signal despite only one trade.
- This bettor wins 88% of resolved trades and is up about $380k lifetime
- They bought Yes at 80¢ while this event saw a 17.9x jump in trading activity
- They also bet across 2 related oil markets, suggesting a broader thesis rather than a one-off trade
$3,174 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 88%
Profitable oil thesis trader
A profitable wallet with 79 resolved bets is building a multi-market WTI thesis, and this buy came after a sharp 12-point price drop on a liquid market.
- This bettor wins 71% of their trades and is up about $119k across 79 resolved markets
- They have put nearly $60k across 3 related WTI markets, which points to a broader oil view rather than a one-off bet
- Bought Yes at 69¢ after this market fell 12 points in a day, suggesting they see the pullback as mispriced
$6,503 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 71%
Sharp trio buying No
Three wallets piled into No for nearly $7k on a heavily moving oil market, including one bettor with a 78% win rate and $565k profit, making this coordinated flow worth tracking despite only a moderate composite score.
- One wallet in this cluster wins 78% of 1,019 resolved bets and is up $565k lifetime
- Three wallets all took the No side within minutes for $6.9k total as the market swung 22 points in a day
- They entered No around 35-36¢, meaning they see the chance of WTI hitting $90 this month as lower than the market implies
$6,906 on No
Sharp oil thesis bettor
A highly profitable wallet with a 78% win rate is taking a cross-market oil thesis by buying No at 32¢, making this a credible sharp bettor signal despite only a moderate composite score.
- This bettor wins 78% of resolved trades and is up about $565k overall
- They have put $36k across 4 related oil markets, pointing to a broader event view rather than a one-off bet
- Buying No at 32¢ means they see the market as overpriced after a 10.5-point one-day move
$2,945 on No | Wallet win rate: 78%
Pro oil-event sharp
A high-volume, profitable wallet with a 78% win rate is expressing the same cross-market oil thesis again by buying No at 32¢, making this a credible trader worth following despite only one active signal.
- This bettor wins 78% of 1,019 resolved trades and is up about $565k lifetime
- They have bet nearly $46.8k across 4 related oil markets, pointing to a broader event thesis rather than a one-off trade
- Buying No at 32¢ means they think this downside oil level is less likely than the market implies
$3,320 on No | Wallet win rate: 78%
Proven oil-event bettor
A highly profitable wallet with a 78% win rate is taking the No side across four related WTI range markets, suggesting a broader directional thesis rather than a one-off trade.
- This bettor wins 78% of their trades and is up $565k across more than 1,000 resolved markets
- They placed $43k across 4 related WTI markets, pointing to a coordinated view on oil price levels
- Bought No at 31¢ while the market still prices Yes at 70%, a clear contrarian stance with defined risk
$1,985 on No | Wallet win rate: 78%
Profitable oil-event thesis trader
A historically profitable cross-market trader with 372 resolved bets bought No at 20¢ into a sharp volume and price move, suggesting a broader oil-event thesis rather than random flow.
- This bettor has 372 resolved trades, wins 73% of the time, and is up $83k
- They are betting across 7 related oil markets with $151.7k total, which points to a coordinated event thesis
- Bought No at 20¢ after a 22.8x volume spike and a 32-point move, while the market still prices Yes at 80%
$1,017 on No | Wallet win rate: 73%
Top Holders
- 0x32b4...8b21 — Yes, $256,725 (64% win rate)
- 0x4bbe...2cf3 — No, $150,513 (78% win rate)
- 0xff30...4a37 — Yes, $51,678
- 0xe94b...5abe — No, $50,943 (73% win rate)
- 0xe734...4f0c — Yes, $50,904 (39% win rate)
- 0x9c16...a981 — No, $33,057
- 0x7334...81da — No, $14,355 (27% win rate)
- 0x3d18...1160 — No, $13,914 (100% win rate)
- 0x3096...58a3 — No, $13,174 (72% win rate)
- 0x4fd2...48e6 — Yes, $12,600
