Part of: Will AfD win an absolute majority of seats in Sachsen-Anhalt?
Will AfD win an absolute majority of seats in Sachsen-Anhalt?
12 smart money signals detected, totaling $30,441.
Categories: Politics, Global Elections, Elections, German Elections, Germany, Saxony-Anhalt, Sachsen-Anhalt, International Election Props
Notable Trades
Five-wallet No conviction cluster
Five wallets concentrated $8,551 on No, including a highly profitable 83% winner, though the position has moved against them and several traders were already exposed.
- Five wallets committed $8,551 to No at roughly 78–81¢, a meaningful position relative to the market’s $11,973 liquidity.
- One bettor wins 83% of 249 resolved trades and is up $1.3M, providing strong evidence of genuine skill.
- No has since fallen to 72%, so the trade is currently underwater; several wallets were already holding No, making this less clean than a completely new cluster.
$8,551 on No
Sharp serial political bettor
Proven high-performing wallet with an 85% win rate and $1.07M profit is buying No on a long-dated German election market.
- This bettor wins 85% of resolved trades and is up $1.07M lifetime.
- They have traded across 42 events and 57 markets, suggesting a repeatable cross-market edge.
- Buying No at 61¢ goes against a market where Yes has recently drifted lower, reinforcing the bearish AfD-majority view.
$2,816 on No | Wallet win rate: 82%
Sharp bettor scaling into Yes
A highly profitable bettor with an 82% win rate and substantial historical edge is adding to a Yes position at 30%.
- This bettor has won 82% of 109 resolved trades and is up $25,454 lifetime.
- They are adding $1,800 to an existing Yes position, with roughly $16,737 already invested at 30¢.
- Yes has risen 6% over the past week, while the 30¢ entry implies meaningful upside if AfD wins an absolute majority.
$1,539 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 79%
Sharp bettor scaling into Yes
A highly profitable bettor with an 82% win rate and substantial historical edge is adding to a Yes position at 30%.
- This bettor has won 82% of 109 resolved trades and is up $25,454 lifetime.
- They are adding $1,800 to an existing Yes position, with roughly $16,737 already invested at 30¢.
- Yes has risen 6% over the past week, while the 30¢ entry implies meaningful upside if AfD wins an absolute majority.
$2,203 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 79%
Sharp bettor scaling into Yes
A highly profitable bettor with an 82% win rate and substantial historical edge is adding to a Yes position at 30%.
- This bettor has won 82% of 109 resolved trades and is up $25,454 lifetime.
- They are adding $1,800 to an existing Yes position, with roughly $16,737 already invested at 30¢.
- Yes has risen 6% over the past week, while the 30¢ entry implies meaningful upside if AfD wins an absolute majority.
$2,787 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 79%
Sharp bettor scaling into Yes
A highly profitable bettor with an 82% win rate and substantial historical edge is adding to a Yes position at 30%.
- This bettor has won 82% of 109 resolved trades and is up $25,454 lifetime.
- They are adding $1,800 to an existing Yes position, with roughly $16,737 already invested at 30¢.
- Yes has risen 6% over the past week, while the 30¢ entry implies meaningful upside if AfD wins an absolute majority.
$1,739 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 79%
Sharp bettor scaling into Yes
A highly profitable bettor with an 82% win rate and substantial historical edge is adding to a Yes position at 30%.
- This bettor has won 82% of 109 resolved trades and is up $25,454 lifetime.
- They are adding $1,800 to an existing Yes position, with roughly $16,737 already invested at 30¢.
- Yes has risen 6% over the past week, while the 30¢ entry implies meaningful upside if AfD wins an absolute majority.
$1,800 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 79%
Sharp serial political bettor
Proven high-performing wallet with an 85% win rate and $1.07M profit is buying No on a long-dated German election market.
- This bettor wins 85% of resolved trades and is up $1.07M lifetime.
- They have traded across 42 events and 57 markets, suggesting a repeatable cross-market edge.
- Buying No at 61¢ goes against a market where Yes has recently drifted lower, reinforcing the bearish AfD-majority view.
$1,707 on No | Wallet win rate: 82%
85% winner buying No
A proven profitable wallet with an 85% resolved-bet win rate is taking the No side against AfD winning an absolute majority.
- This bettor wins 85% of resolved trades and is up $1,157 lifetime.
- They are betting against AfD winning an outright seat majority, effectively buying No at 60¢.
- The $1.3K trade is meaningful versus only $3.9K traded in the past day.
$1,274 on No | Wallet win rate: 70%
88% winner re-enters Yes
Sharp political bettor with an 88% resolved win rate and +$27k lifetime P&L is re-entering Yes on AfD absolute majority at 42¢.
- This bettor wins 88% of resolved trades and is up $27k lifetime.
- They previously held Yes here, closed it, and are now buying back in at 42¢.
- Entry at 42¢ implies they see meaningful upside versus the current 40% market odds.
$1,137 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 79%
Top Holders
- 0xcff6...ada1 — Outcome 11073306, $313,079
- 0xd352...4ad6 — Outcome 11073306, $56,038 (48% win rate)
- 0x68c2...1711 — Outcome 11073306, $34,010 (53% win rate)
- 0x94c4...43ca — Outcome 11073306, $33,798 (76% win rate)
- 0xbc8c...273f — Outcome 11073306, $24,676 (73% win rate)
- 0xb619...5068 — Outcome 11073306, $7,529 (53% win rate)
- 0xbc60...de38 — Outcome 11073306, $7,258
- 0x1f51...531e — Outcome 11073306, $7,000
- 0xdf02...7d31 — Outcome 11073306, $6,599
- 0xfb68...a240 — Outcome 11073306, $5,323 (97% win rate)
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