Part of: Will AfD win an absolute majority of seats in Sachsen-Anhalt?
Will AfD win an absolute majority of seats in Sachsen-Anhalt?
Parliamentary elections to elect the Landtag of Sachsen-Anhalt are scheduled to take place on September 6, 2026. This market will resolve to "Yes" if the party Alternative for Germany (AfD) wins an absolute majority of seats in the state parliament of Sachsen-Anhalt (Landtag) as a result of this election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If voting in the Sachsen-Anhalt election for the Landtag does not occur or the results are not known definitively by January 31, 2027, this market will resolve to "No". This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party. This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published on the official website of the Landtag of Sachsen-Anhalt (https://www.landtag.sachsen-anhalt.de/).
12 smart money signals detected, totaling $30,441.
Categories: Politics, Global Elections, Elections, German Elections, Germany, Saxony-Anhalt, Sachsen-Anhalt, International Election Props
Notable Trades
Five-wallet No conviction cluster
Five wallets concentrated $8,551 on No, including a highly profitable 83% winner, though the position has moved against them and several traders were already exposed.
- Five wallets committed $8,551 to No at roughly 78–81¢, a meaningful position relative to the market’s $11,973 liquidity.
- One bettor wins 83% of 249 resolved trades and is up $1.3M, providing strong evidence of genuine skill.
- No has since fallen to 72%, so the trade is currently underwater; several wallets were already holding No, making this less clean than a completely new cluster.
$8,551 on No
Sharp serial political bettor
Proven high-performing wallet with an 85% win rate and $1.07M profit is buying No on a long-dated German election market.
- This bettor wins 85% of resolved trades and is up $1.07M lifetime.
- They have traded across 42 events and 57 markets, suggesting a repeatable cross-market edge.
- Buying No at 61¢ goes against a market where Yes has recently drifted lower, reinforcing the bearish AfD-majority view.
$2,816 on No | Wallet win rate: 81%
Sharp bettor scaling into Yes
A highly profitable bettor with an 82% win rate and substantial historical edge is adding to a Yes position at 30%.
- This bettor has won 82% of 109 resolved trades and is up $25,454 lifetime.
- They are adding $1,800 to an existing Yes position, with roughly $16,737 already invested at 30¢.
- Yes has risen 6% over the past week, while the 30¢ entry implies meaningful upside if AfD wins an absolute majority.
$1,539 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 77%
Sharp bettor scaling into Yes
A highly profitable bettor with an 82% win rate and substantial historical edge is adding to a Yes position at 30%.
- This bettor has won 82% of 109 resolved trades and is up $25,454 lifetime.
- They are adding $1,800 to an existing Yes position, with roughly $16,737 already invested at 30¢.
- Yes has risen 6% over the past week, while the 30¢ entry implies meaningful upside if AfD wins an absolute majority.
$2,203 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 77%
Sharp bettor scaling into Yes
A highly profitable bettor with an 82% win rate and substantial historical edge is adding to a Yes position at 30%.
- This bettor has won 82% of 109 resolved trades and is up $25,454 lifetime.
- They are adding $1,800 to an existing Yes position, with roughly $16,737 already invested at 30¢.
- Yes has risen 6% over the past week, while the 30¢ entry implies meaningful upside if AfD wins an absolute majority.
$2,787 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 77%
Sharp bettor scaling into Yes
A highly profitable bettor with an 82% win rate and substantial historical edge is adding to a Yes position at 30%.
- This bettor has won 82% of 109 resolved trades and is up $25,454 lifetime.
- They are adding $1,800 to an existing Yes position, with roughly $16,737 already invested at 30¢.
- Yes has risen 6% over the past week, while the 30¢ entry implies meaningful upside if AfD wins an absolute majority.
$1,739 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 77%
Sharp bettor scaling into Yes
A highly profitable bettor with an 82% win rate and substantial historical edge is adding to a Yes position at 30%.
- This bettor has won 82% of 109 resolved trades and is up $25,454 lifetime.
- They are adding $1,800 to an existing Yes position, with roughly $16,737 already invested at 30¢.
- Yes has risen 6% over the past week, while the 30¢ entry implies meaningful upside if AfD wins an absolute majority.
$1,800 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 77%
Sharp serial political bettor
Proven high-performing wallet with an 85% win rate and $1.07M profit is buying No on a long-dated German election market.
- This bettor wins 85% of resolved trades and is up $1.07M lifetime.
- They have traded across 42 events and 57 markets, suggesting a repeatable cross-market edge.
- Buying No at 61¢ goes against a market where Yes has recently drifted lower, reinforcing the bearish AfD-majority view.
$1,707 on No | Wallet win rate: 81%
85% winner buying No
A proven profitable wallet with an 85% resolved-bet win rate is taking the No side against AfD winning an absolute majority.
- This bettor wins 85% of resolved trades and is up $1,157 lifetime.
- They are betting against AfD winning an outright seat majority, effectively buying No at 60¢.
- The $1.3K trade is meaningful versus only $3.9K traded in the past day.
$1,274 on No | Wallet win rate: 72%
88% winner re-enters Yes
Sharp political bettor with an 88% resolved win rate and +$27k lifetime P&L is re-entering Yes on AfD absolute majority at 42¢.
- This bettor wins 88% of resolved trades and is up $27k lifetime.
- They previously held Yes here, closed it, and are now buying back in at 42¢.
- Entry at 42¢ implies they see meaningful upside versus the current 40% market odds.
$1,137 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 77%
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