What is the Samuel Alito retirement prediction market?

It is a prediction market on whether Samuel Alito will announce that he is retiring as an Associate Justice of the U.S. Supreme Court by June 30, 2027, at 11:59 PM ET.

What outcome qualifies for a Yes resolution?

The market resolves Yes if Alito makes a qualifying retirement announcement by the deadline, whether the retirement is immediate, at the end of the current Supreme Court term, or later.

When does the Alito retirement market resolve?

The market is scheduled to resolve on July 1, 2027, after the June 30, 2027 announcement deadline.

What is smart money saying about Samuel Alito retirement odds?

Tracked smart money activity currently favors No. The market page reports $1,012 in tracked smart money and one signal, with recent alerts showing purchases of No.

Part of: Will Samuel Alito announce his retirement by...?

Will Samuel Alito announce his retirement by June 30, 2027?

This prediction market asks whether Supreme Court Associate Justice Samuel Alito will announce his retirement by June 30, 2027, at 11:59 PM ET. The market currently shows smart money activity favoring No, with $1,012 tracked across one signal, and resolves on July 1, 2027.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Samuel Alito announces that he will retire from his position as Associate Justice of the Supreme Court of the United States by the specified date at 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The announced timing of his retirement may be immediate, at the end of the current Supreme Court term, or at any point in the future. Any qualifying announcement from Alito will count for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether the announced retirement goes into effect. The resolution source for this market will be official announcements from Alito or one of his official representatives.

4 smart money signals detected, totaling $9,209.

Categories: Politics, Supreme Court , Courts, Alito, SCOTUS

Notable Trades

Serial trader scaling into No

A consistently active, profitable trader is adding to a sizable No position while holding bets across four markets tied to the same event.

This trader has a 68% win rate across 2,152 resolved bets and is up $176,186 lifetime.
They added $3,338 to No and have $7,908 invested in the position, with bets across four related markets.
No is trading at 59¢ after the trader entered at 57¢; the market has only $781 in 24-hour volume.

$3,338 on No | Wallet win rate: 68%

Profitable 89% winner buys NO

Despite a weak low-activity signal, this is worth surfacing because the buyer has a strong 102-bet track record and is profitable lifetime.

This bettor wins 89% of resolved trades and is up $19.8k lifetime.
They put $3.7k on No in a relatively thin market with only $7.6k traded in the last 24 hours.
Entry at 49¢ implies they see Alito not announcing retirement by June 2027 as underpriced.

$1,012 on No | Wallet win rate: 91%

Profitable 89% winner buys NO

Despite a weak low-activity signal, this is worth surfacing because the buyer has a strong 102-bet track record and is profitable lifetime.

This bettor wins 89% of resolved trades and is up $19.8k lifetime.
They put $3.7k on No in a relatively thin market with only $7.6k traded in the last 24 hours.
Entry at 49¢ implies they see Alito not announcing retirement by June 2027 as underpriced.

$1,128 on No | Wallet win rate: 91%

Profitable 89% winner buys NO

Despite a weak low-activity signal, this is worth surfacing because the buyer has a strong 102-bet track record and is profitable lifetime.

This bettor wins 89% of resolved trades and is up $19.8k lifetime.
They put $3.7k on No in a relatively thin market with only $7.6k traded in the last 24 hours.
Entry at 49¢ implies they see Alito not announcing retirement by June 2027 as underpriced.

$3,730 on No | Wallet win rate: 91%