What is the Samuel Alito retirement prediction market?

It is a prediction market on whether Samuel Alito will announce his retirement as an Associate Justice of the U.S. Supreme Court by June 30, 2027, at 11:59 PM ET.

What would make this market resolve Yes?

The market resolves Yes if Alito announces that he will retire by the specified deadline. The announcement may state an immediate retirement, retirement at the end of a Supreme Court term, or retirement at a later date.

When does the Samuel Alito retirement market resolve?

The market resolves on June 30, 2027, at 11:59 PM Eastern Time, unless a qualifying announcement determines the outcome earlier under the market rules.

What is the current smart money activity?

PolySpotter tracks $1,128 in smart money for this market across one signal. The recorded signal was a purchase of No by a trader with an 89% profitable-trade rate.

Part of: Will Samuel Alito announce his retirement by...?

Will Samuel Alito announce his retirement by June 30, 2027?

This prediction market asks whether Supreme Court Justice Samuel Alito will announce his retirement by June 30, 2027, at 11:59 PM ET. It resolves Yes if Alito makes a qualifying retirement announcement by the deadline and No otherwise; the market currently tracks $1,128 in smart money across one signal, which was a No purchase.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Samuel Alito announces that he will retire from his position as Associate Justice of the Supreme Court of the United States by the specified date at 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The announced timing of his retirement may be immediate, at the end of the current Supreme Court term, or at any point in the future. Any qualifying announcement from Alito will count for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether the announced retirement goes into effect. The resolution source for this market will be official announcements from Alito or one of his official representatives.

2 smart money signals detected, totaling $4,858.

Categories: Supreme Court , Courts, Politics, Alito, SCOTUS

Notable Trades

Profitable 89% winner buys NO

Despite a weak low-activity signal, this is worth surfacing because the buyer has a strong 102-bet track record and is profitable lifetime.

This bettor wins 89% of resolved trades and is up $19.8k lifetime.
They put $3.7k on No in a relatively thin market with only $7.6k traded in the last 24 hours.
Entry at 49¢ implies they see Alito not announcing retirement by June 2027 as underpriced.

$1,128 on No | Wallet win rate: 91%

Profitable 89% winner buys NO

Despite a weak low-activity signal, this is worth surfacing because the buyer has a strong 102-bet track record and is profitable lifetime.

This bettor wins 89% of resolved trades and is up $19.8k lifetime.
They put $3.7k on No in a relatively thin market with only $7.6k traded in the last 24 hours.
Entry at 49¢ implies they see Alito not announcing retirement by June 2027 as underpriced.

$3,730 on No | Wallet win rate: 91%