Part of: Claude 5 released by…?

Will Claude 5 be released by June 30, 2026?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Anthropic's Claude 5 model is made available to the general public by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." For this market to resolve to "Yes," Claude 5 must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be clearly defined and publicly announced by Anthropic as being accessible to the general public. Claude 5 refers to a product explicitly named Claude 5 (e.g. Claude 5.0 would count), or one that is recognized as a successor to Claude 4, similar to the progression from Claude 2 to Claude 3. Products labeled as Claude 4.5 or similar will not count for this market's resolution. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Anthropic, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.

12 smart money signals detected, totaling $51,405.

Categories: AI, Tech, Claude 5

Notable Trades

Brand-new whale buying Yes

A 2-hour-old wallet is repeatedly placing large Yes bets into strong upward momentum on a plausible AI-release market.

A wallet created just 2 hours ago has already made $10.4K in flagged large bets.
It bought $6.5K of Yes around 73¢ as the market surged 30 points in the past day.
This is fresh conviction on a real product-release market, not routine position management.

$6,468 on Yes

Fresh wallet buying momentum

A 2-hour-old wallet has already placed repeated large Yes bets totaling $7.6k into a fast-rising Claude 5 release market.

A brand-new wallet is already betting size, with $7.6k in flagged Yes buys within its first few hours.
The market has moved sharply toward Yes, up 28.5 points in 24 hours and 48.5 points over the week.
Buying at 72¢ suggests the bettor still sees value despite the recent surge.

$3,595 on Yes

Repeat new-wallet AI bull

A 12-day-old wallet is making its third flagged large bet, buying $4.5k of Yes into strong upward momentum on a plausible AI release market.

This 12-day-old wallet has already made 3 flagged large bets totaling $13k.
They bought $4.5k of Yes at 71¢ as the market jumped 28.5 points in the last day.
The wallet is early but profitable so far, up $5.8k on $27k invested.

$4,507 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 84%

Profitable 81% winner buying Yes

Surface because a proven profitable wallet with an 81% resolved-bet record is buying Yes into strong market momentum.

This bettor wins 81% of resolved bets and is up about $5k lifetime.
Their past wins beat market odds by 23 percentage points on average, suggesting real edge.
Yes has already moved up 25 points today, and this trade adds with momentum at 65¢.

$1,009 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 81%

Profitable serial cross-market trader

Profitable serial cross-market trader with a large multi-market Claude thesis bought Yes despite the market pulling back below entry.

This bettor has won 67% of 1,400 resolved trades and is up $78,832 lifetime.
They have traded 286 events and built a $20,335 position across 3 related markets here.
Bought Yes at 39¢, implying they see meaningful upside before the June 2026 deadline.

$1,552 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 67%

75% serial cross-market bettor

Sharp 75% lifetime bettor with a serial cross-market pattern is selling No, effectively moving exposure toward Yes despite previously holding No.

This bettor has won 75% of 167 resolved trades and is up $35.7k lifetime.
They have traded across 26 related events with $175k total volume, suggesting a repeatable cross-market approach.
Selling No at 63¢ is equivalent to buying Yes around 37¢.

$1,947 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 75%

Serial bettor buying No

Positive serial cross-market trader put $3.2k on No in a relatively quiet Claude 5 release market, with one earlier No entry already moving strongly in their favor.

This bettor has traded across 29 events and is profitable over 87 resolved bets.
They put $3.2k on No, a large share of recent volume in this relatively quiet market.
One No entry was at 32¢ and the market is now around 78¢, so the position has already moved sharply their way.

$3,199 on No | Wallet win rate: 51%

Profitable cross-market No buyer

Profitable 160-bet wallet is re-entering No with a $6k buy, alongside a broader cross-market thesis on the same AI-release event.

This bettor has won 74% of 160 resolved trades and is up $32k lifetime.
They bought $6k of No at 83¢, a large bet relative to recent activity in this market.
They have traded 3 related markets in the same event, suggesting a broader thesis rather than a one-off bet.

$6,013 on No | Wallet win rate: 75%

Profitable 8-market thesis bettor

Profitable wallet is building a broader cross-market Claude 5 thesis, with $70k across 8 related markets and a fresh Yes buy at 28¢.

This bettor is up $110k lifetime while trading across 185 resolved markets.
They have put $70k across 8 related markets, suggesting a broader Claude 5 release thesis.
Entry at 28¢ implies a roughly 3.6x payout if Claude 5 launches by the deadline.

$1,583 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 52%

Proven Anthropic thesis trader

Profitable high-volume cross-market trader with 601 resolved bets is adding to a broader Anthropic thesis as this market breaks higher.

This bettor has 601 resolved bets, wins 67% of them, and is up $235k overall.
They have put $21.9k across 6 related Claude markets, showing a coordinated thesis rather than a one-off punt.
They bought Yes at 79¢ while the market is up 9 points in a day and 23.5 points in a week, confirming strong momentum.

$3,852 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 70%