Part of: Claude Fable 5 restored for US customers by…?

Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 6?

1 smart money signal detected, totaling $6,900.

Categories: Claude, Big Tech, anthropic, Claude Mythos, AI, Tech, Trump

Notable Trades

Repeat whale on thin market

Repeat high-volume wallet with positive lifetime P&L put $6.9k on Yes across a thin, wide-spread market and related event markets.

  • This bettor is up about $51k lifetime and has been flagged 54 times before for notable activity.
  • They put $6.9k on Yes, more than 2x the market’s recent 24h volume in a wide-spread order book.
  • They are also betting across 3 related markets, suggesting a broader thesis rather than a one-off trade.

$6,900 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 59%

Top Holders

  1. 0x7bc1...8db4 Outcome 93629695, $3,715 (67% win rate)
  2. 0x1dd1...a156 Outcome 93629695, $2,229 (53% win rate)
  3. 0x43ca...d04c Outcome 93629695, $1,704
  4. 0x3458...3191 Outcome 93629695, $1,640
  5. 0x15bc...d3af Outcome 93629695, $1,000
  6. 0x5a21...9318 Outcome 93629695, $760 (58% win rate)
  7. 0x58b5...02e6 Outcome 93629695, $625
  8. 0x0125...3f1a Outcome 93629695, $338
  9. 0xb17d...59ae Outcome 93629695, $250 (91% win rate)
  10. 0x571d...4e76 Outcome 93629695, $232

Related Theses

Iran deal before June

Covers 5 related markets

US-Iran meeting by July

Covers 3 related markets

Covers 2 related markets

US-Iran talks after June 19

Covers 3 related markets

US-Iran talks won't extend

Covers 1 related market

Fable 5 returns by July 2

Covers 5 related markets

US-Iran deal coming soon

Covers 2 related markets

Israel extends ceasefire soon

Covers 3 related markets

Iran stays in negotiations

Covers 2 related markets

Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 6?

ResolvedClaude Fable 5 restored for US customers by…?$6,900 tracked1 signalClaudeBig TechanthropicClaude MythosAITechTrump

On June 9, 2026, Anthropic released the AI model “Claude Fable 5” to the general public. On June 12, 2026, Anthropic suspended access to the specified model in response to a directive from the US government. This market will resolve to "Yes" if Anthropic restores access to “Claude Fable 5,” also known as “Claude Mythos,” or a model confirmed to be the same model to US customers by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." A qualifying model must be named "Claude Fable 5” or “Claude Mythos” (e.g., Claude Mythos 1, Claude Mythos 5, Claude Mythos X, would count), or be confirmed by Anthropic or by a consensus of credible reporting to be the same model as released by Anthropic on June 9, 2026. Products labeled as Claude Haiku, Sonnet, and Opus 4.7/5.0 or similar will not count for this market's resolution unless they are confirmed to be the same model released by Anthropic on June 9, 2026. For this market to resolve to "Yes," the qualifying model (as defined above) must be restored to public accessibility within the United States, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The restoration must be clearly defined and publicly announced by Anthropic as being accessible to US customers. If an otherwise qualifying restoration restricts access to certain customers based on nationality, whether geographically inside or outside of the US, that restoration will still qualify. If a qualifying model is made publicly accessible and labeled with the relevant version name within the company’s official website, this will qualify as “publicly announced”. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public under the rules will not qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Anthropic; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Notable Trades

Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 6?

18d ago

$6,900 on Yes at 76¢

Related Theses