What does the Starmer out by May 15, 2026 market predict?

This market predicts whether Keir Starmer will stop being Prime Minister of the United Kingdom for any period of time by May 15, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. It can also resolve Yes if his resignation or removal is announced before the deadline, even if the departure takes effect later.

How will this Polymarket resolve?

The market resolves to Yes if Keir Starmer ceases to be UK Prime Minister before the cutoff, or if an official resignation/removal announcement is made before the market end date. If neither happens, it resolves to No. The stated resolution source is the UK government.

When is the deadline for Starmer to be out for this market?

The key deadline is May 15, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET. The listed resolution date is June 30, 2026, allowing time for final confirmation of the outcome if needed.

What smart money activity is PolySpotter tracking on this market?

PolySpotter currently tracks $1,375 in smart money exposure and 1 smart money signal for this market. Recent alerts include sharp-wallet clusters, a Yes cluster, and profitable traders fading moves.

Why do traders follow this Starmer prediction market?

Traders follow it to gauge market-implied odds of UK political instability, leadership change, or an early departure by Keir Starmer. Prediction market prices can move as new polling, party dynamics, scandals, or official statements affect expectations.

Part of: Starmer out by...?

Starmer out by May 15, 2026?

This prediction market asks whether Keir Starmer will cease to be Prime Minister of the United Kingdom at any point by May 15, 2026, or if a resignation/removal is announced before then. It resolves to Yes if Starmer leaves office or announces a future departure before the deadline; otherwise it resolves to No. PolySpotter is tracking $1,375 in smart money activity and 1 smart money signal on this market.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Keir Starmer ceases to be the Prime Minister of the United Kingdom for any period of time between market creation and May 15, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement of Keir Starmer's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect. The resolution source for this market will be the government of the UK, however a consensus of credible reporting will also suffice.

13 smart money signals detected, totaling $53,002.

Categories: Starmer, UK, keir, Grooming Gangs, Politics, World, uk

Notable Trades

Young profitable repeat bettor

A young repeat bettor with early profits is buying Yes into strong market momentum on a politically significant market, though the stake is modest relative to liquidity.

This 23-day-old wallet is already up $1.5K and has won 6 of 7 resolved bets.
They are making another repeat-sized Yes bet after this market moved about 20 points in a day.
Entry at 28¢ implies a meaningful upside if the Starmer exit momentum continues.

$1,375 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 86%

89% win-rate political whale

A highly proven serial cross-market trader with an 89% win rate and $1.49M profit is effectively buying Yes on Starmer leaving, amid a sharp price move higher.

This bettor wins 89% of resolved trades and is up about $1.49M lifetime.
They are a serial cross-market trader across 63 events with over $14M flagged in similar activity.
Selling No at 73¢ is equivalent to buying Yes at 27¢, after Yes jumped about 20 points in 24 hours.

$2,681 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 89%

Profitable serial trader fades spike

Surfacing because this is a highly experienced cross-market trader with 499 resolved bets, 73% wins, and $731,976 lifetime profit fading the recent Starmer-out spike.

This bettor has 499 resolved bets, wins 73% of them, and is up $731,976 lifetime.
They are selling Yes after a sharp move up of about 23 points in the past day.
The trade converts to buying No at 69¢, betting Starmer stays through the deadline.

$1,438 on No | Wallet win rate: 73%

Profitable wallets chase Yes breakout

Three wallets, including two profitable bettors, are buying Yes into a sharp 24h price/volume breakout on Starmer leaving by May 15.

Three wallets are all betting Yes, putting $11.7K behind the same direction.
The market has surged 26 percentage points in 24 hours on a 13.9x volume spike.
Two leading wallets have strong records: one is up $23K with 74% wins, another is up $13K with 71% wins.

$11,658 on Yes

Profitable trader fades move

Three wallets including a high-volume profitable cross-market trader bought $8.7k of No into a major volume spike, fading a sharp Yes move on the Starmer market.

A high-volume bettor with 1,114 resolved trades is up $162.7k lifetime and led this No buy with $6.3k.
Three wallets bought the same side for $8.7k as market volume spiked 12.2x above normal.
They entered around 65–69¢ after Yes jumped about 23 points in a day, signaling a contrarian fade of the move.

$8,745 on No

Profitable serial cross-market trader

Serial cross-market trader with substantial positive P&L bought Yes on a fast-moving Starmer exit market despite only a modest composite signal.

This bettor has traded 61 markets across 30 events and is up $170K lifetime.
They bought Yes at 23¢ after the market jumped about 13 points in a day.
A 58% record over 140 resolved bets is solid given their large $7.8M total volume.

$3,400 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 58%

85% winner fades move

Elite high-volume cross-market bettor with an 85% resolved win rate and $1.3M profit is buying No despite Yes momentum in a liquid UK politics market.

This bettor wins 85% of resolved trades and is up about $1.3M lifetime.
They are a serial cross-market trader with $7.4M tracked across 154 markets.
They are buying No at 78¢ even after Yes jumped 13 points today, suggesting a confident fade of the move.

$3,531 on No | Wallet win rate: 85%

85% serial cross-market sharp

A highly profitable serial cross-market trader with an 85% win rate is buying No against a sharp recent Yes rally across multiple related markets.

This bettor wins 85% of resolved trades and is up about $1.3M lifetime.
They have traded across 103 events and are positioning across 3 related markets here with $86.7K involved.
Buying No at 76¢ fades a big Yes move after the market rose 15 points in the last day.

$2,190 on No | Wallet win rate: 85%

Serial politics trader fades move

Serial cross-market political trader with a 72% resolved win rate is buying No against a sharp recent Yes move, making this a notable contrarian position despite negative lifetime P&L.

This wallet has traded 47 events and 61 markets, with 72% of resolved bets winning.
They are taking the contrarian side after Yes jumped 11.5 points in a day and 14.6 points this week.
The position is modest but timely: buying No at 75¢ while the market now prices it closer to 79¢.

$1,650 on No | Wallet win rate: 72%

82% political cross-market bettor

A high-win-rate cross-market political bettor is effectively buying Yes amid a major volume spike and sharp 1-day price move, though lifetime P&L is negative.

This bettor wins 82% of resolved trades across 108 bets, making the wallet worth watching despite negative lifetime profit.
They are effectively buying Yes at 26¢ as this market jumps 16 points in a day on heavy volume.
The same wallet has $11.3k positioned across related Starmer markets, suggesting a broader political thesis.

$1,437 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 82%