Part of: Starmer out by...?
Starmer out by May 15, 2026?
29 smart money signals detected, totaling $156,471.
Categories: Starmer, UK, keir, Grooming Gangs, Politics, World, uk
Notable Trades
Serial cross-market No bettor
High composite alert from a serial cross-market political bettor adding to a broader No thesis amid a 17x volume spike and rapid price move, though the wallet’s lifetime P&L is negative.
- This wallet has traded 62 markets across 47 events and is now backing the same broad thesis across 3 related markets.
- The market saw a 17x volume spike and No moved up 13.6 percentage points in under 4 minutes.
- Caution: the bettor wins 72% of resolved trades but is down about $152k lifetime, so the signal is more momentum-driven than track-record-driven.
$4,469 on No | Wallet win rate: 72%
Sharp bettor flips toward Yes
Sharp 79% winner is exiting a profitable No position amid cross-market positioning and recent price movement, implying a fresh lean toward Yes despite this being partly profit-taking.
- This bettor wins 79% of resolved trades and is up $40k lifetime across more than $1M invested.
- They sold No at 89¢ after entering around 72¢, effectively backing Yes at 11¢.
- The wallet has traded 4 related markets with $23k in exposure, suggesting a broader Starmer thesis.
$1,110 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 79%
85% sharp political bettor
Surface: a highly profitable 85% win-rate political bettor is adding to a cross-market thesis with $91.6k across related Starmer markets.
- This bettor wins 85% of resolved trades and is up $1.3M lifetime.
- They have $91.6k across 3 related markets, suggesting a clear thesis rather than a one-off bet.
- Entry at 89¢ is a high-confidence bet that Starmer stays PM through the deadline.
$7,151 on No | Wallet win rate: 85%
Cross-market Starmer No flow
Surfacing due to strong repeated cross-market positioning in the same Starmer event plus a sharp upward move in No, despite this wallet's weak lifetime P&L.
- This wallet has built a $25.9K cross-market position across related Starmer markets.
- The trade followed a fast No move, with price up 13.6 percentage points in about 4 minutes.
- Entry at 89¢ is a high-conviction bet that Starmer stays through the market window.
$3,273 on No | Wallet win rate: 53%
Sharp political bettor
Sharp wallet with a 79% resolved win rate and positive lifetime P&L is reducing No exposure across a broader Starmer-related thesis, equivalent to backing Yes at 11¢.
- This bettor wins 79% of resolved trades and is up $38.7k lifetime.
- They have traded 4 related markets with about $23.6k in exposure, suggesting a broader Starmer thesis.
- Selling No at 89¢ is equivalent to backing Yes at 11¢, a low-cost position on Starmer leaving office.
$1,550 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 79%
71% cross-market bettor
Serial cross-market bettor with a 71% resolved win rate and positive lifetime P&L bought No as the market moved sharply.
- This bettor has won 71% of 79 resolved trades and is up about $25K lifetime.
- They are a serial cross-market trader, active across 41 events with $485K in flagged volume.
- Bought No at 86¢ during a fast move, signaling confidence Starmer stays in office through the deadline.
$2,179 on No | Wallet win rate: 71%
Profitable serial cross-market bettor
A highly active, profitable cross-market trader bought No on a major UK politics market while the price was moving sharply in that direction.
- This bettor has a long record: 1,047 resolved trades, 67% wins, and about $297K lifetime profit.
- They are a serial cross-market trader, with $1.19M deployed across 70 related markets.
- The No price moved sharply upward in minutes, suggesting this trade joined strong momentum.
$4,450 on No | Wallet win rate: 67%
Profitable serial politics trader
A highly active, profitable cross-market trader is buying No on a major UK politics market after a sharp one-day move toward Yes.
- This wallet has 1,047 resolved bets, wins 67%, and is up $297k lifetime.
- They are a serial cross-market trader across 48 events, with over $1.18M in flagged cross-market volume.
- Buying No at 84¢ fades today’s sharp move toward Starmer leaving, implying confidence the market overreacted.
$3,481 on No | Wallet win rate: 67%
87% winner backing No
Sharp positive-P&L wallet with an 87% resolved win rate is buying No while related market exposure and recent price action support the direction.
- This bettor wins 87% of resolved trades and is up $16.4K lifetime.
- They have $36K positioned across related markets, suggesting a broader Starmer-stays thesis.
- No moved sharply in the same window, with the bettor entering at 84¢.
$1,707 on No | Wallet win rate: 87%
83% winner buying favorite
Surfacing due to sharp-wallet override: the bettor has an 83% resolved win rate over 109 bets and is adding a cross-market No position, though their lifetime P&L is negative and entry is a heavy favorite.
- This bettor has won 83% of 109 resolved bets, making the wallet worth watching despite negative lifetime profit.
- They are positioning across 2 related markets with over $10K in exposure on the same political thesis.
- This is a high-probability favorite trade at 90¢, so the copy upside is limited but conviction appears strong.
$2,390 on No | Wallet win rate: 86%
Top Holders
- 0xfcb5...68bc — Outcome 73175703, $137,372 (30% win rate)
- 0x9648...6825 — Outcome 73175703, $71,751 (69% win rate)
- 0x1c12...79d9 — Outcome 73175703, $70,639 (17% win rate)
- 0x696a...1afe — Outcome 73175703, $24,042
- 0x9d84...1344 — Outcome 73175703, $22,874 (40% win rate)
- 0xb1a2...372a — Outcome 73175703, $20,360 (73% win rate)
- 0x71e1...45f0 — Outcome 73175703, $13,591 (59% win rate)
- 0x2478...2e62 — Outcome 73175703, $12,000 (61% win rate)
- 0x75fd...b217 — Outcome 73175703, $11,555
- 0xabbf...16a5 — Outcome 73175703, $11,494
Related Theses
Iran keeps airspace open
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Hormuz lift before June
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Iran deal after April 22
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Iran deal before June
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Starmer exits in July
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