What does the Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026 market predict?

It predicts whether Israel will announce that all ground forces have withdrawn from all Lebanese territory by the market deadline. If that announcement happens by the specified time, the market resolves to “Yes”; otherwise it resolves to “No.”

When does this Polymarket market resolve?

The market is tied to the July 31, 2026 deadline, with the description specifying 11:59 PM ET. Resolution depends on whether the qualifying Israeli withdrawal announcement occurs by then.

Would a planned future withdrawal count as Yes?

No. An announcement of a planned or future withdrawal is not enough unless Israel announces that the withdrawal of ground forces from Lebanese territory has already occurred by the deadline.

What smart-money activity is PolySpotter tracking on this market?

PolySpotter currently tracks $1,264 in smart-money activity and one signal for this market, with recent alerts including a repeat whale buying YES and an elite serial bettor buying NO.

Part of: Israel withdraws from Lebanon by...?

Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026?

Q: Does Israel need to permanently leave Lebanon for the market to resolve Yes?

Not necessarily. The rules say a “Yes” resolution is sufficient if Israel announces its ground forces have withdrawn from all Lebanese territory, even if some territory remains under Israeli control or later ground incursions occur.

This prediction market asks whether Israel will announce that all of its ground forces have withdrawn from Lebanese territory by July 31, 2026. The market resolves “Yes” based on an Israeli announcement of withdrawal, even if control disputes or later incursions continue; PolySpotter is tracking $1,264 in smart-money activity and recent whale signals on both YES and NO.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israel announces it has withdrawn all ground forces from Lebanon by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For this market to resolve to "Yes" it is sufficient that Israel announces its ground forces have withdrawn from all Lebanese territory, regardless of if some Lebanese territory remains under their control or ground incursions by Israeli forces continue. However, an announcement of a planned or future withdrawal will not suffice. The Shebaa Farms area is considered Israeli territory for the purposes of this market and will not be considered toward its resolution. The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the Israeli government, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming that Israel has withdrawn may also be used.

9 smart money signals detected, totaling $36,533.

Categories: Geopolitics, Iran Ceasefire, Iran, Lebanon, Israel, Israel x Iran

Notable Trades

Profitable linked cross-market trader

A highly profitable serial cross-market trader, backed by linked-wallet activity, is buying the 8¢ long-shot Yes side on a geopolitical market.

This bettor is up $1.19M lifetime across 1,395 resolved bets.
They are a serial cross-market trader, active across 121 events and $8.0M of tracked volume.
Two linked wallets from the same funder have put about $3.7K into this related view.

$1,264 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 58%

90% winner buying NO

Sharp-wallet override: despite only a weak size/new-wallet signal, this bettor has a 90% resolved win rate and positive lifetime P&L.

This bettor has won 26 of 29 resolved trades and is up about $5.3k lifetime.
They put $3,000 on No at 88¢, backing the current market favorite with a proven record.
The market is liquid, so the main signal is the wallet’s strong track record rather than trade size.

$2,953 on No | Wallet win rate: 90%

90% winner buying NO

Sharp-wallet override: despite only a weak size/new-wallet signal, this bettor has a 90% resolved win rate and positive lifetime P&L.

This bettor has won 26 of 29 resolved trades and is up about $5.3k lifetime.
They put $3,000 on No at 88¢, backing the current market favorite with a proven record.
The market is liquid, so the main signal is the wallet’s strong track record rather than trade size.

$3,000 on No | Wallet win rate: 90%

Elite serial bettor buys NO

A highly proven serial cross-market trader with 85% wins and $1.38M lifetime profit bought nearly $15k of No.

This bettor wins 85% of resolved trades and is up $1.38M lifetime.
They have traded 166 markets across 111 events, suggesting a repeatable cross-market edge.
A $15k buy at 87¢ backs the already-favored No side with meaningful conviction.

$14,967 on No | Wallet win rate: 85%

88% winner buying No

Sharp-wallet override: this bettor has an 88% resolved win rate with positive lifetime P&L and is taking a fresh No position on a geopolitics market.

This bettor wins 88% of resolved trades and is up about $3k lifetime.
They bought No at 82¢, implying confidence Israel will not announce a full Lebanon withdrawal by the deadline.
The market is active but still has only $32k liquidity, so a $2.4k entry is meaningful size.

$2,430 on No | Wallet win rate: 88%

88% winner buying YES

Sharp wallet with an 88% win rate and $241k lifetime profit bought Yes while also positioning across related Lebanon withdrawal markets.

This bettor wins 88% of resolved trades and is up $241k lifetime.
They bought $2.3k of Yes at 22¢ while also positioning across a related market.
The market has moved up 5 points today, suggesting recent momentum behind the same view.

$2,251 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 88%

Profitable serial cross-market trader

A highly experienced, profitable serial cross-market trader is taking a contrarian Yes position in a geopolitical market with relatively quiet 24h volume.

This bettor is up $367k across 898 resolved bets, with a 62% hit rate.
They have traded 86 markets across 37 events, suggesting a repeat thesis-driven trader.
Selling No at 85¢ is effectively buying Yes at 15¢, above the current 13¢ market price.

$1,743 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 61%

Profitable serial macro trader

Profitable serial cross-market trader with a large sample is buying No on a relatively quiet geopolitical market with a bet that is meaningful versus 24h volume.

This bettor is up $377K lifetime across 889 resolved trades.
They have traded 76 markets across 33 events, suggesting a recurring cross-market thesis style.
The $2.6K No buy is large for a quiet market with only about $4.3K in 24h volume.

$2,625 on No | Wallet win rate: 61%

New repeat whale buying YES

A 28-day-old repeat large bettor is putting meaningful size into a relatively quiet geopolitical market, buying Yes at an effective average around 9.4¢.

This 28-day-old wallet has now made 10 large flagged bets totaling about $86.6k.
They bought $5.3k of Yes, roughly 70% of the market’s 24h volume.
Average entry is about 9.4¢, while the market is now around 15¢.

$5,300 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 22%