Israel withdraws from Lebanon by...?
21 signals across 5 markets · $79,417 tracked · resolves Jun 30, 2026
This Polymarket event tracks whether Israel announces it has withdrawn all ground forces from Lebanon by the specified deadline, currently centered on the May 31, 2026 market. Traders are pricing the likelihood of a full announced withdrawal versus the market resolving No, with PolySpotter tracking $13,006 in smart-money activity and a recent signal from a profitable geopolitical whale.
Markets (5)
- Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026?9 signals · $36,533 tracked
- Israel withdraws from Lebanon by August 31, 2026?2 signals · $14,052 tracked
- Israel withdraws from Lebanon by May 31, 2026?1 signal · $13,006 tracked
- Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026?5 signals · $8,938 tracked
- Israel withdraws from Lebanon by December 31, 2026?4 signals · $6,887 tracked
Top trades across all markets
- 85% winner leads No cluster
A highly profitable 85% lifetime winner led a 3-wallet $10.3k No buy cluster amid a 99x volume spike on a geopolitics market.
$10,305Score: 15.1 - Profitable cross-market whale
Profitable high-volume cross-market trader is buying a long-shot Yes in a geopolitical market, with linked-wallet context and meaningful size versus recent volume.
$3,747Wallet win rate: 58%Score: 10.0 - Profitable cross-market geopolitics trader
Profitable serial cross-market trader bought No in a thin geopolitics market and the price has already moved sharply in their favor.
$1,223Wallet win rate: 72%Score: 8.5 - No breakout buyer
Surfacing as a momentum/geopolitics alert: a modestly profitable wallet bought No into a sharp breakout, though the trader record is not especially strong.
$1,309Wallet win rate: 56%Score: 6.0 - Profitable geopolitics regular buying NO
Profitable high-volume cross-market trader bought No, with supporting price impact and related-market positioning.
$3,341Wallet win rate: 61%Score: 6.0 - Elite cross-market sharp
Sharp profitable wallet with an 82% resolved win rate and extensive cross-market history bought a long-shot Yes at 5¢.
$2,019Wallet win rate: 82%Score: 6.0 - New repeat whale buying YES
A 28-day-old repeat large bettor is putting meaningful size into a relatively quiet geopolitical market, buying Yes at an effective average around 9.4¢.
$5,300Wallet win rate: 22%Score: 5.5 - New wallet scaling fast
A 4-day-old wallet has now triggered 13 large-bet alerts totaling about $55k, adding a small Yes position in a liquid geopolitics market despite no resolved track record yet.
$1,000Score: 5.5 - Proven sharp flips Yes
A highly experienced cross-market trader with a 75% resolved win rate and positive lifetime P&L is effectively buying Yes on a geopolitical market.
$1,867Wallet win rate: 72%Score: 4.0 - Profitable serial macro trader
Profitable serial cross-market trader with a large sample is buying No on a relatively quiet geopolitical market with a bet that is meaningful versus 24h volume.
$2,625Wallet win rate: 61%Score: 4.0
Top wallets in this event
- 0x000d25…758e$14,967 · 1 market · 1 alert · 85% wins
- 0xbaa2bc…2c73$13,006 · 1 market · 1 alert · 63% wins
- 0x6d9fc3…9790$7,709 · 2 markets · 3 alerts · 61% wins
- 0x68d3b0…55b0$5,953 · 1 market · 2 alerts · 90% wins
- 0x079fa0…28df$5,300 · 1 market · 1 alert · 22% wins
- 0x44c1df…ebc1$5,011 · 2 markets · 2 alerts · 58% wins
- 0x8c66e2…44f3$4,052 · 1 market · 2 alerts · 83% wins
- 0x2ece9a…acf2$2,430 · 1 market · 1 alert · 88% wins
- 0x122cb9…fbed$2,323 · 1 market · 2 alerts · 56% wins
- 0x134a63…9e42$2,251 · 1 market · 1 alert · 88% wins
FAQs
What are the Israel withdraws from Lebanon odds on Polymarket?
The odds reflect the market-implied probability that Israel announces all ground forces have withdrawn from Lebanese territory by the listed deadline. On PolySpotter, you can track the live Polymarket price alongside smart-money activity across the event.
What outcome is being traded in this prediction market?
The market is trading whether Israel announces it has withdrawn all ground forces from Lebanon by May 31, 2026. If that announcement happens by the deadline, the market can resolve Yes; otherwise it resolves No.
What is the smart money doing on this event?
PolySpotter has tracked $13,006 in smart-money activity across this event, including a recent alert tied to a profitable geopolitical whale. That signal can help users see whether experienced political and geopolitical traders are positioning toward Yes or No.
When does the Israel withdrawal market resolve?
The event is listed with a resolution window ending in 2026, and the active child market focuses on the May 31, 2026 deadline. Resolution depends on whether the required Israeli announcement occurs by 11:59 PM ET on the specified date.
Does Israel need to give up control of all Lebanese territory for Yes to win?
According to the market rules, a Yes resolution requires Israel to announce that its ground forces have withdrawn from all Lebanese territory. The rules state this can be sufficient even if some territory remains under Israeli control or if later ground incursions occur.