Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Viktor Orbán?
Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Hungary on April 12 2026. This market will resolve to the individual who is next officially appointed and confirmed as Prime Minister of Hungary following the 2026 parliamentary election. To count for resolution, the individual must be formally elected and appointed to the role of Prime Minister. Any interim or caretaker Prime Minister will not count toward the resolution of this market. If no such Prime Minister is confirmed by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other.” The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of Hungary; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
47 smart money signals detected, totaling $615,118.
Categories: World, World Elections, Elections, Global Elections, Hungary, Macro Election 1, Politics, Hungary Election
Notable Trades
New whale pressing No
A 1-day-old wallet has repeatedly placed large bets and just put nearly $12k into No on a major politics market as the price moved further in its favor.
- A 1-day-old wallet has already triggered 6 large-bet alerts, with $26.9k flagged in total
- This is a fresh $12k position on a major political market, not routine profit-taking
- Bought No at 88¢ and the market is now 92¢, showing immediate momentum behind the bet
$11,959 on No
88% win-rate political bettor
A highly profitable cross-market political trader with an 88% win rate bought No after a sharp move, backing the market’s anti-Orbán direction with fresh capital.
- This bettor wins 88% of resolved trades and is up about $920k lifetime
- They trade across 121 markets in 74 events, which points to a repeatable edge rather than a one-off bet
- Bought No at 87¢ after the market swung hard this week, adding follow-through to the recent move against Orbán
$1,721 on No | Wallet win rate: 88%
84% win-rate political bettor
A proven profitable political trader with an 84% win rate is taking a fresh cross-market position on Orbán not returning as Hungary's next prime minister.
- This bettor wins 84% of resolved trades and is up about $303k overall.
- They trade across 45 events and 82 markets, which suggests a repeatable edge rather than a one-off bet.
- They bought No at 84¢ in a liquid market after a 20-point weekly move, backing the current favorite with a sharp track record.
$1,087 on No | Wallet win rate: 83%
84% win-rate political bettor
A high-performing serial political trader with an 84% win rate bought No in a major Hungary PM market after a sharp move, making this a credible followable position despite the modest size.
- This bettor wins 84% of resolved trades and is up about $303k lifetime.
- They have traded 82 markets across 45 events, which points to a repeatable edge rather than a one-off bet.
- They bought No at 85¢ after the market moved hard lower, backing the current favorite in a major, liquid political market.
$2,342 on No | Wallet win rate: 83%
84% winner reloading No
A highly profitable bettor with an 84% win rate reopened a sizable No position in a major political market after previously trading it, which is still worth surfacing despite limited signal diversity.
- This bettor wins 84% of resolved trades and is up about $2.0M lifetime.
- They bought No at 84¢ in a major politics market after the price already moved hard against Yes.
- This is a liquid market, so the signal comes from the bettor’s track record more than market impact.
$4,244 on No | Wallet win rate: 84%
New wallet pressing NO
A 2-day-old wallet has already made six large flagged bets and is selling Orbán at 16¢ into a sharp recent drop, suggesting a repeat high-conviction political thesis rather than random activity.
- This 2-day-old wallet has already triggered 6 large-bet alerts totaling about $31k
- The trade adds to a cross-market political thesis, with about $16k deployed across 2 related markets
- Selling Yes at 16¢ is equivalent to buying No at 84¢ after a 12-point 1-day drop
$1,019 on No
New wallet pressing NO
A 4-day-old wallet has already made repeated four-figure bets across this election event, and its latest buy adds to bearish momentum against Orbán at a time when market odds have been moving sharply lower.
- A 4-day-old wallet has already made 5 notable bets totaling $17.7k, which stands out as fast, repeated conviction.
- This trade backs No at 79¢ while Orbán odds have fallen 14 points over the past week, matching the market's recent direction.
- The position was opened in a deep election market with a tight 1¢ spread, suggesting deliberate sizing rather than a one-off shot in a thin book.
$1,191 on No
82% win-rate political bettor
A proven 82% win-rate bettor with activity across 29 events is taking the No side in a major political market after a sharp recent move, making this a credible thesis worth following.
- This bettor wins 82% of resolved markets and has made money across 50 settled bets.
- They trade across many related markets — 29 events and 36 markets — which points to a repeatable edge rather than a one-off punt.
- They bought No at 77¢ after this market moved 11 points lower over the past week, backing the view that Orbán is unlikely to return.
$2,310 on No | Wallet win rate: 82%
12-wallet sharp cluster
A highly profitable 85% win-rate bettor from a 12-wallet linked cluster is buying the same political event, making this a strong signal despite the modest ticket size in a deep market.
- This bettor wins 85% of resolved trades and is up $1.26M lifetime across more than 1,000 bets.
- 12 wallets tied to the same funder have been tracked before, suggesting coordinated conviction rather than a one-off trade.
- They bought No at 79¢ in a major 2026 Hungary market, backing the recent move as Orbán's odds have fallen 12 points over the past week.
$2,334 on No | Wallet win rate: 85%
Profitable politics cross-market bettor
A highly active cross-market trader with nearly 1,000 resolved bets and $295k profit made a sizable fresh buy on No in a major politics market, aligning with existing market momentum.
- This bettor has 994 resolved bets, a 56% win rate, and is up $295k overall.
- They placed an $18.3k buy on No in a major election market after trading 56 markets across 37 related events.
- The market is already drifting against Orbán, and this bet entered near 73¢ with tight spreads and deep liquidity.
$18,250 on No | Wallet win rate: 56%
Top Holders
- 0xa5ef...2966 — No, $5,154,059
- 0xfd22...ad91 — Yes, $2,688,297 (44% win rate)
- 0xcf60...47ce — No, $595,198 (50% win rate)
- 0xca76...28b3 — Yes, $270,843 (76% win rate)
- 0x1398...64e4 — Yes, $220,341
- 0x7523...4c4c — No, $212,500 (47% win rate)
- 0xde7b...5f4b — No, $204,969 (88% win rate)
- 0x5b90...c44e — No, $169,830
- 0x629b...995a — No, $162,494 (57% win rate)
- 0xe5c2...2ab0 — No, $161,955 (93% win rate)
