Part of: Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by...?

Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026?

This Polymarket asks whether Russia and Ukraine will reach a mutually agreed ceasefire by 11:59 PM ET on June 30, 2026. PolySpotter is tracking $7,196 in smart money activity and 1 smart money signal for this market, with live odds updating as traders react to diplomacy, battlefield developments, and official statements. The market’s listed resolution date is December 31, 2026, though the qualifying event must occur by the June 30 deadline.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if there is a ceasefire agreement between Russia and Ukraine by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A ceasefire agreement refers to any mutually-agreed suspension of direct military engagement between Russia and Ukraine, which is either officially announced by both countries or confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting to have been mutually agreed by both countries. A broader peace deal, normalization agreement, political framework, truce, or humanitarian pause will qualify if it includes a mutually agreed suspension of direct military engagement, to be effective on a specified date. Agreements that outline future negotiations or de-escalation measures without an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not qualify. Any form of informal understanding, backchannel communication, de-escalation without an announced agreement, or unilateral pause in hostilities will not be considered a ceasefire agreement. Only agreements which constitute a general pause in the conflict will qualify. Agreements which only apply to specific conflict categories (e.g. restrictions on certain target categories or certain locations) will not qualify. If a qualifying agreement is officially reached before this market’s end date, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of whether the ceasefire agreement officially takes effect after that date. The primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments of Russia and Ukraine and a consensus of credible reporting.

1 smart money signal detected, totaling $7,196.

Categories: Ukraine Peace Deal, Politics, Ukraine, Russia, putin, Geopolitics, zelensky, Trump, zelenskyy

Notable Trades

96% win-rate serial trader

Sharp serial cross-market trader with a 96% resolved-bet win rate bought $7.2k of No at 90¢ on the Russia-Ukraine ceasefire market.

  • This bettor wins 96% of resolved bets and is up $15.4k lifetime.
  • They have traded across 166 events with nearly $500k in total volume.
  • A $7.2k buy at 90¢ shows confidence that no ceasefire agreement happens by the deadline.

$7,196 on No | Wallet win rate: 96%

Top Holders

  1. 0x5056...c7df Yes, $26,751
  2. 0x49b3...6486 No, $14,010 (36% win rate)
  3. 0x48ee...008c Yes, $10,676 (38% win rate)
  4. 0xfd66...fb6d Yes, $10,000 (20% win rate)
  5. 0xc615...e982 Yes, $10,000 (40% win rate)
  6. 0x952a...bdc8 No, $8,607 (96% win rate)
  7. 0x5cd5...ac33 No, $8,356 (93% win rate)
  8. 0x3cd0...439b No, $8,090 (69% win rate)
  9. 0x36f4...ab1e Yes, $7,149
  10. 0xc021...1fa8 No, $6,000 (53% win rate)

Related Theses

No Russia-Ukraine ceasefire by June

Covers 1 related market

Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026?

219dRussia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by...?$7,196 tracked1 signalUkraine Peace DealPoliticsUkraineRussiaputinGeopoliticszelenskyTrumpzelenskyy
Yes
10¢
No
91¢

This market will resolve to “Yes” if there is a ceasefire agreement between Russia and Ukraine by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A ceasefire agreement refers to any mutually-agreed suspension of direct military engagement between Russia and Ukraine, which is either officially announced by both countries or confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting to have been mutually agreed by both countries. A broader peace deal, normalization agreement, political framework, truce, or humanitarian pause will qualify if it includes a mutually agreed suspension of direct military engagement, to be effective on a specified date. Agreements that outline future negotiations or de-escalation measures without an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not qualify. Any form of informal understanding, backchannel communication, de-escalation without an announced agreement, or unilateral pause in hostilities will not be considered a ceasefire agreement. Only agreements which constitute a general pause in the conflict will qualify. Agreements which only apply to specific conflict categories (e.g. restrictions on certain target categories or certain locations) will not qualify. If a qualifying agreement is officially reached before this market’s end date, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of whether the ceasefire agreement officially takes effect after that date. The primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments of Russia and Ukraine and a consensus of credible reporting.

Price History — “No
92¢
89¢
85¢
Alert entriesHigh-conviction

Notable Trades

Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026?

2h ago

$7,196 on No at 90¢

90¢91¢1¢

Related Theses