Part of: Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by...?

Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026?

This prediction market asks whether Russia will capture the entirety of Kostyantynivka, Donetsk Oblast by December 31, 2026, based on the ISW map. It resolves “Yes” only if the whole municipality is shaded red on the ISW map by the deadline; otherwise it resolves “No.” PolySpotter tracks $4,276 in smart money activity and 1 smart money signal on this market.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Russia captures the entirety of Kostyantynivka, Donetsk Oblast, (48.528896° N, 37.702514° E) by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Kostyantynivka will be considered captured if the entirety of the municipality is shaded red on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. If the area is not shaded red by the resolution date, the market will resolve to “No”. For any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading indicating Russian control must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle. If ISW skips a day, shading must persist until the next finalized ISW update is published, regardless of the date. Any continuous shading which reflects either “Assessed Russian Control”, “Assessed Russian Advance In Ukraine”, or “Assessed Russian Gains in the Past 24 Hours” will qualify. “Assessed Russian Infiltration Areas in Ukraine” will not qualify. The territory of the municipality is shaded in light grey and is distinguished from bordering municipalities with a darker grey line. If all area within the municipality is shaded in red, however, the shading does not precisely match up with the border such that there is a tiny amount of grey along the border of the city, this will still qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Once Russia captures the entirety of the specified area, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market. Location on Google maps: https://maps.app.goo.gl/p9N3w6yRVfjx6cuZ8 The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used. Note: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map will not be considered. If Russia comes into control of this territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of whether it is shaded red in the ISW map. An announcement of a negotiated settlement that gives Russia de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established.

14 smart money signals detected, totaling $35,194.

Categories: Ukraine, Politics, Ukraine Map, Geopolitics

Notable Trades

Proven geopolitical sharp

A highly proven cross-market trader with a 76% win rate and $315k lifetime profit bought Yes on a Ukraine war market that has moved sharply upward.

  • This bettor wins 76% of resolved trades and is up $315k lifetime.
  • They are a serial cross-market trader across 69 events with $2.4M deployed.
  • Bought Yes at 55¢ before the market moved to 59¢, with price up 12.5 points in the past day.

$4,276 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 77%

Proven geopolitical sharp

A highly proven cross-market trader with a 76% win rate and $315k lifetime profit bought Yes on a Ukraine war market that has moved sharply upward.

  • This bettor wins 76% of resolved trades and is up $315k lifetime.
  • They are a serial cross-market trader across 69 events with $2.4M deployed.
  • Bought Yes at 55¢ before the market moved to 59¢, with price up 12.5 points in the past day.

$4,415 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 77%

Proven geopolitical sharp

A highly proven cross-market trader with a 76% win rate and $315k lifetime profit bought Yes on a Ukraine war market that has moved sharply upward.

  • This bettor wins 76% of resolved trades and is up $315k lifetime.
  • They are a serial cross-market trader across 69 events with $2.4M deployed.
  • Bought Yes at 55¢ before the market moved to 59¢, with price up 12.5 points in the past day.

$1,921 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 77%

92% winner flips toward Yes

Sharp-wallet override: a highly successful bettor with 92% historical wins is selling No, equivalent to buying Yes, despite the alert itself being weak.

  • This bettor has won 92% of 348 resolved trades and is up $47.7K lifetime.
  • They sold No at 56¢, equivalent to buying Yes around 44¢.
  • This appears to close a prior No position, suggesting the wallet is backing away from the No side.

$1,477 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 92%

Proven geopolitical sharp

A highly proven cross-market trader with a 76% win rate and $315k lifetime profit bought Yes on a Ukraine war market that has moved sharply upward.

  • This bettor wins 76% of resolved trades and is up $315k lifetime.
  • They are a serial cross-market trader across 69 events with $2.4M deployed.
  • Bought Yes at 55¢ before the market moved to 59¢, with price up 12.5 points in the past day.

$2,159 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 77%

Proven geopolitical sharp

A highly proven cross-market trader with a 76% win rate and $315k lifetime profit bought Yes on a Ukraine war market that has moved sharply upward.

  • This bettor wins 76% of resolved trades and is up $315k lifetime.
  • They are a serial cross-market trader across 69 events with $2.4M deployed.
  • Bought Yes at 55¢ before the market moved to 59¢, with price up 12.5 points in the past day.

$1,910 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 77%

Proven geopolitical sharp

A highly proven cross-market trader with a 76% win rate and $315k lifetime profit bought Yes on a Ukraine war market that has moved sharply upward.

  • This bettor wins 76% of resolved trades and is up $315k lifetime.
  • They are a serial cross-market trader across 69 events with $2.4M deployed.
  • Bought Yes at 55¢ before the market moved to 59¢, with price up 12.5 points in the past day.

$1,610 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 77%

88% winner buying Yes

Sharp wallet with an 88% resolved-bet record and positive lifetime P&L is buying Yes on a geopolitics market with recent upward momentum.

  • This bettor wins 88% of resolved trades and is up $3.7K lifetime.
  • They bought Yes at 55¢ as the market moved up about 6 points this week.
  • The bet is meaningful for a relatively quiet market, at about 28% of the last 24h volume.

$1,705 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 88%

Profitable whale fading Yes

Profitable high-volume wallet sold Yes in a quiet, wide-spread Ukraine war market, effectively backing No at 75¢ after Yes had already fallen sharply.

  • This wallet is up about $556k lifetime on $1.7M traded, despite a low hit rate.
  • The trade was more than 10x the market’s recent quiet volume, suggesting a deliberate view.
  • They effectively bought No at 75¢ while Yes was already down 13.5% on the day.

$1,472 on No | Wallet win rate: 42%

Profitable sharp buys quiet NO

A profitable 75% win-rate wallet bought No on a quiet Ukraine-war market with a trade more than 7x the market's 24h volume.

  • This bettor has won 75% of 77 resolved trades and is up about $1,029 lifetime.
  • Their $1.1K No buy was over 7x the market’s entire 24h volume, suggesting real conviction in a quiet book.
  • Entry at 66¢ implies a steady bet that Russia will not fully capture Kostyantynivka by the deadline.

$1,095 on No | Wallet win rate: 75%

Top Holders

  1. 0xa2f1...2d22 Yes, $49,941 (77% win rate)
  2. 0xd44e...67e2 No, $42,868 (61% win rate)
  3. 0xb9f1...a6a0 Yes, $37,679 (44% win rate)
  4. 0x8631...9a73 Yes, $31,447
  5. 0x8f69...7df1 No, $30,085 (68% win rate)
  6. 0x129d...7d2d Yes, $21,974 (57% win rate)
  7. 0xa022...77f8 No, $14,987 (70% win rate)
  8. 0xcf9e...518e No, $10,714 (85% win rate)
  9. 0x9ca1...13b5 No, $10,286 (59% win rate)
  10. 0xc932...e6a5 No, $10,238 (66% win rate)

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Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026?

165dWill Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by...?$35,194 tracked14 signalsUkrainePoliticsUkraine MapGeopolitics
Yes
50¢
No
51¢

This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Russia captures the entirety of Kostyantynivka, Donetsk Oblast, (48.528896° N, 37.702514° E) by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Kostyantynivka will be considered captured if the entirety of the municipality is shaded red on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. If the area is not shaded red by the resolution date, the market will resolve to “No”. For any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading indicating Russian control must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle. If ISW skips a day, shading must persist until the next finalized ISW update is published, regardless of the date. Any continuous shading which reflects either “Assessed Russian Control”, “Assessed Russian Advance In Ukraine”, or “Assessed Russian Gains in the Past 24 Hours” will qualify. “Assessed Russian Infiltration Areas in Ukraine” will not qualify. The territory of the municipality is shaded in light grey and is distinguished from bordering municipalities with a darker grey line. If all area within the municipality is shaded in red, however, the shading does not precisely match up with the border such that there is a tiny amount of grey along the border of the city, this will still qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Once Russia captures the entirety of the specified area, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market. Location on Google maps: https://maps.app.goo.gl/p9N3w6yRVfjx6cuZ8 The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used. Note: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map will not be considered. If Russia comes into control of this territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of whether it is shaded red in the ISW map. An announcement of a negotiated settlement that gives Russia de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established.

Price History — “No
57¢
53¢
49¢
Alert entriesHigh-conviction

Notable Trades

Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026?

6d ago

$4,276 on Yes at 55¢

55¢50¢5¢

Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026?

6d ago

$4,415 on Yes at 55¢

55¢50¢5¢

Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026?

6d ago

$1,921 on Yes at 55¢

55¢50¢5¢

Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026?

14d ago

$1,477 on Yes at 44¢

44¢50¢6¢

Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026?

21d ago

$2,159 on Yes at 55¢

55¢50¢5¢

Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026?

21d ago

$1,910 on Yes at 55¢

55¢50¢5¢

Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026?

25d ago

$1,610 on Yes at 55¢

55¢50¢5¢

Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026?

26d ago

$1,705 on Yes at 55¢

55¢50¢5¢

Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026?

42d ago

$1,472 on No at 75¢

75¢51¢24¢

Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026?

52d ago

$1,095 on No at 66¢

66¢51¢15¢

Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026?

65d ago

$1,630 on No at 62¢

62¢51¢11¢

Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026?

82d ago

$5,591 on No at 65¢

65¢51¢14¢

Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026?

101d ago

$2,500 on No at 60¢

60¢51¢9¢

Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026?

111d ago

$3,433 on No at 50¢

50¢51¢1¢

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