Part of: Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by...?
Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026?
This prediction market asks whether Russia will capture the entirety of Kostyantynivka in Donetsk Oblast by December 31, 2026. It resolves Yes only if the full municipality is shaded red on the ISW map by 11:59 PM ET; otherwise, it resolves No. PolySpotter tracks smart money activity, including $2,898 in tracked volume and one signal.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Russia captures the entirety of Kostyantynivka, Donetsk Oblast, (48.528896° N, 37.702514° E) between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Kostyantynivka will be considered captured if the entirety of the municipality is shaded under a below specified layer on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. Otherwise, the market will resolve to “No”. The boundaries of the municipality are those shown under the “Ukrainian Settlements” layer on the ISW map. If all area within the municipality is shaded under a qualifying layer, however, the shading does not precisely match up with the border such that there is a tiny amount of unshaded area along the border of the municipality, this will still qualify for a "Yes" resolution. For any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle. If ISW skips a day, shading must persist until the next finalized ISW update is published, regardless of the date. Any continuous shading under the following layers will qualify: - Assessed Russian-Controlled Terrain - Assessed Russian Advances Shading under the following layers will not qualify: - Assessed Russian Infiltration Areas - Claimed Russian Territory Once a qualifying condition is met, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market. If Russia comes into control of the specified territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of whether it is shaded under a qualifying layer on the ISW map. However, an announcement of a negotiated settlement that gives Russia de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established. The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used. Note: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map will not be considered.
29 smart money signals detected, totaling $158,710.
Categories: Politics, Ukraine Map, Geopolitics, Ukraine
Notable Trades
Profitable serial trader adding to No
A highly profitable serial trader added $7,102 to an existing large No position, making a sizable purchase in a quiet market despite the outcome already trading at 88%.
- This trader is up $455,746 across more than 2,300 resolved bets and added another $7,102 to No.
- The purchase accounted for about 80% of the market’s 24-hour volume, reinforcing an existing $53,024 No position.
- No was bought at 87¢, close to its current 88¢ price, so the trade signals conviction more than a discounted entry.
$7,102 on No | Wallet win rate: 69%
Proven geopolitical sharp
A highly proven cross-market trader with a 76% win rate and $315k lifetime profit bought Yes on a Ukraine war market that has moved sharply upward.
- This bettor wins 76% of resolved trades and is up $315k lifetime.
- They are a serial cross-market trader across 69 events with $2.4M deployed.
- Bought Yes at 55¢ before the market moved to 59¢, with price up 12.5 points in the past day.
$2,898 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 77%
Proven geopolitical sharp
A highly proven cross-market trader with a 76% win rate and $315k lifetime profit bought Yes on a Ukraine war market that has moved sharply upward.
- This bettor wins 76% of resolved trades and is up $315k lifetime.
- They are a serial cross-market trader across 69 events with $2.4M deployed.
- Bought Yes at 55¢ before the market moved to 59¢, with price up 12.5 points in the past day.
$3,257 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 77%
Proven geopolitical sharp
A highly proven cross-market trader with a 76% win rate and $315k lifetime profit bought Yes on a Ukraine war market that has moved sharply upward.
- This bettor wins 76% of resolved trades and is up $315k lifetime.
- They are a serial cross-market trader across 69 events with $2.4M deployed.
- Bought Yes at 55¢ before the market moved to 59¢, with price up 12.5 points in the past day.
$1,558 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 77%
Serial trader scaling into NO
A highly active serial cross-market trader added $5.9K to an existing No position at 44%, creating a meaningful directional signal despite only moderate historical edge.
- This trader has placed $9.2M across 181 markets and won 72% of 815 resolved bets.
- They added $5,897 to an existing No position at 44%; No has since risen to 48%.
- The trade targets a near-even geopolitical market with a long resolution horizon, suggesting meaningful downside conviction on Russia capturing the city.
$2,321 on No | Wallet win rate: 72%
Serial trader scaling into NO
A highly active serial cross-market trader added $5.9K to an existing No position at 44%, creating a meaningful directional signal despite only moderate historical edge.
- This trader has placed $9.2M across 181 markets and won 72% of 815 resolved bets.
- They added $5,897 to an existing No position at 44%; No has since risen to 48%.
- The trade targets a near-even geopolitical market with a long resolution horizon, suggesting meaningful downside conviction on Russia capturing the city.
$5,897 on No | Wallet win rate: 72%
Proven geopolitical sharp
A highly proven cross-market trader with a 76% win rate and $315k lifetime profit bought Yes on a Ukraine war market that has moved sharply upward.
- This bettor wins 76% of resolved trades and is up $315k lifetime.
- They are a serial cross-market trader across 69 events with $2.4M deployed.
- Bought Yes at 55¢ before the market moved to 59¢, with price up 12.5 points in the past day.
$14,800 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 77%
Proven geopolitical sharp
A highly proven cross-market trader with a 76% win rate and $315k lifetime profit bought Yes on a Ukraine war market that has moved sharply upward.
- This bettor wins 76% of resolved trades and is up $315k lifetime.
- They are a serial cross-market trader across 69 events with $2.4M deployed.
- Bought Yes at 55¢ before the market moved to 59¢, with price up 12.5 points in the past day.
$22,400 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 77%
Proven geopolitical sharp
A highly proven cross-market trader with a 76% win rate and $315k lifetime profit bought Yes on a Ukraine war market that has moved sharply upward.
- This bettor wins 76% of resolved trades and is up $315k lifetime.
- They are a serial cross-market trader across 69 events with $2.4M deployed.
- Bought Yes at 55¢ before the market moved to 59¢, with price up 12.5 points in the past day.
$5,089 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 77%
Proven geopolitical sharp
A highly proven cross-market trader with a 76% win rate and $315k lifetime profit bought Yes on a Ukraine war market that has moved sharply upward.
- This bettor wins 76% of resolved trades and is up $315k lifetime.
- They are a serial cross-market trader across 69 events with $2.4M deployed.
- Bought Yes at 55¢ before the market moved to 59¢, with price up 12.5 points in the past day.
$13,986 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 77%
Top Holders
- 0xa2f1...2d22 — Yes, $285,345 (77% win rate)
- 0x5739...5f1a — No, $89,499 (58% win rate)
- 0xd44e...67e2 — No, $55,146 (60% win rate)
- 0x9ca1...13b5 — No, $45,527 (60% win rate)
- 0x8f69...7df1 — No, $25,663 (69% win rate)
- 0x129d...7d2d — Yes, $21,974 (57% win rate)
- 0xb8b4...1f6e — No, $17,986 (73% win rate)
- 0xab19...4876 — No, $17,277 (61% win rate)
- 0x74db...4ca5 — Yes, $12,500
- 0xc984...37ca — No, $11,692 (67% win rate)
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