When does this Fed rate prediction market resolve?

The market is scheduled to resolve after the July 28-29, 2026 FOMC decision, once the outcomes of all three covered meetings are known.

What determines the outcome of this market?

Resolution is based on the official FOMC decisions for the target federal funds rate, specifically the upper bound of the target range, at the April, June, and July 2026 meetings.

How can I interpret the Polymarket odds for Fed pauses?

The market price reflects traders’ implied probability that the Fed pauses at all three meetings. A higher Yes price suggests stronger market confidence in three consecutive pauses.

What smart money activity is PolySpotter tracking here?

PolySpotter shows $48,077 in smart money tracked for this market, with recent alerts including a five-wallet macro cluster and active bettor activity adding Yes exposure.

Part of: Fed decisions (Apr-Jul)

Will the Fed Pause–Pause–Pause in the next three decisions (Apr–Jun–Jul)?

Q: What does the Fed Pause-Pause-Pause market mean?

It asks whether the Federal Reserve will pause, meaning keep the upper bound of the target federal funds rate unchanged, at all three specified FOMC meetings in April, June, and July 2026.

This prediction market tracks whether the Federal Reserve will leave the upper bound of the target federal funds rate unchanged at each of the next three FOMC decisions: April 28-29, June 16-17, and July 28-29, 2026. It resolves based on the official FOMC rate decisions, with PolySpotter tracking $48,077 in smart money and 2 recent smart money signals on the market.

The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings. This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: April 28-29; June 16-17; and July 28-29. A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting. A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting. A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting. If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other". Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered. The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm

2 smart money signals detected, totaling $48,077.

Categories: Fed, Fed Rates, Parlays, Economic Policy, Economy, fomc, Jerome Powell

Notable Trades

Active bettor adding Yes

A highly active cross-market bettor is adding to an existing Yes position during a major volume spike and sharp upward move, though the entry is on a heavy favorite.

This very active bettor has traded 244 markets across 157 events and is adding to a $26.9k Yes position.
The market saw a huge volume spike and Yes has moved up 14 points in the last day.
Entry at 90¢ is a high-probability favorite, so the upside is limited but the flow is clearly one-sided.

$3,265 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 86%

Five-wallet macro cluster

Strong one-sided cluster buying Yes, led by repeat profitable macro/cross-market wallets and accompanied by a major volume spike and price move.

Five wallets bought $44.8K of Yes, with several adding to existing positions.
A serial cross-market trader in the flow has an 86% win rate across 243 markets.
Volume spiked 540x historical levels and Yes moved up 14.5 points in a day.

$44,812 on Yes