Part of: KY-04 Republican Primary Winner
Will Ed Gallrein be the Republican nominee for KY-04?
11 smart money signals detected, totaling $18,938.
Categories: Politics, Elections, Primaries, primary elections, Republican Primary, House Primary, Kentucky Primary
Notable Trades
15-wallet profitable cluster
Surface: a profitable serial political trader with 15 linked wallets is buying Yes into strong weekly momentum on a liquid KY-04 nominee market.
- This bettor has a strong track record: 62% wins across 77 resolved bets and about $399K lifetime profit.
- 15 wallets funded by the same source are positioned on this event, totaling about $6.4K.
- Yes is already up 34 points this week, and this buy at 63¢ follows that momentum.
$1,332 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 62%
Profitable serial politics trader
A profitable serial cross-market bettor with a large resolved history bought Yes on a niche political primary market that has moved sharply upward this week.
- This bettor has 1,035 resolved trades, wins 61% of them, and is up $116k lifetime.
- They are a highly active cross-market trader, with activity across 190 events and $587k in tracked related bets.
- The market has strong momentum, with Yes up 34 points this week and this entry at 63¢.
$1,338 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 61%
Profitable serial cross-market bettor
Profitable serial cross-market trader with a long record is taking a contrarian No position in a political primary market.
- This bettor has won 71% of 395 resolved trades and is up $143,593 lifetime.
- They are a serious cross-market trader, with $2.18M deployed across 174 markets in 110 events.
- Buying No at 39¢ goes against a strong Yes rally, implying they see meaningful downside to Gallrein’s nomination odds.
$1,077 on No | Wallet win rate: 71%
Profitable serial cross-market bettor
Profitable serial cross-market trader with $636k lifetime P&L is adding Yes in a niche political nomination market with strong recent momentum.
- This bettor is up $636k lifetime across 1,177 resolved trades.
- They have traded across 83 related-market events, suggesting a repeatable cross-market strategy rather than a one-off bet.
- The market has moved sharply toward Yes, up 10 points today and 34 points this week.
$2,353 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 57%
Sharp political bettor buying Yes
A proven profitable political bettor with an 85% record is buying Yes into strong upward momentum on the nomination market.
- This bettor wins 85% of resolved trades and is up $3,549 lifetime.
- They bought Yes at 65¢ as the market has moved up 36 points over the past week.
- Entry at 65¢ implies they still see value despite current favorite pricing.
$1,200 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 85%
Profitable serial political trader
Profitable serial cross-market bettor is exiting No exposure, effectively backing Yes at 65¢ amid strong upward momentum and $29k positioned across the event.
- This bettor wins 71% of resolved trades and is up $143k lifetime.
- They are active across 110 events with $2.2M traded, suggesting a repeatable political-markets edge.
- Selling No at 35¢ is equivalent to backing Yes at 65¢, after the market moved +10 points today and +36 points this week.
$3,060 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 71%
Profitable serial cross-market bettor
Profitable high-volume political bettor with a long cross-market history is taking the Yes side while the market has strong recent upward momentum.
- This bettor is up about $636k lifetime across more than 1,100 resolved markets.
- They have traded 81 related events and put about $15.5k across 2 markets in this event.
- The Yes price is up 24 points this week, suggesting broader momentum behind the same view.
$1,468 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 57%
76% serial cross-market bettor
A proven serial cross-market bettor with a 76% win rate and positive lifetime P&L is effectively buying Gallrein Yes around 41¢.
- This bettor wins 76% of resolved trades and is up $61K lifetime.
- They are a serial cross-market trader across 96 events with $1.39M in total activity.
- Selling No at 59¢ is equivalent to buying Yes at 41¢, just as the market has risen 13 points this week.
$2,586 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 77%
Profitable 75% politics bettor
Profitable sharp wallet with a 75% resolved win rate is buying Yes into strong recent KY-04 nomination momentum.
- This bettor has won 75% of resolved trades and is up $10.6K lifetime.
- They bought Yes at 54¢ as the market jumped 23.5 points over the past day.
- Entry at 54¢ implies they still see upside despite the recent move.
$1,088 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 75%
Profitable political bettor
Surfacing due to sharp-wallet override: a profitable 75% winner is buying Yes in a political primary market with positive recent momentum, despite the modest signal score.
- This bettor has won 75% of resolved bets and is up $10.6K lifetime.
- They bought Yes at 35¢ as the market has moved up 11 points over the past week.
- The bet is modest but on a politics market where informed positioning can matter.
$1,679 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 75%
Top Holders
- 0xa5ef...2966 — Outcome 68084771, $271,849
- 0xecaa...77a9 — Outcome 11114770, $50,521 (68% win rate)
- 0x44d9...4c1a — Outcome 68084771, $38,827 (53% win rate)
- 0x7804...7025 — Outcome 68084771, $35,616 (67% win rate)
- 0x4488...e319 — Outcome 11114770, $35,120 (54% win rate)
- 0xfad9...bdbd — Outcome 68084771, $28,915
- 0x661d...4dc6 — Outcome 68084771, $24,819 (68% win rate)
- 0xd61f...a873 — Outcome 68084771, $23,430
- 0x34ee...7f1e — Outcome 68084771, $20,555
- 0x61e2...4958 — Outcome 68084771, $18,690
Related Theses
Massie wins KY-04 Republican nomination
Covers 2 related markets
