Part of: US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by...?

US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by December 31?

This Polymarket market asks whether the United States and Iran will announce a diplomatic agreement concerning traffic in the Strait of Hormuz by December 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET. Current Yes/No odds are not included in the supplied market metadata; PolySpotter tracks $3,722 in smart money and one signal.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if a diplomatic agreement between the United States and Iran over traffic in the strait of Hormuz is announced by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. A diplomatic agreement refers to an official agreement, treaty, deal, or substantially similar diplomatic instrument that establishes agreed actions, policies, obligations, or commitments between the United States and Iran. A qualifying diplomatic agreement must establish Iranian policies, obligations, or commitments aimed at permitting, restoring, or increasing vessel or shipping traffic through the Strait of Hormuz. All listed countries must announce their acceptance of the same qualifying diplomatic agreement for the Payout Condition to be met. A joint announcement will qualify, as will separate announcements from each entity of its own acceptance of an agreement which, taken together, directly indicate that all the listed countries accepted the same agreement. Separate announcements of individual policies will not qualify if the policies are not announced as part of a diplomatic agreement. Each announcement must be a declarative statement that clearly and unambiguously communicates acceptance of an agreement. Statements that reference ongoing negotiations or a prospective agreement, or that allude to or express support for an agreement without confirming acceptance of the agreement, do not qualify. A qualifying announcement need not reference the agreement by name or use specific terminology, provided it clearly communicates acceptance of an agreement. Whether announcements from the listed countries represent a diplomatic agreement and whether such an agreement qualifies will be primarily determined through the announcements themselves. Where an announcement is made by all listed countries but, based on the announcements, it remains ambiguous whether the announcements represent a qualifying diplomatic agreement between the countries, this market will remain open until either i) definitive confirmation that the announcements represent a qualifying diplomatic agreement between the listed entities is achieved through further announcements from the listed countries or a consensus of credible reporting or ii) 14 calendar days (ET) have passed after the date that the last country made their first potentially qualifying announcement. If, at the end of the fourteenth calendar day, no definitive confirmation has been achieved, this market will resolve based on the totality of information available from the resolution sources at that time. No single statement, denial, or presentation of evidence will govern where it is contradicted by the totality of information. The resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments of the United States and Iran and a consensus of credible reporting.

2 smart money signals detected, totaling $10,484.

Categories: Iran, Trump, Peace Deal, Geopolitics, Strait of Hormuz

Notable Trades

Whale adding to a quiet-market NO position

A sizable additional NO bet in a very quiet market stands out, though the wallet has no proven track record and the volume spike is based on only four trades.

  • The bettor added $6,762 to an existing NO position in a market with just $1,212 in 24-hour volume.
  • The wallet already had $9,800 invested in NO, but its 44% win rate across nine resolved bets offers little evidence of a reliable edge.

$6,762 on No | Wallet win rate: 44%

Profitable serial trader adding No

A highly experienced, substantially profitable trader is adding a sizable No position in a relatively thin market, with the price movement also favoring No.

  • This trader is up about $275,000 across 709 resolved bets and has traded across 178 events.
  • The $3,722 buy was over half of the market’s 24-hour volume, and the trader already holds a larger No position.
  • No has risen from the trader’s 60¢ entry to 72¢, though the current wide spread makes a new entry less favorable.

$3,722 on No | Wallet win rate: 60%

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US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by December 31?

US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by...?$10,484 tracked2 signalsIranTrumpPeace DealGeopoliticsStrait of Hormuz
Yes
40¢
No
60¢

This market will resolve to “Yes” if a diplomatic agreement between the United States and Iran over traffic in the strait of Hormuz is announced by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. A diplomatic agreement refers to an official agreement, treaty, deal, or substantially similar diplomatic instrument that establishes agreed actions, policies, obligations, or commitments between the United States and Iran. A qualifying diplomatic agreement must establish Iranian policies, obligations, or commitments aimed at permitting, restoring, or increasing vessel or shipping traffic through the Strait of Hormuz. All listed countries must announce their acceptance of the same qualifying diplomatic agreement for the Payout Condition to be met. A joint announcement will qualify, as will separate announcements from each entity of its own acceptance of an agreement which, taken together, directly indicate that all the listed countries accepted the same agreement. Separate announcements of individual policies will not qualify if the policies are not announced as part of a diplomatic agreement. Each announcement must be a declarative statement that clearly and unambiguously communicates acceptance of an agreement. Statements that reference ongoing negotiations or a prospective agreement, or that allude to or express support for an agreement without confirming acceptance of the agreement, do not qualify. A qualifying announcement need not reference the agreement by name or use specific terminology, provided it clearly communicates acceptance of an agreement. Whether announcements from the listed countries represent a diplomatic agreement and whether such an agreement qualifies will be primarily determined through the announcements themselves. Where an announcement is made by all listed countries but, based on the announcements, it remains ambiguous whether the announcements represent a qualifying diplomatic agreement between the countries, this market will remain open until either i) definitive confirmation that the announcements represent a qualifying diplomatic agreement between the listed entities is achieved through further announcements from the listed countries or a consensus of credible reporting or ii) 14 calendar days (ET) have passed after the date that the last country made their first potentially qualifying announcement. If, at the end of the fourteenth calendar day, no definitive confirmation has been achieved, this market will resolve based on the totality of information available from the resolution sources at that time. No single statement, denial, or presentation of evidence will govern where it is contradicted by the totality of information. The resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments of the United States and Iran and a consensus of credible reporting.

Price History — “No”
70¢
62¢
54¢
Alert entriesHigh-conviction

Notable Trades

US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by December 31?

2026-10-15 07:42 UTC

$6,762 on No at 69¢

69¢→60¢↓9¢

US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by December 31?

2026-10-04 16:24 UTC

$3,722 on No at 60¢

60¢→60¢

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