Part of: Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by...?
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30?
This prediction market asks whether Kharg Island will no longer be under Iranian control by June 30, 2026. It resolves “Yes” only if another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority establishes primary governmental or military control; recent tracked smart money activity has focused on the “No” side, with $1,290 tracked across 1 signal.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Kharg Island is no longer under Iranian control by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". “No longer under the control of Iran” means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over Kharg Island, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control over the island. Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own. An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established. If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island. If control over Kharg Island is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to “No”. The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.
34 smart money signals detected, totaling $200,097.
Categories: Khamenei, Iran Regime, Kharg Island, Iran, Mojtaba Khamenei, Geopolitics, Strait of Hormuz, Politics
Notable Trades
Sharp geopolitical thesis
Sharp profitable wallet with an 87% resolved win rate is building a cross-market geopolitical thesis, buying Yes at 7¢ despite the market pricing it as unlikely.
- This bettor wins 87% of resolved trades and is up $174k lifetime.
- They have placed $22.8k across 3 related markets, suggesting a broader thesis rather than a one-off bet.
- Entry at 7¢ is a long-shot position with large upside if the risk of losing Iranian control rises.
$1,290 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 87%
Cross-market geopolitical thesis
A modest but profitable wallet is building a broader cross-market geopolitical thesis, with about $35k positioned across related markets despite this individual trade being small.
- This bettor is up about $2,950 lifetime and has won 18 of 27 resolved bets.
- They have roughly $35k spread across 4 related markets, suggesting a broader view rather than a one-off bet.
- Buying at 8¢ implies a high-upside wager that Kharg Island control risk is underpriced.
$1,000 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 68%
Profitable cross-market bettor
Profitable geopolitical bettor is building a multi-market thesis, though this specific bet is modest and already below their entry.
- This wallet is up about $1.0M lifetime despite betting mostly long-shot outcomes.
- They have put $34.9K across 4 related markets, suggesting a broader geopolitical thesis.
- This Yes entry at 8¢ is a high-upside bet, though the market is now closer to 6–7¢.
$1,040 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 26%
$1M-profit longshot bettor
A highly profitable longshot-style wallet is building a broader 4-market geopolitical thesis, though this individual entry is modest and not confirmed by strong price momentum.
- This bettor is up about $1.0M lifetime despite a low hit rate, suggesting they specialize in higher-upside longshots.
- They have placed about $39k across 4 related markets in the same event, pointing to a broader geopolitical thesis.
- Entry at 8¢ implies a high-upside bet if they are right, with current market odds still near the low end.
$1,788 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 26%
Profitable cross-market whale
Profitable high-volume wallet is building a cross-market geopolitical thesis, buying a low-probability Yes despite modest standalone trade size.
- This bettor is up $1.0M lifetime on $8.3M traded despite usually betting long shots.
- They have put $35.7K across 4 related markets, suggesting a broader thesis rather than a one-off bet.
- Entry at 7¢ implies a high-upside view on a market currently priced as very unlikely.
$1,802 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 26%
Sharp wallet trimming No
Sharp wallet with an 87% resolved win rate and +$517k lifetime P&L is reducing a No position, which translates to a small contrarian Yes entry but may be partly profit-taking.
- This bettor wins 87% of resolved trades and is up $517k lifetime.
- They have traded $96.8k across related markets in this event, suggesting a broader thesis.
- This is a sell of No at 90¢, equivalent to buying Yes around 10¢, though it may partly be profit-taking.
$6,649 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 87%
Profitable bettor buys NO
A profitable high-volume wallet is making a fresh $27k NO bet alongside cross-market positioning and a major volume spike, suggesting a confident geopolitical view.
- This bettor has won 78% of 308 resolved bets and is up $217k lifetime.
- They have put $74.6k across two related markets, pointing to a broader thesis rather than a one-off bet.
- The trade came during a 126x volume spike, with $27k bought at 90¢ on No.
$27,000 on No | Wallet win rate: 77%
Profitable macro whale buying NO
Profitable high-volume wallet is re-entering a sizable No position amid a major pre-event volume spike and related cross-market positioning.
- This bettor has 1,019 resolved trades and is up $215k lifetime.
- They have put $83k across 3 related markets, suggesting a broader geopolitical thesis.
- Market activity is 126x above its historical pace, while No has strengthened over the past week.
$27,000 on No | Wallet win rate: 68%
Profitable cluster buying NO
Coordinated No buying from three wallets, including profitable serial geopolitical traders, alongside a large volume spike makes this worth surfacing despite the relatively low-upside 89¢ entry.
- Three wallets all bought No within minutes, putting nearly $15K on Iran retaining control.
- One buyer has won 69% of 1,019 resolved bets and is up $215K lifetime.
- This market saw a 96x volume spike, with related-event traders already deploying $65K across 3 markets.
$14,945 on No
Profitable cross-market thesis
Profitable high-volume wallet is building a cross-market geopolitical thesis, with $65k across 3 related markets and a fresh $8.9k BUY No here.
- This bettor is up $213k lifetime across more than 1,000 resolved markets.
- They have put $65k across 3 related markets, suggesting a broader geopolitical thesis.
- Entry at 89¢ is slightly below the current 90¢ odds, with the market moving toward No over the past week.
$8,900 on No | Wallet win rate: 68%
Top Holders
- 0x9648...6825 — No, $623,810 (69% win rate)
- 0xb1fa...1a14 — Yes, $620,139 (22% win rate)
- 0x9592...a7b8 — Yes, $428,000 (93% win rate)
- 0xae7c...487e — Yes, $352,000 (87% win rate)
- 0x8afa...adb6 — No, $196,214 (93% win rate)
- 0xe1e1...d250 — No, $169,494
- 0xf9d5...fba3 — Yes, $131,024 (64% win rate)
- 0x3c91...9af7 — No, $96,500 (77% win rate)
- 0x7d33...5502 — No, $93,979 (100% win rate)
- 0x1521...f23e — No, $89,942 (69% win rate)
