Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by...?
118 signals across 7 markets · $773,550 tracked · resolves Mar 31, 2026
This Polymarket event tracks whether Kharg Island is no longer under Iranian control by several 2026 deadlines, including March 31, April 15, April 30, May 31, and June 30. Traders are pricing a range of geopolitical outcomes, from continued Iranian control to a major control change involving another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority. PolySpotter has tracked $748,466 in smart money and 107 signals, including profitable clusters buying NO and high win-rate geopolitical traders watching tail risk.
Markets (7)
- Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31?53 signals · $352,804 tracked
- Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30?34 signals · $200,097 tracked
- Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 30?24 signals · $161,090 tracked
- Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by March 31?1 signal · $28,803 tracked
- Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 15?1 signal · $19,241 tracked
- Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by August 31?4 signals · $9,996 tracked
- Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by July 31?1 signal · $1,519 tracked
Top trades across all markets
- Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by March 31?
Five wallets put nearly $29k into the longshot Yes side, including one elite 82% win-rate bettor and a 76% serial cross-market trader, showing coordinated conviction in a low-probability geopolitical market.
$28,803Score: 18.3 - Profitable cluster buying NO
Coordinated No buying from three wallets, including profitable serial geopolitical traders, alongside a large volume spike makes this worth surfacing despite the relatively low-upside 89¢ entry.
$14,945Score: 16.6 - Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 30?
Three wallets coordinated into Yes by selling No around 79-80¢, including two profitable bettors and a highly active new wallet, signaling a shared geopolitical thesis rather than a routine single-wallet trade.
$14,332Score: 15.6 - Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 30?
A linked 3-wallet cluster with a large cross-market history and decent win rate is taking the Yes side on a geopolitics market at 40¢, which is notable enough to monitor despite only one trade in this alert.
$3,699Wallet win rate: 69%Score: 14.6 - 84% win-rate event specialist
A highly profitable serial cross-market trader with an 84% win rate is rotating into the bullish side of this geopolitical event after a large volume spike, making this a noteworthy signal despite modest trade size in a liquid market.
$3,480Wallet win rate: 81%Score: 13.1 - 87% win-rate geopolitical sharp
A highly profitable 87% win-rate trader with a large sample and broad cross-market track record just bought Yes at 31¢, making this a strong copy-trade signal despite the modest size.
$2,453Wallet win rate: 24%Score: 12.0 - Sharp geopolitics bettor
A proven sharp wallet with an 87% win rate and $366k profit is opening a fresh Yes position at 31¢ in a geopolitics market, making this a strong copy-trade signal despite the modest size.
$2,005Wallet win rate: 24%Score: 12.0 - 87% winner buying tail risk
A highly profitable 87% win-rate wallet is effectively buying Yes at 11¢ while positioning across related geopolitical markets amid a notable volume spike.
$3,560Wallet win rate: 88%Score: 11.1 - 85% win-rate geopolitics bettor
A highly profitable serial cross-market trader with an 85% win rate is making a fresh $3.5k bet on No in a major geopolitics market, which is the kind of sharp flow worth tracking even without whale size.
$3,520Wallet win rate: 81%Score: 11.0 - 85% win-rate event specialist
A highly profitable serial cross-market bettor with an 85% win rate is taking the same event thesis here, backing No at 88¢ in a liquid geopolitical market.
$2,640Wallet win rate: 81%Score: 11.0
Top wallets in this event
- 0x8afa03…adb6$81,303 · 3 markets · 7 alerts · 93% wins
- 0x7f9e2d…3a0e$54,837 · 2 markets · 8 alerts · 87% wins
- 0x88c491…129a$53,973 · 3 markets · 19 alerts · 88% wins
- 0x8837e1…b369$47,206 · 2 markets · 4 alerts · 100% wins
- 0xee318a…4735$46,384 · 3 markets · 5 alerts · 100% wins
- 0xfc2f4f…10c7$42,070 · 1 market · 10 alerts · 81% wins
- 0xc4086b…4675$35,900 · 1 market · 2 alerts · 68% wins
- 0x3c918a…9af7$34,308 · 1 market · 3 alerts · 77% wins
- 0xb8a717…7674$30,260 · 1 market · 1 alert · 68% wins
- 0x2974bd…9c23$26,665 · 2 markets · 7 alerts · 88% wins
FAQs
What are the Kharg Island control odds on Polymarket?
The odds reflect market-implied probabilities that Kharg Island will no longer be under Iranian control by each listed deadline. Because this event includes multiple child markets, traders can compare how the probability changes across March, April, May, and June 2026 resolution dates.
What does this Kharg Island prediction market resolve on?
The markets resolve based on whether Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over Kharg Island by the relevant deadline, and whether another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control. Temporary raids, strikes, sabotage, or isolated operations are not enough unless they change control under the market rules.
What is the smart money doing on this event?
Recent PolySpotter alerts show a mix of geopolitical sharp activity, with notable headlines including a profitable cluster buying NO, an 84% win-rate event specialist, and an 87% win-rate geopolitical sharp. There has also been attention to tail risk, suggesting some experienced traders are watching low-probability escalation scenarios.
How much smart money has been tracked on the Kharg Island markets?
PolySpotter has tracked $748,466 in smart money across the event, with 107 smart money signals. This includes activity across all five deadline-based child markets rather than just one contract.
When do the Kharg Island Polymarket markets resolve?
The event includes markets resolving by several 2026 deadlines: March 31, April 15, April 30, May 31, and June 30. Each child market is judged against its own deadline, so later markets may remain active after earlier ones resolve.