Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by...?
107 signals across 5 markets · $748,466 tracked · resolves Mar 31, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Kharg Island is no longer under Iranian control by March 31, 2026 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". “No longer under the control of Iran” means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over Kharg Island, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control over the island. Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own. An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established. If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island. If control over Kharg Island is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to “No”. The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.
Markets (5)
- Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31?53 signals · $352,804 tracked
- Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30?28 signals · $186,528 tracked
- Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 30?24 signals · $161,090 tracked
- Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by March 31?1 signal · $28,803 tracked
- Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 15?1 signal · $19,241 tracked
Top trades across all markets
- Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by March 31?
Five wallets put nearly $29k into the longshot Yes side, including one elite 82% win-rate bettor and a 76% serial cross-market trader, showing coordinated conviction in a low-probability geopolitical market.
$28,803Score: 18.3 - Profitable cluster buying NO
Coordinated No buying from three wallets, including profitable serial geopolitical traders, alongside a large volume spike makes this worth surfacing despite the relatively low-upside 89¢ entry.
$14,945Score: 16.6 - Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 30?
Three wallets coordinated into Yes by selling No around 79-80¢, including two profitable bettors and a highly active new wallet, signaling a shared geopolitical thesis rather than a routine single-wallet trade.
$14,332Score: 15.6 - Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 30?
A linked 3-wallet cluster with a large cross-market history and decent win rate is taking the Yes side on a geopolitics market at 40¢, which is notable enough to monitor despite only one trade in this alert.
$3,699Wallet win rate: 69%Score: 14.6 - 84% win-rate event specialist
A highly profitable serial cross-market trader with an 84% win rate is rotating into the bullish side of this geopolitical event after a large volume spike, making this a noteworthy signal despite modest trade size in a liquid market.
$3,480Wallet win rate: 85%Score: 13.1 - 87% win-rate geopolitical sharp
A highly profitable 87% win-rate trader with a large sample and broad cross-market track record just bought Yes at 31¢, making this a strong copy-trade signal despite the modest size.
$2,453Wallet win rate: 21%Score: 12.0 - Sharp geopolitics bettor
A proven sharp wallet with an 87% win rate and $366k profit is opening a fresh Yes position at 31¢ in a geopolitics market, making this a strong copy-trade signal despite the modest size.
$2,005Wallet win rate: 21%Score: 12.0 - 87% winner buying tail risk
A highly profitable 87% win-rate wallet is effectively buying Yes at 11¢ while positioning across related geopolitical markets amid a notable volume spike.
$3,560Wallet win rate: 90%Score: 11.1 - 85% win-rate event specialist
A high-win-rate, profitable cross-market trader with over $397k in realized profit is taking a sizable position on the likely outcome across multiple related markets in this event.
$3,480Wallet win rate: 85%Score: 11.0 - Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 30?
Four wallets, including two linked by funding source, put $21.8k into No on this geopolitical market, and the cluster includes a high-volume serial cross-market trader with a profitable long-term record.
$21,756Score: 11.0
Top wallets in this event
- 0x8afa03…adb6$81,303 · 3 markets · 7 alerts · 93% wins
- 0x88c491…129a$53,973 · 3 markets · 19 alerts · 90% wins
- 0x7f9e2d…3a0e$48,188 · 1 market · 7 alerts · 88% wins
- 0x8837e1…b369$47,206 · 2 markets · 4 alerts · 100% wins
- 0xee318a…4735$42,641 · 2 markets · 4 alerts · 100% wins
- 0xfc2f4f…10c7$42,070 · 1 market · 10 alerts · 85% wins
- 0xc4086b…4675$35,900 · 1 market · 2 alerts · 69% wins
- 0x3c918a…9af7$34,308 · 1 market · 3 alerts · 78% wins
- 0xb8a717…7674$30,260 · 1 market · 1 alert · 64% wins
- 0x2974bd…9c23$26,665 · 2 markets · 7 alerts · 94% wins