Part of: Starmer out by...?
Starmer out by May 19, 2026?
8 smart money signals detected, totaling $18,567.
Categories: Starmer, UK, keir, Grooming Gangs, Politics, World
Notable Trades
Profitable cross-market bettor
Highly profitable wallet is building a cross-market Starmer-out thesis across 5 related markets despite only a modest single trade here.
- This wallet is up $1.94M lifetime across nearly 900 resolved bets.
- It has put $24.8k across 5 related markets, suggesting a broader Starmer-out thesis.
- Entry at 10¢ comes as Yes has moved sharply higher over the last day.
$1,381 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 40%
Profitable serial cross-market bettor
Profitable serial cross-market trader with a 317-bet history is putting $10k across related Starmer markets, including $3.5k on No here.
- This bettor has won 69% of 317 resolved bets and is up about $20.8k lifetime.
- They have traded across 41 events and are now putting $10k into 3 related Starmer markets.
- Buying No at 87¢ suggests a high-conviction view that Starmer stays through May 19.
$3,500 on No | Wallet win rate: 71%
Profitable cross-market Yes flow
Three wallets are taking the Yes side on Starmer leaving office, including profitable cross-market political traders, amid a sharp 1-day price move higher.
- Three wallets are all betting Yes, entering around 13–15¢ after the market moved up 8 points in a day.
- One bettor has a 70% record across 415 resolved bets and is up $251K lifetime.
- The strongest cross-market signal shows $103K positioned across 4 related markets by traders with an 85% resolved record.
$4,552 on Yes
85% winner scaling No
Sharp 85% lifetime winner is extending a large cross-market Starmer position by buying No at 88¢.
- This bettor wins 85% of resolved trades and is up $1.3M lifetime.
- They have traded 104 related events and already put $103K across 4 markets in this Starmer event.
- Buying No at 88¢ suggests they see Starmer staying through May 19 as still underpriced.
$3,128 on No | Wallet win rate: 85%
Profitable cross-market political bettor
Profitable serial cross-market bettor is effectively buying Starmer-out exposure while positioning across four related markets amid a sharp 1-day Yes move.
- This bettor has a long record: 70% wins across 415 resolved markets and $251K in lifetime profit.
- They are active across 4 related markets with $15.7K total exposure, suggesting a broader political thesis.
- Selling No at 85¢ is equivalent to buying Yes at 15¢, while the Yes price has jumped 8.6 points in the past day.
$1,034 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 69%
Profitable cross-market bettor
A highly experienced profitable wallet is taking a cross-market No position against Starmer leaving office, with 805 resolved bets and $34.7k lifetime profit.
- This bettor has 805 resolved trades and is up $34.7k lifetime.
- They win 71% of bets across a large sample and are positioning across related Starmer markets.
- Buying No at 83¢ aligns with the market’s current 84% view but shows continued conviction against a resignation/removal by May 2026.
$1,249 on No | Wallet win rate: 69%
94% winner in funded cluster
Surfacing because the wallet has a very high resolved win rate and is part of a recurring funded cluster, though lifetime profit is modest and many wins were near-certain outcomes.
- This bettor has won 94% of resolved bets across 34 markets.
- Two wallets funded by the same source have appeared in prior clustered activity.
- They are backing the 86–87¢ favorite, suggesting a low-upside but high-confidence position.
$1,144 on No | Wallet win rate: 94%
Profitable serial cross-market trader
Serial cross-market trader with a long profitable history is buying No on a Starmer exit market, but the edge appears modest given the 86¢ favorite entry.
- This bettor has a long track record: 946 resolved bets, 58% wins, and $82K in profit.
- They are a serial cross-market trader, with $524K traded across 31 events and 51 markets.
- The trade backs the 86¢ favorite, so this looks like a lower-upside conviction bet rather than a long-shot call.
$2,580 on No | Wallet win rate: 58%
Top Holders
- 0xd519...932c — Outcome 86631791, $100,000 (18% win rate)
- 0xbc60...af79 — Outcome 86631791, $37,886 (67% win rate)
- 0xa022...77f8 — Outcome 86631791, $20,510 (70% win rate)
- 0x17ed...c087 — Outcome 86631791, $13,500 (57% win rate)
- 0x542a...a81b — Outcome 86631791, $12,000
- 0x5b67...d4da — Outcome 86631791, $11,630
- 0xb2b7...aaeb — Outcome 86631791, $11,234
- 0x1543...baaf — Outcome 86631791, $8,841 (65% win rate)
- 0x4a2b...af20 — Outcome 86631791, $8,000 (47% win rate)
- 0xaa4c...7bfd — Outcome 86631791, $7,613 (72% win rate)
Related Theses
Starmer exits in July
Covers 5 related markets
Iran deal lands in May
Covers 10 related markets
