What is the Starmer out by May 19, 2026 prediction market about?

This market is about whether Keir Starmer will stop being the UK Prime Minister at any time between market creation and May 19, 2026. If he leaves office or a resignation/removal is announced before the deadline, the market resolves to “Yes.”

When does the Keir Starmer Polymarket resolve?

The market is scheduled to resolve based on whether Starmer has ceased to be Prime Minister by May 19, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET, with the listed resolution date shown as May 19, 2026.

What counts as a “Yes” outcome for this market?

A “Yes” outcome occurs if Keir Starmer resigns, is removed, or otherwise ceases to be Prime Minister for any period before the deadline. An announced resignation or removal before the end date also triggers a “Yes,” even if it takes effect later.

What is the resolution source for this market?

The market states that the resolution source will be the government of the United Kingdom, meaning official UK government confirmation is used to determine whether Starmer remains Prime Minister.

Are there smart money signals on Starmer leaving office?

Yes. PolySpotter currently tracks $1,144 in smart money activity and 1 signal for this market, including alerts tied to a high-win-rate funded cluster and a profitable cross-market trader.

Part of: Starmer out by...?

Starmer out by May 19, 2026?

This prediction market asks whether Keir Starmer will cease to be Prime Minister of the United Kingdom at any point before May 19, 2026. It resolves “Yes” if he resigns, is removed, or otherwise leaves office before the deadline, including if a resignation or removal is announced before the market closes. PolySpotter is tracking $1,144 in smart money activity and 1 signal on this market.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Keir Starmer ceases to be the Prime Minister of the United Kingdom for any period of time between market creation and May 19, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement of Keir Starmer's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect. The resolution source for this market will be the government of the UK, however a consensus of credible reporting will also suffice.

2 smart money signals detected, totaling $3,724.

Categories: Starmer, UK, keir, Grooming Gangs, Politics, World

Notable Trades

94% winner in funded cluster

Surfacing because the wallet has a very high resolved win rate and is part of a recurring funded cluster, though lifetime profit is modest and many wins were near-certain outcomes.

This bettor has won 94% of resolved bets across 34 markets.
Two wallets funded by the same source have appeared in prior clustered activity.
They are backing the 86–87¢ favorite, suggesting a low-upside but high-confidence position.

$1,144 on No | Wallet win rate: 94%

Profitable serial cross-market trader

Serial cross-market trader with a long profitable history is buying No on a Starmer exit market, but the edge appears modest given the 86¢ favorite entry.

This bettor has a long track record: 946 resolved bets, 58% wins, and $82K in profit.
They are a serial cross-market trader, with $524K traded across 31 events and 51 markets.
The trade backs the 86¢ favorite, so this looks like a lower-upside conviction bet rather than a long-shot call.

$2,580 on No | Wallet win rate: 58%