US forces enter Iran by April 30?
This market will resolve to “Yes” if active US military personnel physically enter Iran at any point by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Military special operation forces will qualify; however, intelligence operatives will not count. US military personnel must physically enter the terrestrial territory of Iran to qualify. Entering Iran's maritime or aerial territory will not count. Military contractors, military advisors, or high-ranking US service members entering Iran for diplomatic purposes (and their accompanying entourage) will not qualify. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting. Note: Only US military personnel who deliberately enter the terrestrial territory of Iran for operational purposes (e.g., military, humanitarian, etc.) will qualify. Pilots who are shot down, or other cases in which US military personnel do not deliberately enter the terrestrial territory of Iran, will not qualify.
40 smart money signals detected, totaling $560,888.
Notable Trades
US forces enter Iran by April 30?
A high-volume cross-market trader with a long profitable record reopened a fresh Yes position at 71¢, and the market has already moved to 81¢ after the buy.
- This bettor has won 74% of 909 resolved markets and is up about $151k lifetime
- They bought Yes at 71¢ and the market is already at 81¢, showing strong immediate follow-through
- They trade heavily across related event markets with nearly $395k tracked, suggesting a broader thesis rather than a one-off punt
$5,418 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 74%
US forces enter Iran by April 30?
A proven high-volume bettor with a 75% win rate is back in this Iran market and also has a large three-market event thesis, making this fresh Yes buy worth tracking despite the market's deep liquidity.
- This bettor has won 186 of 247 resolved trades and is up $135k lifetime.
- They have put $254k across 3 related markets in this event, showing a broader geopolitical thesis rather than a one-off bet.
- This is a fresh Yes buy at 67¢ in a liquid market, suggesting conviction even after previously trading both sides here.
$5,707 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 75%
US forces enter Iran by April 30?
Profitable sharp wallet with a 77% win rate and $1.67M P&L is re-entering this market by buying Yes at 69¢, suggesting renewed conviction rather than routine profit-taking.
- This bettor wins 77% of 974 resolved trades and is up $1.67M lifetime
- They already closed an earlier Yes position and are now buying back in at 69¢, a sign of renewed conviction
- The bet is meaningful but not market-moving in a very liquid market, so the main edge here is the trader's track record
$4,140 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 77%
US forces enter Iran by April 30?
A proven high-volume bettor with a 75% win rate is reopening a sizable Yes position as volume spikes across related Iran markets, suggesting a renewed directional thesis rather than routine whale flow.
- This bettor has won 186 of 247 resolved trades and is up $135k lifetime
- They are trading 3 related Iran markets with $276k total, pointing to a broader event thesis
- They just bought Yes at 69¢ in a deep market, implying they still see the odds moving higher
$6,893 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 75%
US forces enter Iran by April 30?
Proven profitable cross-market trader with a 75% win rate is reopening a sizable Yes position on a geopolitics market after repeatedly trading related markets in the same event.
- This bettor has won 186 of 247 resolved trades and is up $135k lifetime.
- They have traded 64 related markets across 46 events, including 3 markets in this same event for $270k total.
- This is a fresh $21.3k buy at 67¢ in a major geopolitics market with deep liquidity, showing deliberate conviction rather than a random punt.
$21,256 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 75%
US forces enter Iran by April 30?
High-win-rate serial cross-market trader with nearly $588k in profit made a sizable fresh bet on a major geopolitics market, making this worth tracking despite no supporting flow signals.
- This bettor wins 82% of resolved trades and is up about $587k on nearly $8.9M invested
- They trade across 201 markets in 129 events, which points to a repeatable process rather than a one-off bet
- Bought Yes at 70¢ with $25.9k size on a major geopolitics market, showing real conviction even though the market has since slipped to 64¢
$25,861 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 82%
US forces enter Iran by April 30?
Profitable wallet with a strong 75% hit rate and $2.1M P&L just put $50k into Yes while building a larger cross-market thesis on the same event.
- This bettor wins 75% of resolved trades and is up about $2.1M lifetime
- They put nearly $50k into Yes at 64¢ and have deployed about $209k across 2 related markets on the same event
- Entry at 64¢ suggests they see US entry into Iran as more likely than the market price implies
$49,973 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 75%
US forces enter Iran by April 30?
A 3-day-old wallet has already made six flagged bets totaling nearly $45k and is adding another $3.4k position on a geopolitical market, suggesting unusually strong early conviction despite no resolved track record yet.
- A wallet less than 3 days old has already made 6 flagged bets totaling about $44.8k
- This is a fresh $3.4k buy on Yes in a major geopolitics market with deep liquidity, so the bettor is choosing to take real directional exposure
- They are also betting across 2 related markets in the same event, which points to a broader thesis rather than a one-off trade
$3,395 on Yes
US forces enter Iran by April 30?
A proven 77% win-rate trader with broad cross-market activity is building a multi-market thesis on this event and sold No at 41¢, a position already marked in their favor as No has moved to 36¢.
- This bettor wins 77% of their resolved trades and is up about $47.5k overall.
- They have traded 123 markets across 82 events and built a 3-market position on this same event.
- Sold No at 41¢ and the market is already at 36¢, so the trade moved their way quickly.
$4,995 on No | Wallet win rate: 77%
US forces enter Iran by April 30?
Five experienced wallets piled into No at 37¢ on a major geopolitics market, led by bettors with strong long-run profits and repeated cross-market event trading.
- Five wallets bought No within seconds, putting $24.3k behind the same view
- Two of the wallets have strong records, including one up $469k and another winning 75% of 244 resolved bets
- They entered at 37¢ for No while the market now prices No at 36¢, showing coordinated conviction in a major news-driven market
$24,273 on No
Top Holders
- 0x8c80...02c3 — Yes, $574,585 (75% win rate)
- 0x9648...6825 — No, $273,689 (72% win rate)
- 0x5188...c804 — No, $227,683 (82% win rate)
- 0xa022...77f8 — No, $200,000 (100% win rate)
- 0xde7b...5f4b — No, $180,979 (88% win rate)
- 0xc851...cd2a — No, $158,399
- 0x7744...999e — No, $145,158 (52% win rate)
- 0xc4d1...8ce8 — No, $122,800
- 0x53e5...6177 — Yes, $105,184 (42% win rate)
- 0x9f09...2848 — Yes, $84,358 (41% win rate)
