Part of: US forces enter Iran by..?
US forces enter Iran by April 30?
This market will resolve to “Yes” if active US military personnel physically enter Iran at any point by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Military special operation forces will qualify; however, intelligence operatives will not count. US military personnel must physically enter the terrestrial territory of Iran to qualify. Entering Iran's maritime or aerial territory will not count. Military contractors, military advisors, or high-ranking US service members entering Iran for diplomatic purposes (and their accompanying entourage) will not qualify. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting. Note: Only US military personnel who deliberately enter the terrestrial territory of Iran for operational purposes (e.g., military, humanitarian, etc.) will qualify. Pilots who are shot down, or other cases in which US military personnel do not deliberately enter the terrestrial territory of Iran, will not qualify.
50 smart money signals detected, totaling $473,224.
Categories: Trump, Geopolitics, Iran, Military Strikes, Middle East
Notable Trades
Pro cross-market event bettor
A proven high-volume trader with a 67% win rate is making a fresh, event-wide bullish bet across four related Iran markets, though the entry here is expensive at 90¢.
- This bettor has won 396 of 591 resolved trades and is up about $193k lifetime.
- They have put nearly $98k across 4 related Iran-event markets, showing a clear event-wide thesis.
- This is a fresh Yes buy at 90¢ in a very active market, so the edge likely comes from event reading rather than moving a thin book.
$5,550 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 70%
83% win-rate geopolitics bettor
A proven high-win-rate cross-market trader reopened a fresh Yes position at 87¢ in a fast-rising geopolitics market and is already marked up as the contract pushed to 92¢.
- This bettor wins 83% of resolved trades and is up about $273k across 53 settled markets.
- They trade heavily across related events — 76 markets across 41 events with more than $1.6M deployed.
- Bought Yes at 87¢ and the market is already at 92¢ after a 33-point move over the past week.
$7,405 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 80%
Proven geopolitics sharp
A highly profitable wallet with a 77% win rate is reopening a fresh position on a major geopolitics market, and its cross-market positioning suggests an intentional event thesis rather than a random trade.
- This bettor wins 77% of their trades and is up $1.67M across more than 1,000 resolved bets
- They are making a fresh buy after previously closing positions in this market, which points to renewed conviction
- The bet is part of a $19.4k cross-market thesis in the same event, suggesting a coordinated view rather than a one-off punt
$2,550 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 77%
75% win-rate macro bettor
A proven high-volume bettor with a 75% win rate across 813 resolved markets is buying into a fast-rising geopolitical market, making this worth tracking despite the modest ticket size.
- This bettor has won 613 of 813 resolved markets and is up $35k overall
- They trade across 122 events and 263 markets, which points to a repeatable macro-news process
- They bought Yes at 82¢ in a market up 23 points this week, backing continued momentum in a major news-driven market
$1,230 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 67%
7-wallet geopolitics cluster
A profitable serial cross-market trader from a 7-wallet funded cluster just sold Yes at 83¢, which translates to a fresh BUY No view at 17¢ on a fast-moving geopolitics market.
- Seven linked wallets share the same funder, a strong sign one actor is deploying capital with conviction.
- This trader has a 69% win rate across 330 resolved bets and has traded 127 related markets across 68 events.
- Selling Yes at 83¢ is equivalent to buying No around 17¢, while the market has surged 17 points in a day.
$15,464 on No | Wallet win rate: 65%
81% win-rate geopolitics bettor
A profitable wallet with an 81% win rate is making a large fresh bet into a fast-moving geopolitics market, suggesting a thesis worth watching despite the rich 85¢ entry.
- This bettor wins 81% of their resolved trades and is up about $106k overall
- They just put nearly $17k on Yes in a geopolitics market that is up 18 points in a day
- Buying at 85¢ shows strong conviction even after a sharp move, with about $23k deployed across related markets
$16,983 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 84%
Linked geopolitical bettor
A linked 3-wallet cluster is buying into a fast-moving geopolitics market, and this wallet also has a large proven history with 562 resolved bets and positive P&L.
- Three wallets funded by the same address are lining up on the same side here.
- This wallet has 562 resolved bets and is up about $25.6k overall.
- The market is already moving fast, with Yes up 23 points in a day and 30 points in a week.
$1,500 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 72%
Event specialist reloading Yes
A high-volume geopolitical specialist with a large multi-market thesis is buying back into this event despite already lofty odds, suggesting continued conviction rather than a random whale trade.
- This wallet has bet across 168 related markets and is up about $455k overall.
- They put nearly $58k across 4 markets in this event, showing a coordinated thesis rather than a one-off trade.
- This buy came at 87¢ after the market already surged, signaling they still see more upside in Yes.
$13,194 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 60%
81% win-rate geopolitics bettor
Profitable high-win-rate wallet is making a sizable follow-on bet on a geopolitics market that has already been moving sharply higher, suggesting conviction rather than routine flow.
- This bettor wins 81% of resolved trades and is up $106k across 32 settled markets
- They just bought $8.7k of Yes at 87¢ after this market jumped 20 points in a day
- They have also bet the same event in another market, pointing to a broader thesis rather than a one-off trade
$8,700 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 84%
7-wallet geopolitical cluster
A historically profitable serial cross-market trader from a 7-wallet funded cluster just made a fresh $25.5k buy on Yes in a major geopolitics market, suggesting coordinated high-conviction positioning rather than routine flow.
- 7 linked wallets share the same funder, a strong sign of coordinated conviction on this thesis.
- This bettor has won 69% of 330 resolved bets and is up about $63.8k lifetime.
- The wallet put $25.5k into Yes at 85¢ in a very active geopolitical market after previously closing older positions, making this look like fresh positioning rather than routine profit-taking.
$25,500 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 65%
Top Holders
- 0xb4a0...54b2 — No, $7,456,820
- 0x950e...f8e5 — No, $4,125,001 (83% win rate)
- 0x021e...67eb — No, $3,567,500
- 0x343c...29d0 — No, $2,366,825 (33% win rate)
- 0x125a...e0a7 — No, $1,021,248
- 0xb790...4466 — No, $854,836
- 0x7983...857c — No, $811,510
- 0x95cc...fffd — No, $695,188
- 0x5012...e6bf — No, $625,750
- 0x63d8...e2ab — No, $600,806
Related Theses
MicroStrategy sells Bitcoin by May
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