Part of: Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by...?

Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 10, 2026?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Anthropic's next Fable model (5.2+) is made available to the general public between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A qualifying model must have a name or model identifier that includes "Fable" and be designated as version 5.2 or higher, regardless of capitalization or surrounding prefixes, suffixes, dates, or descriptors. For example, a version 5.2 or higher named in the same manner as Claude Fable 5 or Claude Fable 5.1 would qualify, including a new whole-number generation such as Claude Fable 6, while models whose name does not include "Fable" or which retain a version designation below 5.2, such as Claude Fable 5.1 or Claude Mythos 5.1, will not qualify. A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by Anthropic as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Anthropic, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.

1 smart money signal detected, totaling $2,170.

Categories: AI, Tech, Fable, Claude, Anthropic, AI Releases, Claude Mythos

Notable Trades

Serial cross-market bettor backs No

A sizeable No position in a thin market aligns with a sharp 1-day odds move and comes from a serial cross-market trader, though the wallet's high win rate is not clearly above its typical odds.

  • The wallet put about $2,170 on No—more than the market’s displayed $1,565 liquidity—and Yes odds fell 23.5% over the past day.
  • This trader has bet across 25 events and won 88% of 4,412 resolved bets, but its average winning price of 95¢ does not establish a clear edge.
  • The two No buys average roughly 80¢; the market now prices No around 90¢.

$2,170 on No | Wallet win rate: 89%

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Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 10, 2026?

Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by...?$2,170 tracked1 signalAITechFableClaudeAnthropicAI ReleasesClaude Mythos
Yes
0¢
No
100¢

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Anthropic's next Fable model (5.2+) is made available to the general public between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A qualifying model must have a name or model identifier that includes "Fable" and be designated as version 5.2 or higher, regardless of capitalization or surrounding prefixes, suffixes, dates, or descriptors. For example, a version 5.2 or higher named in the same manner as Claude Fable 5 or Claude Fable 5.1 would qualify, including a new whole-number generation such as Claude Fable 6, while models whose name does not include "Fable" or which retain a version designation below 5.2, such as Claude Fable 5.1 or Claude Mythos 5.1, will not qualify. A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by Anthropic as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Anthropic, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.

Notable Trades

Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 10, 2026?

2026-10-07 22:03 UTC

$2,170 on No at 80¢

80¢→100¢↑20¢

Related Theses