Part of: Texas Republican Senate Primary Winner

Will John Cornyn win the 2026 Texas Republican Primary?

3 smart money signals detected, totaling $19,153.

Categories: Politics, US Election, Elections, Primaries, Parent For Derivative, primary elections, Texas Senate, Senate Primary, Republican Primary, Texas Primary, March 3 Primaries

Notable Trades

Profitable 78% winner buying NO

Surface due to the wallet's strong 78% resolved win rate and positive lifetime P&L, despite the alert's weak standalone signal and the trade moving against entry.

This bettor wins 78% of resolved trades and is up $26K lifetime.
They put $4.6K on No at 86¢, a concentrated bet on Cornyn losing the primary.
The market has moved against their entry to 72¢, making this a sharp-wallet follow rather than a momentum trade.

$4,608 on No | Wallet win rate: 63%

Linked cluster buying Yes

A linked 3-wallet cluster bought $10.9k of Yes during a 147x volume spike on a politically meaningful market with positive price momentum.

Three wallets bought $10.9k of Yes, with two wallets sharing a funder.
Market volume spiked 147x versus normal, and Yes is up 8.5% today.
One bettor appears to have flipped away from No, adding weight to the Yes-side move.

$10,880 on Yes

Will John Cornyn win the 2026 Texas Republican Primary?

A highly profitable 84% win-rate trader from a 5-wallet linked cluster sold Cornyn Yes at 31¢, which translates into a clear buy-No signal around 69¢ on a major political market.

This bettor wins 84% of their trades and is up $1.2M across nearly 1,000 resolved markets.
Five linked wallets share the same funder, suggesting a coordinated view rather than a one-off trade.
They sold Cornyn Yes at 31¢, which is equivalent to buying No around 69¢ in this market.

$3,665 on No | Wallet win rate: 85%

Top Holders

0xa5ef...2966 — Outcome 90947087, $442,135
0xde7b...5f4b — Outcome 75262277, $95,242 (80% win rate)
0x9d84...1344 — Outcome 75262277, $48,032 (40% win rate)
0xdc03...804c — Outcome 75262277, $23,113 (80% win rate)
0x0532...7047 — Outcome 75262277, $20,000
0xd1ac...08d5 — Outcome 75262277, $14,416 (49% win rate)
0x4e56...dee1 — Outcome 75262277, $13,794 (53% win rate)
0xdaef...54e9 — Outcome 75262277, $7,151 (66% win rate)
0xa022...77f8 — Outcome 75262277, $6,294 (70% win rate)
0x944e...8c94 — Outcome 75262277, $5,884 (66% win rate)

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Will John Cornyn win the 2026 Texas Republican Primary?

ResolvedTexas Republican Senate Primary Winner$19,153 tracked3 signalsPoliticsUS ElectionElectionsPrimariesParent For Derivativeprimary electionsTexas SenateSenate PrimaryRepublican PrimaryTexas PrimaryMarch 3 Primaries

This market will resolve according to the winner of the Republican Primary for United States Senator from Texas. If no 2026 Texas Republican Senate Primary takes place, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be the first announcement of the results from the Texas Republican party, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.