When will this Polymarket Fed rate hike market resolve?

The market is scheduled to resolve after the Federal Reserve releases its rate decision for the December 8–9, 2026 meeting. It may resolve Yes earlier if a rate hike occurs before then.

What is the resolution source for this market?

The primary resolution source is the official Federal Reserve website and its published interest rate decisions.

What counts as a Yes outcome?

A Yes outcome occurs if the Fed increases the upper bound of the target federal funds rate at any time in 2026 before or during the December 2026 meeting.

What smart money activity is PolySpotter tracking?

PolySpotter is tracking $1,697 in smart money activity for this market, including signals such as a 6-wallet Yes cluster, a three-wallet macro No cluster, and activity from high-performing macro bettors.

Part of: Fed rate hike in 2026?

Fed rate hike in 2026?

Q: What does the Fed rate hike in 2026 market predict?

This market predicts whether the Federal Reserve will raise the upper bound of the target federal funds rate at any point between January 1, 2026 and the Fed’s December 2026 meeting.

This prediction market tracks whether the Federal Reserve will increase the upper bound of the target federal funds rate at any point in 2026, through the December 8–9, 2026 Fed meeting. It resolves based on the Fed’s official rate decision, with $1,697 in smart money tracked and 1 smart money signal currently identified by PolySpotter.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the Fed's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting. The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

29 smart money signals detected, totaling $149,556.

Categories: Fed, Economic Policy, Jerome Powell, Economy, Fed Rates, Macro Single

Notable Trades

91% winner exits Yes

A highly profitable serial cross-market trader with a 91% historical win rate exited a Yes position, which is a notable directional signal despite the modest size and liquid market.

This bettor has won 91% of resolved trades and is up about $871K lifetime.
They are a serial cross-market trader, active across 354 markets with more than $818K tracked volume.
Selling Yes at 51¢ effectively points toward No at 49¢, though this looks like an exit from an existing Yes position rather than a fresh large bet.

$1,697 on No | Wallet win rate: 91%

83% winner fading hikes

Sharp serial cross-market trader with an 83% resolved win rate and $413k lifetime profit bought No on a liquid Fed 2026 rate-hike market.

This bettor wins 83% of resolved trades and is up $413k lifetime.
They are a seasoned cross-market trader with activity across 211 markets and over $5.0M deployed.
Buying No at 67¢ follows a sharp 1-week move against Yes, suggesting continued conviction that no 2026 hike occurs.

$1,046 on No | Wallet win rate: 83%

6-wallet Yes cluster

A coordinated 6-wallet cluster, including linked funding and experienced macro traders, bought $42.7k of Yes as the market moved sharply higher.

Six wallets bought the same side for $42.7k, with two wallets sharing a funder.
The move follows strong momentum: Yes is up 10 points today and 21 points this week.
Several experienced cross-market traders are involved, including one up nearly $399k lifetime.

$42,691 on Yes

85% winner fading hikes

Sharp wallet with an 85% resolved win rate and positive P&L is effectively buying No on a 2026 Fed hike at 53¢.

This bettor wins 85% of resolved trades and has beaten average market odds by 27 points.
They are effectively buying No at 53¢, betting the Fed will not hike rates in 2026.
The market is liquid, so the signal is mainly the wallet’s proven track record rather than size.

$3,085 on No | Wallet win rate: 86%

Three-wallet macro No cluster

Three wallets bought $20.6k of No during a 61.5x volume spike, including two high-volume profitable traders with strong macro-market history.

Three wallets bought $20.6k of No in the same window, pushing with one clear direction.
Volume spiked 61.5x above the market’s normal pace as No moved from 46–49¢ to about 50¢.
Two participating wallets are profitable long-term traders, including one up $231k across 1,245 resolved bets.

$20,615 on No

83% winner fading hikes

Sharp serial cross-market trader with an 83% resolved win rate and $413k lifetime profit bought No on a liquid Fed 2026 rate-hike market.

This bettor wins 83% of resolved trades and is up $413k lifetime.
They are a seasoned cross-market trader with activity across 211 markets and over $5.0M deployed.
Buying No at 67¢ follows a sharp 1-week move against Yes, suggesting continued conviction that no 2026 hike occurs.

$1,541 on No | Wallet win rate: 83%

Serial macro bettor winning 76%

A proven serial cross-market trader with a 76% resolved win rate and positive lifetime P&L bought Yes on a liquid Fed market after strong recent momentum.

This bettor wins 76% of resolved trades and is up $6.6K lifetime across 157 results.
They are a serial cross-market trader, active across 92 events and $218K in tracked volume.
Bought Yes at 65¢ after a 24.5-point one-day move, backing continued momentum toward a 2026 Fed hike.

$2,079 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 76%

Serial macro bettor winning 76%

A proven serial cross-market trader with a 76% resolved win rate and positive lifetime P&L bought Yes on a liquid Fed market after strong recent momentum.

This bettor wins 76% of resolved trades and is up $6.6K lifetime across 157 results.
They are a serial cross-market trader, active across 92 events and $218K in tracked volume.
Bought Yes at 65¢ after a 24.5-point one-day move, backing continued momentum toward a 2026 Fed hike.

$3,230 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 76%

81% cross-market sharp

Sharp serial cross-market trader with an 81% resolved win rate and positive lifetime P&L bought $4,000 of No on a macro market.

This bettor wins 81% of resolved trades and is up $62K lifetime.
They are a serial cross-market trader across 37 events with $1.4M in tracked volume.
Bought No at 66¢ after a major weekly move toward No, suggesting continued conviction against a 2026 Fed hike.

$4,000 on No | Wallet win rate: 82%

83% winner fading hikes

Sharp serial cross-market trader with an 83% resolved win rate and $413k lifetime profit bought No on a liquid Fed 2026 rate-hike market.

This bettor wins 83% of resolved trades and is up $413k lifetime.
They are a seasoned cross-market trader with activity across 211 markets and over $5.0M deployed.
Buying No at 67¢ follows a sharp 1-week move against Yes, suggesting continued conviction that no 2026 hike occurs.

$5,440 on No | Wallet win rate: 83%