Fed rate hike in 2026?
24 signals across 1 market · $80,423 tracked · resolves Dec 9, 2026
This event tracks Polymarket odds on whether the Federal Reserve raises the upper bound of the target federal funds rate at any point in 2026. Traders are pricing the Yes/No outcome based on Fed policy expectations, inflation data, growth risks, and signals from smart money activity tracked by PolySpotter.
Markets (1)
Top trades across all markets
- 19-wallet funded macro bettor
A profitable wallet tied to a 19-wallet funded cluster bought $7.4k of No on a major Fed market after a sharp weekly move toward Yes.
$7,383Wallet win rate: 70%Score: 8.0 - 89% serial macro bettor
Surfacing because a highly seasoned cross-market bettor with an 89% resolved win rate and positive lifetime P&L bought $3.3k of No on a low-activity macro market.
$3,284Wallet win rate: 63%Score: 5.7 - 91% winner flips toward Yes
Sharp wallet with a 91% resolved-bet record is exiting No, which converts to a Yes lean at 32¢ despite being more of a position reversal than a fresh large add.
$2,092Wallet win rate: 88%Score: 4.0 - 70% serial macro bettor
A highly experienced profitable bettor with a 70% win rate and $219k lifetime profit bought No on a major macro market, and the current price appears better than their entry.
$4,664Wallet win rate: 69%Score: 4.0 - Profitable cross-market bettor
Profitable high-volume cross-market trader bought No on a major Fed market, though the individual trade size is modest.
$1,180Wallet win rate: 41%Score: 4.0 - 83% macro cross-market sharp
Sharp serial cross-market trader with an 83% resolved win rate and +$411k lifetime P&L bought No on a 2026 Fed hike market.
$3,725Wallet win rate: 83%Score: 4.0 - Profitable cross-market macro trader
Profitable high-volume cross-market trader with a 73% record and $763k lifetime P&L bought No on a meaningful Fed market, though the stake is modest.
$1,307Wallet win rate: 73%Score: 4.0 - Fed rate hike in 2026?
A highly proven wallet with a 91% win rate and $1.81M in profit is taking a fresh macro view here by effectively buying Yes around 24¢.
$6,834Wallet win rate: 92%Score: 4.0 - Fed rate hike in 2026?
A very profitable serial cross-market trader with a 91% win rate is taking a fresh macro view here by effectively buying Yes at 25¢.
$4,685Wallet win rate: 92%Score: 4.0 - Profitable serial macro trader
Profitable serial cross-market wallet with a large sample and $164k lifetime P&L bought $4.1k of No on a liquid Fed 2026 market.
$4,096Wallet win rate: 41%Score: 4.0
Top wallets in this event
- 0x71edff…d338$19,984 · 1 market · 6 alerts · 83% wins
- 0x56c9fb…0d9e$11,519 · 1 market · 2 alerts · 92% wins
- 0xa309f9…4cf2$9,738 · 1 market · 3 alerts · 33% wins
- 0x59f1be…a693$7,383 · 1 market · 1 alert · 70% wins
- 0xbded63…5ae9$5,309 · 1 market · 2 alerts · 76% wins
- 0x2117ae…5c26$5,276 · 1 market · 2 alerts · 41% wins
- 0x5b6331…11a4$4,664 · 1 market · 1 alert · 69% wins
- 0xeadf59…26ef$4,132 · 1 market · 2 alerts · 88% wins
- 0xa9e64c…1dc2$4,000 · 1 market · 1 alert · 81% wins
- 0x3a8aa3…7699$3,284 · 1 market · 1 alert · 63% wins
FAQs
What are the odds of a Fed rate hike in 2026?
The odds are set by Polymarket traders buying and selling Yes or No shares on whether the Fed raises rates during 2026. PolySpotter tracks the live market price along with smart money activity to show how expectations are shifting.
What does the Fed rate hike in 2026 market include?
This event resolves to Yes if the upper bound of the federal funds target range is increased at any point from January 1, 2026 through the Fed’s December 2026 meeting. If no hike occurs by then, it resolves to No.
Is smart money betting on a Fed rate hike in 2026?
PolySpotter is tracking $11,519 in smart money activity across this event, with 2 smart money signals identified. These signals can help show whether experienced wallets are positioning for a hike or against one.
When does the Fed rate hike in 2026 market resolve?
The market is expected to resolve after the Federal Reserve releases its rate decision following the December 8–9, 2026 meeting, unless a qualifying rate hike occurs earlier in 2026.
Where can I track the Fed rate hike in 2026 prediction market?
You can track the Fed rate hike in 2026 Polymarket odds on PolySpotter, including live pricing, smart money flows, and signals from notable traders.