Fed rate hike in 2026?
39 signals across 1 market · $173,376 tracked · resolves Dec 9, 2026
This event tracks Polymarket odds on whether the Federal Reserve raises the upper bound of the target federal funds rate at any point in 2026. Traders are pricing the Yes/No outcome based on Fed policy expectations, inflation data, growth risks, and signals from smart money activity tracked by PolySpotter.
Markets (1)
Top trades across all markets
- Profitable cluster rotates into Yes
Four wallets deployed $11.6K toward Yes, including a highly profitable 78% bettor, though some trades appear to be reductions of existing No positions.
$11,571Score: 10.6 - 19-wallet funded macro bettor
A profitable wallet tied to a 19-wallet funded cluster bought $7.4k of No on a major Fed market after a sharp weekly move toward Yes.
$7,383Wallet win rate: 70%Score: 8.0 - Four-wallet coordinated No position
Four wallets, including two linked accounts and a highly profitable bettor, coordinated roughly $15.5K of No exposure as Yes fell 13% over the week.
$14,021Score: 6.7 - 89% serial macro bettor
Surfacing because a highly seasoned cross-market bettor with an 89% resolved win rate and positive lifetime P&L bought $3.3k of No on a low-activity macro market.
$3,284Wallet win rate: 63%Score: 5.7 - Proven sharp bettor buys Yes
A highly proven bettor with an 82% win rate and substantial positive edge is making a fresh $1,000 purchase of Yes.
$1,000Wallet win rate: 82%Score: 5.4 - Proven sharp bettor buys Yes
A highly proven bettor with an 82% win rate and substantial positive edge is making a fresh $1,000 purchase of Yes.
$2,975Wallet win rate: 82%Score: 5.4 - Proven sharp bettor buys Yes
A highly proven bettor with an 82% win rate and substantial positive edge is making a fresh $1,000 purchase of Yes.
$3,500Wallet win rate: 82%Score: 5.4 - Serial cross-market trader buys Yes
A highly active trader with a $744K profit history placed a fresh $2.5K Yes bet while the market was rising, though the trader's 72% win rate shows only modest edge over typical entry prices.
$17,518Wallet win rate: 72%Score: 5.0 - Coordinated shift toward Yes
Three wallets collectively exited $18.7k of No exposure during a 95.9x volume spike, signaling a coordinated shift toward Yes, though prior positions make this less compelling than fresh buying.
$18,689Score: 5.0 - Proven sharp buying No
A highly experienced and profitable trader with a 78% win rate and substantial edge is taking a fresh No position at near-market price.
$1,150Wallet win rate: 79%Score: 4.7
Top wallets in this event
- 0xa022ba…77f8$28,953 · 1 market · 3 alerts · 72% wins
- 0x71edff…d338$21,030 · 1 market · 7 alerts · 83% wins
- 0x56c9fb…0d9e$11,519 · 1 market · 2 alerts · 92% wins
- 0xa309f9…4cf2$9,738 · 1 market · 3 alerts · 25% wins
- 0xbded63…5ae9$9,501 · 1 market · 3 alerts · 76% wins
- 0xc7e53a…2d3a$7,475 · 1 market · 3 alerts · 82% wins
- 0x59f1be…a693$7,383 · 1 market · 1 alert · 70% wins
- 0x2117ae…5c26$5,276 · 1 market · 2 alerts · 46% wins
- 0x5b6331…11a4$4,664 · 1 market · 1 alert · 70% wins
- 0xeadf59…26ef$4,132 · 1 market · 2 alerts · 91% wins
FAQs
What are the odds of a Fed rate hike in 2026?
The odds are set by Polymarket traders buying and selling Yes or No shares on whether the Fed raises rates during 2026. PolySpotter tracks the live market price along with smart money activity to show how expectations are shifting.
What does the Fed rate hike in 2026 market include?
This event resolves to Yes if the upper bound of the federal funds target range is increased at any point from January 1, 2026 through the Fed’s December 2026 meeting. If no hike occurs by then, it resolves to No.
Is smart money betting on a Fed rate hike in 2026?
PolySpotter is tracking $11,519 in smart money activity across this event, with 2 smart money signals identified. These signals can help show whether experienced wallets are positioning for a hike or against one.
When does the Fed rate hike in 2026 market resolve?
The market is expected to resolve after the Federal Reserve releases its rate decision following the December 8–9, 2026 meeting, unless a qualifying rate hike occurs earlier in 2026.
Where can I track the Fed rate hike in 2026 prediction market?
You can track the Fed rate hike in 2026 Polymarket odds on PolySpotter, including live pricing, smart money flows, and signals from notable traders.