Part of: Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by…?
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by July 31?
This prediction market tracks whether Israel announces that all ground forces have withdrawn from Lebanese territory beyond the Litani River by the July 31 deadline. It resolves “Yes” if Israel makes that announcement by 11:59 PM ET on the specified date; otherwise it resolves “No.” PolySpotter is tracking $6,267 in smart money activity on this market, including signals from profitable geopolitics traders.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israel announces it has withdrawn all ground forces from Lebanese territory beyond the Litani River by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For this market to resolve to "Yes" it is sufficient that Israel announces its ground forces have withdrawn from all Lebanese territory beyond the Litani River, regardless of if some specified territory remains under their control or ground incursions by Israeli forces continue. However, an announcement of a planned or future withdrawal will not suffice. The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the Israeli government, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming that Israel has withdrawn may also be used.
4 smart money signals detected, totaling $12,367.
Categories: Middle East, Litani, Politics, Rewards 50, 4.5, 20, Israel, Lebanon, Israel x Iran, Geopolitics
Notable Trades
Profitable serial geopolitical bettor
Profitable serial cross-market trader bought No in a thin geopolitical market, taking meaningful size relative to daily volume and already getting favorable price movement.
- This bettor has won 71% of 183 resolved trades and is up $43.5k lifetime.
- They are a serial cross-market trader, active across 30 events and 43 markets.
- The $1.2k No buy was large for this thin market and entered at 70¢ before No moved to 74¢.
$6,267 on No | Wallet win rate: 71%
Profitable serial geopolitics trader
Serial cross-market trader with a 71% resolved win rate and +$46.6k P&L bought No on a geopolitical market, with the trade large relative to recent volume.
- This bettor wins 71% of resolved trades and is up $46.6k lifetime.
- They have traded across 52 events and 70 markets, suggesting a repeatable cross-market strategy.
- The $2.9k No buy was large versus recent volume, and the market has already moved from 75¢ to 78¢.
$2,874 on No | Wallet win rate: 71%
Profitable serial geopolitical bettor
Profitable serial cross-market trader bought No in a thin geopolitical market, taking meaningful size relative to daily volume and already getting favorable price movement.
- This bettor has won 71% of 183 resolved trades and is up $43.5k lifetime.
- They are a serial cross-market trader, active across 30 events and 43 markets.
- The $1.2k No buy was large for this thin market and entered at 70¢ before No moved to 74¢.
$2,036 on No | Wallet win rate: 71%
Profitable serial geopolitical bettor
Profitable serial cross-market trader bought No in a thin geopolitical market, taking meaningful size relative to daily volume and already getting favorable price movement.
- This bettor has won 71% of 183 resolved trades and is up $43.5k lifetime.
- They are a serial cross-market trader, active across 30 events and 43 markets.
- The $1.2k No buy was large for this thin market and entered at 70¢ before No moved to 74¢.
$1,189 on No | Wallet win rate: 71%
Top Holders
- 0x6bab...0fe5 — No, $7,254 (71% win rate)
- 0xb4f2...e5fa — No, $5,076 (71% win rate)
- 0x74bf...2a6e — Yes, $4,133 (75% win rate)
- 0x43bb...26db — Yes, $3,793 (36% win rate)
- 0xe7cb...d447 — No, $1,271 (76% win rate)
- 0x854e...b675 — No, $1,154 (90% win rate)
- 0x5bb3...4268 — Yes, $1,093 (34% win rate)
- 0xc8ab...6418 — No, $1,063 (47% win rate)
- 0x21ff...0d71 — Yes, $1,013
- 0xb9d4...9002 — Yes, $1,010 (52% win rate)
Related Theses
SpaceX IPO under $2.2T
Covers 5 related markets
Mojtaba remains out of sight
Covers 3 related markets
