Part of: US-Yemen ceasefire continues through...?
US x Yemen ceasefire continues through November 30?
This Polymarket market asks whether the US-Yemen ceasefire will continue through November 30, 2026; the supplied metadata does not include the current Yes or No price. It resolves No if the United States initiates a qualifying air strike or surface-to-surface missile strike that directly impacts Yemen by the deadline; otherwise, it resolves Yes.
This market will resolve to “No” if the United States takes a qualifying military action against Yemen by the specified date, 11:59 PM Yemen Standard Time. Otherwise this market will resolve to “Yes.” A qualifying military action refers to an air strike or a surface-to-surface missile strike, initiated by the United States, that directly impacts Yemen. An air strike includes bombs, air-to-surface missiles, and air-launched drones. A surface-to-surface missile strike includes one-way attack drones and surface-to-surface missiles such as cruise or ballistic missiles. The qualifying military action must be carried out by the armed forces of the United States. Actions carried out by private military contractors, mercenaries, or proxy forces will not qualify. Where a qualifying action is carried out in the course of a coalition or multinational operation, it will qualify only if the armed forces of the United States directly conducted the strike. The following actions do not constitute a qualifying military action: Munitions destroyed or intercepted before impact; Surface-to-air missile strikes; Small-arms fire; Ground incursions; Cyber operations; Naval gunfire and artillery fire; Howitzers, artillery pieces, mortars, and rocket artillery (e.g. MLRS systems); Minor surface-to-surface strikes, including short range loitering munitions, FPV drones, and ATGM strikes; Any threat, authorization, or announcement of force that has not been executed. Any munition that is intercepted or destroyed before impact does not constitute a qualifying military action. Debris, fragments, or any wreckage from intercepted munitions that land on Yemen do not constitute a military action regardless of any damage incurred. “Yemen” refers to the terrestrial territory of Yemen, including its internal waters. Yemen’s maritime territory and airspace are not encompassed. Where territorial borders are disputed, all territory claimed by and under the de facto control of Yemen as of market creation will qualify. The occurrence, attribution, and timing of a qualifying military action will be primarily determined based on a consensus of information available from the resolution sources. Where multiple sources conflict regarding the occurrence, attribution, or timing of a relevant military action, this market will remain open until the earlier of: i) the confirmation of the occurrence, attribution, and timing of the action based on a consensus of information available from the resolution sources or ii) 3 full calendar days (Yemen Standard Time) from the date of the first credibly reported evidence of the action. If this period would extend past the end date, this market will remain open to allow for 3 full calendar days to pass. At the end of the third calendar day, if conflicting reports remain, the incident will be adjudicated based on the totality of information available from the resolution sources at that time. No single statement, denial, or presentation of evidence will govern where it is contradicted by the totality of information. The resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments and militaries of the United States and Yemen and a consensus of credible reporting.
2 smart money signals detected, totaling $7,142.
Categories: Trump, Yemen, Military, Politics, Geopolitics, Middle East, Military Actions, Military Strikes
Notable Trades
94% winner adding to YES
A highly profitable serial trader added a $4,744 YES position in a quiet market, though their 94% win rate is tempered by a 97¢ average winning entry.
- This trader has won 94% of 1,835 resolved bets and is up $345,930 overall.
- They bought another $4,744 of YES—about 49 times the market’s $97 in 24-hour volume—and already held $6,100.
- The 78¢ entry is well below their 97¢ average winning entry, though that track record is mostly built on high-priced bets.
$4,744 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 95%
97% winner adds to Yes position
A bettor with 29 wins in 30 resolved markets is adding $2,398 to Yes in a very low-volume market, though the trade is near their existing entry.
- This bettor has won 29 of 30 resolved markets, well above the roughly 70% average odds reported.
- The $2,398 buy is nearly 12 times the market’s recent 24-hour volume.
- They are adding to an existing Yes position, with this trade priced at 69¢.
$2,398 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 95%
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