Part of: Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by...?
Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 15, 2026?
6 smart money signals detected, totaling $11,679.
Categories: Iran, Israel, Geopolitics, Iran Ceasefire, Lebanon
Notable Trades
88% win-rate geopolitics bettor
A highly profitable 88% win-rate trader is making a fresh cross-market geopolitical bet on a low-probability Yes outcome, which is notable despite the modest size.
- This bettor wins 88% of resolved trades and is up about $920k lifetime.
- They trade this type of event repeatedly across 75 events and 122 markets, suggesting a real macro process rather than a one-off punt.
- They bought Yes at 8¢ while the market sits near 6-7¢, a cheap asymmetric position if their event thesis is right.
$2,643 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 82%
Profitable geopolitical thesis trader
A high-volume serial cross-market bettor with nearly $955k in profit is opening a fresh small Yes position at 7¢ on a geopolitical market after previously trading both sides, suggesting a low-cost directional thesis rather than routine profit-taking.
- This bettor has won 561 of 876 resolved markets and is up about $955k lifetime.
- They trade across related events at scale — 40 markets across 29 events for $1.24M total.
- This is a fresh buy at 7¢ in a liquid geopolitics market, pricing the ceasefire as a cheap high-upside outcome.
$1,515 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 64%
Serial event trader reloads Yes
A high-volume serial cross-market trader with a strong long-run record reopened a Yes position at 14¢ in a geopolitics market after previously trading both sides, suggesting fresh thesis-driven conviction.
- This wallet has 875 resolved bets, wins 64% of them, and is up about $868k lifetime.
- It trades across related markets heavily — 25 events and 34 markets for about $818k — which suggests event-driven skill rather than a one-off punt.
- Bought Yes at 14¢ and the market is now 19¢, so the entry implied a cheap asymmetric bet on a ceasefire.
$1,379 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 64%
Profitable geopolitical re-entry
A proven profitable trader with a 75% win rate is re-entering the bullish side of a geopolitics market by selling No at 85¢, effectively buying Yes around 15¢ after previously trading this market successfully.
- This bettor wins 75% of resolved trades and is up about $201k across nearly 300 settled markets.
- Selling No at 85¢ is the same as buying Yes at 15¢, a cheap re-entry after this market dropped 42.5% in a day.
- This wallet trades related event markets heavily — 61 events and $4.2M of volume suggest a repeatable thesis, not a random punt.
$2,078 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 74%
85% win-rate geopolitics bettor
A high-win-rate bettor with an 85% record is taking a directional view across related ceasefire markets, making this small but trackable geopolitical thesis worth surfacing.
- This bettor wins 85% of resolved trades with a 17-3 record
- They are betting across two related markets in the same event, suggesting a clear geopolitical thesis
- Bought No at 81¢, a high-confidence stance that no ceasefire deal happens by April 15
$2,525 on No | Wallet win rate: 85%
88% win-rate thesis trader
A highly profitable wallet with an 88% win rate is building a broader thesis across three related ceasefire markets and just bought Yes at 38¢.
- This bettor wins 88% of resolved trades and is up about $380k lifetime
- They have put $24.4k across 3 related markets in the same event, showing a coordinated thesis rather than a one-off bet
- They bought Yes at 38¢ while the market now sits around 39¢, suggesting they see meaningful upside before April 2026
$1,538 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 84%
Top Holders
- 0x5554...33ce — Outcome 36172824, $373,719
- 0x302d...6d6f — Outcome 36172824, $123,700 (75% win rate)
- 0xc191...ae6c — Outcome 36172824, $67,541
- 0x2a33...c087 — Outcome 36172824, $45,355 (45% win rate)
- 0x0484...e0ee — Outcome 36172824, $33,094 (45% win rate)
- 0xae40...9571 — Outcome 36172824, $23,890
- 0xc658...b784 — Outcome 36172824, $23,718 (68% win rate)
- 0x9e1a...2121 — Outcome 36172824, $22,907
- 0xfd2b...8e50 — Outcome 36172824, $21,395 (56% win rate)
- 0xc3db...0f98 — Outcome 36172824, $20,514 (60% win rate)
