Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by...?
37 signals across 3 markets · $157,208 tracked · resolves Jun 30, 2026
This Polymarket event tracks whether Israel and Hezbollah reach an official, mutually announced ceasefire by several 2026 deadlines, including April 15, April 30, and June 30. PolySpotter is monitoring $157K+ in smart money activity across the event, including ceasefire clusters, fades, and high win-rate geopolitics bettors.
Markets (3)
Top trades across all markets
- 6-wallet ceasefire cluster
Six wallets put $31k behind Yes in a geopolitics market while the price was dropping fast, creating a notable two-sided battle with some profitable repeat bettors adding fresh exposure.
$31,348Score: 20.9 - 88% win-rate geopolitics bettor
A highly profitable 88% win-rate trader is making a fresh cross-market geopolitical bet on a low-probability Yes outcome, which is notable despite the modest size.
$2,643Wallet win rate: 80%Score: 11.0 - 3-wallet ceasefire fade
Three wallets sold Yes together into a fast 20-point move, creating a coordinated bearish signal on a major geopolitics market despite mixed individual records.
$5,690Score: 10.1 - 88% win-rate geopolitical bettor
A highly profitable cross-market trader with an 88% win rate bought Yes at 23¢ after a sharp one-day selloff, making this a worthwhile signal despite the modest size.
$1,000Wallet win rate: 80%Score: 9.0 - 88% win-rate macro bettor
A highly profitable serial cross-market trader with an 88% win rate bought Yes at 70¢ ahead of a major move to 77%, making this a strong signal worth surfacing.
$1,184Wallet win rate: 80%Score: 9.0 - 88% win-rate geopolitics bettor
A highly profitable cross-market trader with an 88% win rate and nearly $1M in profit just made a fresh $3k Yes bet into a major geopolitics market during an unusual volume surge.
$3,043Wallet win rate: 80%Score: 8.3 - Profitable geopolitical re-entry
A proven profitable trader with a 75% win rate is re-entering the bullish side of a geopolitics market by selling No at 85¢, effectively buying Yes around 15¢ after previously trading this market successfully.
$2,078Wallet win rate: 72%Score: 8.0 - 88% winner flips to No
A highly profitable wallet with an 88% win rate flipped from a closed Yes position into an $11k No bet while trading multiple related markets during a volume spike.
$11,023Wallet win rate: 79%Score: 7.5 - 88% win-rate thesis trader
A highly profitable wallet with an 88% win rate is building a broader thesis across three related ceasefire markets and just bought Yes at 38¢.
$1,538Wallet win rate: 79%Score: 7.0 - Profitable geopolitical thesis trader
A high-volume serial cross-market bettor with nearly $955k in profit is opening a fresh small Yes position at 7¢ on a geopolitical market after previously trading both sides, suggesting a low-cost directional thesis rather than routine profit-taking.
$1,515Wallet win rate: 64%Score: 7.0
Top wallets in this event
- 0xde7be6…5f4b$18,601 · 3 markets · 7 alerts · 80% wins
- 0xfc2f4f…10c7$18,102 · 3 markets · 5 alerts · 79% wins
- 0xbaa2bc…2c73$14,708 · 3 markets · 4 alerts · 64% wins
- 0xbb8e64…b243$12,321 · 1 market · 1 alert · 69% wins
- 0xce85d4…ccd7$11,917 · 1 market · 2 alerts · 86% wins
- 0xc84f7e…e0c5$8,516 · 1 market · 4 alerts · 88% wins
- 0xf67cff…0d14$6,843 · 2 markets · 2 alerts · 85% wins
- 0x35bbba…009b$5,876 · 2 markets · 4 alerts · 72% wins
- 0x9dbc92…245d$2,027 · 1 market · 1 alert · 50% wins
- 0x9fe857…2c91$1,881 · 1 market · 1 alert · 88% wins
FAQs
What are the Israel-Hezbollah ceasefire prediction market odds?
The odds reflect how traders are pricing the chance of an official Israel-Hezbollah ceasefire by each listed deadline: April 15, April 30, and June 30, 2026. Because this is an event hub, the market view includes multiple deadline-based outcomes rather than a single yes/no contract.
What is smart money doing on the Israel-Hezbollah ceasefire markets?
PolySpotter has tracked $157,208 in smart money activity and 37 signals across this event. Recent alerts include a 6-wallet ceasefire cluster, a 3-wallet ceasefire fade, and activity from 88% win-rate geopolitics and macro bettors.
When do these Israel-Hezbollah ceasefire markets resolve?
The child markets resolve based on whether an official ceasefire agreement is reached by their listed deadlines, with the latest deadline currently June 30, 2026. A deal can count even if it takes effect after the deadline, as long as it is officially reached before the cutoff.
What counts as a ceasefire for this Polymarket event?
The event requires a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in direct military engagement between Israel and Hezbollah. Informal understandings, backchannel talks, or general de-escalation without an official agreement would not be enough.
Why follow smart money for this ceasefire event?
Geopolitical prediction markets can move quickly on news, negotiations, and trader positioning. Smart money alerts help identify when high-performing wallets or coordinated clusters are buying or fading specific ceasefire deadlines.