Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by...?
37 signals across 3 markets · $157,208 tracked · resolves Jun 30, 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if there is an official ceasefire agreement, defined as a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in direct military engagement, between Israel and Hezbollah by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. If the agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of whether the ceasefire officially takes effect after the resolution date. Any form of informal understanding, backchannel communication, de-escalation without an announced agreement, or unilateral pause in hostilities will not be considered an official ceasefire. Humanitarian pauses, limited operational pauses, or temporary tactical stand-downs will not count toward the resolution of this market. A broader peace deal, normalization agreement, or political framework will qualify only if it includes a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement between the Israel and Hezbollah, effective on a specified date, or otherwise confirmed by an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting. Agreements that outline future negotiations or de-escalation measures without an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not qualify. This market’s resolution will be based on official statements from the Israeli Government and Hezbollah. However, a wide consensus of credible media reporting confirming that an official ceasefire agreement has been reached will suffice.
Markets (3)
Top trades across all markets
- 6-wallet ceasefire cluster
Six wallets put $31k behind Yes in a geopolitics market while the price was dropping fast, creating a notable two-sided battle with some profitable repeat bettors adding fresh exposure.
$31,348Score: 20.9 - 88% win-rate geopolitics bettor
A highly profitable 88% win-rate trader is making a fresh cross-market geopolitical bet on a low-probability Yes outcome, which is notable despite the modest size.
$2,643Wallet win rate: 86%Score: 11.0 - 3-wallet ceasefire fade
Three wallets sold Yes together into a fast 20-point move, creating a coordinated bearish signal on a major geopolitics market despite mixed individual records.
$5,690Score: 10.1 - 88% win-rate geopolitical bettor
A highly profitable cross-market trader with an 88% win rate bought Yes at 23¢ after a sharp one-day selloff, making this a worthwhile signal despite the modest size.
$1,000Wallet win rate: 86%Score: 9.0 - 88% win-rate macro bettor
A highly profitable serial cross-market trader with an 88% win rate bought Yes at 70¢ ahead of a major move to 77%, making this a strong signal worth surfacing.
$1,184Wallet win rate: 86%Score: 9.0 - 88% win-rate geopolitics bettor
A highly profitable cross-market trader with an 88% win rate and nearly $1M in profit just made a fresh $3k Yes bet into a major geopolitics market during an unusual volume surge.
$3,043Wallet win rate: 86%Score: 8.3 - Profitable geopolitical re-entry
A proven profitable trader with a 75% win rate is re-entering the bullish side of a geopolitics market by selling No at 85¢, effectively buying Yes around 15¢ after previously trading this market successfully.
$2,078Wallet win rate: 74%Score: 8.0 - 88% winner flips to No
A highly profitable wallet with an 88% win rate flipped from a closed Yes position into an $11k No bet while trading multiple related markets during a volume spike.
$11,023Wallet win rate: 85%Score: 7.5 - 88% win-rate thesis trader
A highly profitable wallet with an 88% win rate is building a broader thesis across three related ceasefire markets and just bought Yes at 38¢.
$1,538Wallet win rate: 85%Score: 7.0 - Profitable geopolitical thesis trader
A high-volume serial cross-market bettor with nearly $955k in profit is opening a fresh small Yes position at 7¢ on a geopolitical market after previously trading both sides, suggesting a low-cost directional thesis rather than routine profit-taking.
$1,515Wallet win rate: 63%Score: 7.0
Top wallets in this event
- 0xde7be6…5f4b$18,601 · 3 markets · 7 alerts · 86% wins
- 0xfc2f4f…10c7$18,102 · 3 markets · 5 alerts · 85% wins
- 0xbaa2bc…2c73$14,708 · 3 markets · 4 alerts · 63% wins
- 0xbb8e64…b243$12,321 · 1 market · 1 alert · 69% wins
- 0xce85d4…ccd7$11,917 · 1 market · 2 alerts · 86% wins
- 0xc84f7e…e0c5$8,516 · 1 market · 4 alerts · 90% wins
- 0xf67cff…0d14$6,843 · 2 markets · 2 alerts · 85% wins
- 0x35bbba…009b$5,876 · 2 markets · 4 alerts · 74% wins
- 0x9dbc92…245d$2,027 · 1 market · 1 alert · 50% wins
- 0x9fe857…2c91$1,881 · 1 market · 1 alert · 88% wins