Part of: Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by...?

Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 15, 2026?

6 smart money signals detected, totaling $11,679.

Categories: Iran, Israel, Geopolitics, Iran Ceasefire, Lebanon

Notable Trades

88% win-rate geopolitics bettor

A highly profitable 88% win-rate trader is making a fresh cross-market geopolitical bet on a low-probability Yes outcome, which is notable despite the modest size.

  • This bettor wins 88% of resolved trades and is up about $920k lifetime.
  • They trade this type of event repeatedly across 75 events and 122 markets, suggesting a real macro process rather than a one-off punt.
  • They bought Yes at 8¢ while the market sits near 6-7¢, a cheap asymmetric position if their event thesis is right.

$2,643 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 85%

Profitable geopolitical thesis trader

A high-volume serial cross-market bettor with nearly $955k in profit is opening a fresh small Yes position at 7¢ on a geopolitical market after previously trading both sides, suggesting a low-cost directional thesis rather than routine profit-taking.

  • This bettor has won 561 of 876 resolved markets and is up about $955k lifetime.
  • They trade across related events at scale — 40 markets across 29 events for $1.24M total.
  • This is a fresh buy at 7¢ in a liquid geopolitics market, pricing the ceasefire as a cheap high-upside outcome.

$1,515 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 64%

Serial event trader reloads Yes

A high-volume serial cross-market trader with a strong long-run record reopened a Yes position at 14¢ in a geopolitics market after previously trading both sides, suggesting fresh thesis-driven conviction.

  • This wallet has 875 resolved bets, wins 64% of them, and is up about $868k lifetime.
  • It trades across related markets heavily — 25 events and 34 markets for about $818k — which suggests event-driven skill rather than a one-off punt.
  • Bought Yes at 14¢ and the market is now 19¢, so the entry implied a cheap asymmetric bet on a ceasefire.

$1,379 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 64%

Profitable geopolitical re-entry

A proven profitable trader with a 75% win rate is re-entering the bullish side of a geopolitics market by selling No at 85¢, effectively buying Yes around 15¢ after previously trading this market successfully.

  • This bettor wins 75% of resolved trades and is up about $201k across nearly 300 settled markets.
  • Selling No at 85¢ is the same as buying Yes at 15¢, a cheap re-entry after this market dropped 42.5% in a day.
  • This wallet trades related event markets heavily — 61 events and $4.2M of volume suggest a repeatable thesis, not a random punt.

$2,078 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 74%

85% win-rate geopolitics bettor

A high-win-rate bettor with an 85% record is taking a directional view across related ceasefire markets, making this small but trackable geopolitical thesis worth surfacing.

  • This bettor wins 85% of resolved trades with a 17-3 record
  • They are betting across two related markets in the same event, suggesting a clear geopolitical thesis
  • Bought No at 81¢, a high-confidence stance that no ceasefire deal happens by April 15

$2,525 on No | Wallet win rate: 85%

88% win-rate thesis trader

A highly profitable wallet with an 88% win rate is building a broader thesis across three related ceasefire markets and just bought Yes at 38¢.

  • This bettor wins 88% of resolved trades and is up about $380k lifetime
  • They have put $24.4k across 3 related markets in the same event, showing a coordinated thesis rather than a one-off bet
  • They bought Yes at 38¢ while the market now sits around 39¢, suggesting they see meaningful upside before April 2026

$1,538 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 84%

Top Holders

  1. 0x5554...33ce Outcome 36172824, $373,719
  2. 0x302d...6d6f Outcome 36172824, $123,700 (75% win rate)
  3. 0xc191...ae6c Outcome 36172824, $67,541
  4. 0x2a33...c087 Outcome 36172824, $45,355 (45% win rate)
  5. 0x0484...e0ee Outcome 36172824, $33,094 (45% win rate)
  6. 0xae40...9571 Outcome 36172824, $23,890
  7. 0xc658...b784 Outcome 36172824, $23,718 (68% win rate)
  8. 0x9e1a...2121 Outcome 36172824, $22,907
  9. 0xfd2b...8e50 Outcome 36172824, $21,395 (56% win rate)
  10. 0xc3db...0f98 Outcome 36172824, $20,514 (60% win rate)

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Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 15, 2026?

ResolvedIsrael x Hezbollah ceasefire by...?$11,679 tracked6 signalsIranIsraelGeopoliticsIran CeasefireLebanon

This market will resolve to “Yes” if there is an official ceasefire agreement, defined as a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in direct military engagement, between Israel and Hezbollah by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. If the agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of whether the ceasefire officially takes effect after the resolution date. Any form of informal understanding, backchannel communication, de-escalation without an announced agreement, or unilateral pause in hostilities will not be considered an official ceasefire. Humanitarian pauses, limited operational pauses, or temporary tactical stand-downs will not count toward the resolution of this market. A broader peace deal, normalization agreement, or political framework will qualify only if it includes a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement between the Israel and Hezbollah, effective on a specified date, or otherwise confirmed by an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting. Agreements that outline future negotiations or de-escalation measures without an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not qualify. This market’s resolution will be based on official statements from the Israeli Government and Hezbollah. However, a wide consensus of credible media reporting confirming that an official ceasefire agreement has been reached will suffice.

Notable Trades

Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 15, 2026?

32d ago

$2,643 on Yes at 8¢

Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 15, 2026?

32d ago

$1,515 on Yes at 7¢

Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 15, 2026?

34d ago

$1,379 on Yes at 14¢

Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 15, 2026?

34d ago

$2,078 on Yes at 15¢

Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 15, 2026?

34d ago

$2,525 on No at 81¢

Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 15, 2026?

35d ago

$1,538 on Yes at 38¢

Related Theses