What needs to happen for this crude oil prediction market to resolve Yes?

The official daily high published by CME Group for the active front-month Crude Oil (CL) futures contract must be greater than $147.27 on any eligible trading day after the market was created and before the resolution deadline.

When does the crude oil all-time high market resolve?

The market resolves based on trading activity through the final trading day on or before December 31, 2026. If CME front-month crude oil futures do not exceed $147.27 by then, the market resolves to “No.”

What price level is this Polymarket crude oil market watching?

The key threshold is $147.27, the prior all-time high level referenced by the market. A CME official daily high above that level would trigger a “Yes” resolution.

What are smart money traders doing in this crude oil market?

PolySpotter has tracked $1,470 in smart money activity and 1 smart money signal. Recent alerts show sharp macro bettors, including traders with high historical win rates, buying “No.”

Why could crude oil reach a new all-time high by 2026?

Crude oil could move toward record highs if supply disruptions, geopolitical conflict, OPEC+ policy, underinvestment, or strong demand push futures sharply higher. However, weaker demand, higher production, or recessionary conditions could keep prices below the $147.27 threshold.

Part of: Crude Oil all time high by...?

Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by December 31?

This prediction market asks whether front-month CME Crude Oil (CL) futures will trade above the prior all-time high of $147.27 on any trading day before the final trading day on or before December 31, 2026. The market resolves “Yes” if the official CME daily high for the active month exceeds that level, and “No” otherwise. PolySpotter is tracking $1,470 in smart money activity, with recent sharp macro bettors buying “No.”

This market will resolve to "Yes" if, on any trading day after market creation, the official daily high price published by the CME Group for the Active Month (front month) of CME Crude Oil (CL) futures is greater than $147.27 by the final trading day on or before the specified date. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For CME Crude Oil (CL) futures contracts, the active month is the nearest of the contract months listed. The active month becomes a non-active month effective two business days prior to the spot month expiration. For example, if the spot month expires on a Friday the next listed contract will be considered the Active Month on the Wednesday prior to the spot month expiration. This market will resolve as soon as a high price greater than the listed value is published, or once finalized data for the final trading day of the specified time period is published and a high price greater than $147.27 has not been achieved. The resolution source for this market is the CME Group website (https://www.cmegroup.com/markets/energy/crude-oil/light-sweet-crude.quotes.html) — specifically, the daily "High" prices for the Active Month of Crude Oil (CL) futures.

12 smart money signals detected, totaling $22,537.

Categories: Geopolitics, Commodities, Oil, Finance, Iran

Notable Trades

95% winner buying NO

A highly experienced wallet with a 95% resolved-bet win rate bought No at 88¢, with the trade large relative to recent market volume and part of a cross-market oil thesis.

This bettor has won 95% of 391 resolved bets and is profitable lifetime.
The $2.6K buy was about 80% of recent 24h volume, showing conviction in a relatively quiet market.
They are also positioned across a related market, suggesting a broader thesis that crude oil will not hit a new all-time high.

$1,470 on No | Wallet win rate: 96%

95% winner buying NO

A highly experienced wallet with a 95% resolved-bet win rate bought No at 88¢, with the trade large relative to recent market volume and part of a cross-market oil thesis.

This bettor has won 95% of 391 resolved bets and is profitable lifetime.
The $2.6K buy was about 80% of recent 24h volume, showing conviction in a relatively quiet market.
They are also positioned across a related market, suggesting a broader thesis that crude oil will not hit a new all-time high.

$2,649 on No | Wallet win rate: 96%

87% winner buying No

Sharp wallet with an 87% win rate and $692k lifetime profit bought No on crude oil reaching a new all-time high.

This bettor wins 87% of resolved bets and is up $692k lifetime.
They bought No at 86¢, backing the market’s favorite side with a strong track record.
The wallet is also active across related markets, suggesting a broader crude-oil thesis.

$1,139 on No | Wallet win rate: 88%

87% winner buying No

Sharp wallet with an 87% win rate and $692k lifetime profit bought No on crude oil reaching a new all-time high.

This bettor wins 87% of resolved bets and is up $692k lifetime.
They bought No at 86¢, backing the market’s favorite side with a strong track record.
The wallet is also active across related markets, suggesting a broader crude-oil thesis.

$1,500 on No | Wallet win rate: 88%

80% winner buying No

A proven 80% winner with positive lifetime P&L is adding a cross-market macro position by buying No on crude oil reaching a new all-time high.

This bettor wins 80% of resolved trades and is up $17.4k lifetime.
They are positioning across 2 related markets, suggesting a broader view rather than a one-off bet.
Bought No at 86¢ as the market has moved against Yes over the past week.

$5,183 on No | Wallet win rate: 79%

80% winner buying No

A proven 80% winner with positive lifetime P&L is adding a cross-market macro position by buying No on crude oil reaching a new all-time high.

This bettor wins 80% of resolved trades and is up $17.4k lifetime.
They are positioning across 2 related markets, suggesting a broader view rather than a one-off bet.
Bought No at 86¢ as the market has moved against Yes over the past week.

$1,276 on No | Wallet win rate: 79%

80% winner buying No

A proven 80% winner with positive lifetime P&L is adding a cross-market macro position by buying No on crude oil reaching a new all-time high.

This bettor wins 80% of resolved trades and is up $17.4k lifetime.
They are positioning across 2 related markets, suggesting a broader view rather than a one-off bet.
Bought No at 86¢ as the market has moved against Yes over the past week.

$1,110 on No | Wallet win rate: 79%

87% winner buying NO

Sharp wallet with an 87% resolved-bet win rate and +$485k lifetime P&L bought No on a relatively quiet oil market.

This bettor wins 87% of resolved bets and is up $485k lifetime.
They bought No at 77¢, matching the market’s current view but with a strong proven track record.
The trade is meaningful for a quiet market, with only a few thousand dollars in recent volume.

$1,700 on No | Wallet win rate: 87%

Sharp macro bettor buys NO

Sharp wallet override: an 87% lifetime winner with +$478k P&L bought $2k of No on a long-dated crude oil all-time-high market despite only a weak low-activity signal.

This bettor wins 87% of resolved trades and is up $478k lifetime.
They bought No at 75¢, taking the view crude will not break its $147.27 all-time high by end-2026.
The market is moderately thin, so a $2k bet is meaningful relative to recent activity.

$2,000 on No | Wallet win rate: 87%

Sharp macro bettor buys NO

Sharp wallet override: this bettor has an 88% win rate and $287k profit, making even a modest quiet-market NO buy worth surfacing.

This bettor wins 88% of resolved trades and is up $287k lifetime.
They bought NO at 77¢ on a quiet crude oil market with only a few thousand dollars of recent volume.
The market has drifted toward NO over the past week, and this trade adds to that momentum.

$1,663 on No | Wallet win rate: 88%