Part of: Fed Decision in July?
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?
This prediction market asks whether the Federal Reserve makes no change to the upper bound of the target federal funds rate at its July 2026 FOMC meeting. It resolves based on the number of basis points the upper bound changes versus its pre-meeting level, with resolution expected on July 29, 2026. PolySpotter currently tracks $5,655 in smart money activity and 1 signal, including recent alerts showing profitable macro traders buying No.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings. This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's July 2026 meeting. If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps) The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for July 28-29, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm. This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their July meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
35 smart money signals detected, totaling $238,326.
Categories: fomc, Economic Policy, Economy, Jerome Powell, Fed, Fed Rates, Politics
Notable Trades
88% winner buying NO
Surface despite the weak volume-spike signal because the buyer is an extremely profitable wallet with an 88% resolved-bet win record and $6.4M lifetime profit.
- This bettor wins 88% of resolved trades and is up about $6.4M lifetime.
- They bought No at 23¢, taking the less popular side in a very liquid Fed-rates market.
- Market volume is running 12.3x above its historical average, adding momentum around this position.
$5,655 on No | Wallet win rate: 88%
85% winner fading consensus
Sharp profitable wallet with an 85% historical win rate is fading the market’s 80% Yes consensus by effectively buying No at 20¢.
- This bettor wins 85% of resolved trades and is up $14.5K lifetime.
- They are taking the contrarian side against an 80% market consensus.
- Buying No at 20¢ implies a high-upside view if the Fed changes rates.
$1,091 on No | Wallet win rate: 85%
Profitable 75% macro bettor
Surface due to a profitable 75% winner with a documented edge making a $10k fresh BUY despite only a modest standalone signal.
- This bettor wins 75% of resolved trades and is up $30k lifetime.
- They put $10k on no July 2026 Fed rate change at 75¢.
- The market is liquid, so the signal is mainly the bettor’s track record rather than order-book pressure.
$3,000 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 80%
99% winner buying the dip
A highly proven wallet with a 99% record and positive lifetime P&L bought Yes into a major volume spike on a liquid Fed rates market.
- This bettor has won 984 of 990 resolved trades and is up $5.2k lifetime.
- They bought $2.3k of Yes at 85¢ after the market fell about 7 points in a day.
- Volume is surging at 210x its historical pace, suggesting this Fed-rate outcome is getting fresh attention.
$2,912 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 99%
95% serial macro trader
A highly experienced serial cross-market trader with a 95% resolved-bet win rate and positive lifetime P&L bought Yes on a liquid Fed rates market.
- This bettor has won 95% of 2,862 resolved trades and is up $22.9K lifetime.
- They are a heavy cross-market trader, active across 560 events and over $827K in tracked volume.
- They bought Yes at 82¢, adding to a market that has already moved 7 points higher this week.
$1,804 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 95%
81% winner buying Fed hold
Sharp-wallet override: this bettor has an 81% resolved win rate with positive lifetime P&L and is buying Yes on a liquid Fed rates market at 76¢.
- This bettor wins 81% of resolved bets and is profitable over 187 markets.
- They are putting $9.5k on no Fed rate change at 76¢ in a highly liquid macro market.
- Their past wins came at 58¢ average odds, suggesting a strong record of finding mispriced probabilities.
$5,224 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 80%
96% serial macro bettor
Surfaced because a highly profitable serial cross-market trader with a 96% resolved win rate bought Yes despite the market being liquid.
- This bettor wins 96% of resolved trades and is up $102k lifetime.
- They have traded 543 markets across 427 events, with $6.2M total deployed.
- They bought Yes at 82¢ as the market has moved up 4 points today and 9 points this week.
$2,050 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 96%
96% serial macro bettor
Surfaced because a highly profitable serial cross-market trader with a 96% resolved win rate bought Yes despite the market being liquid.
- This bettor wins 96% of resolved trades and is up $102k lifetime.
- They have traded 543 markets across 427 events, with $6.2M total deployed.
- They bought Yes at 82¢ as the market has moved up 4 points today and 9 points this week.
$8,200 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 96%
83% macro serial trader
Surfacing because this is a highly profitable serial cross-market bettor with an 83% record re-entering a Fed rates position with meaningful size.
- This bettor wins 83% of resolved trades and is up $426K lifetime.
- They have traded 212 markets across 135 events, with over $5.0M deployed.
- This is a fresh re-entry after closing a prior Yes position, buying at 74¢ after the market fell 20% this week.
$1,989 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 83%
80% winner fading consensus
Sharp serial cross-market trader with an 80% resolved win rate and positive lifetime P&L is fading the 80% consensus on no Fed rate change.
- This bettor wins 80% of resolved trades and is up $33.8K lifetime.
- They are a serial cross-market trader across 130 events with $1.1M total volume.
- Selling Yes at 79¢ converts to buying No at 21¢, a contrarian bet against the current 80% market consensus.
$1,975 on No | Wallet win rate: 79%
Top Holders
- 0xa5ef...2966 — No, $2,065,834
- 0x3a8a...7699 — No, $678,767 (63% win rate)
- 0x714a...ab2f — No, $400,000 (28% win rate)
- 0xe951...de18 — Yes, $242,705
- 0xfbe6...00f8 — Yes, $212,305 (100% win rate)
- 0x8b6b...afd5 — Yes, $201,322
- 0x1521...f23e — Yes, $200,000 (70% win rate)
- 0x9bca...ca1f — Yes, $150,000 (69% win rate)
- 0xdbf1...86b5 — Yes, $143,767 (52% win rate)
- 0xa52b...9480 — Yes, $117,668 (96% win rate)
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