Fed Decision in July?
38 signals across 1 market · $365,536 tracked · resolves Jul 29, 2026
This event tracks prediction-market odds for the Federal Reserve’s July 2026 interest-rate decision, focused on whether the Fed leaves rates unchanged after the FOMC meeting. PolySpotter follows the market price alongside smart money activity, including recent signals from high win-rate macro traders fading consensus views.
Markets (1)
Top trades across all markets
- Profitable macro cluster buying No
Three wallets are pushing the same No thesis after a 77.6x volume spike, led by a highly profitable serial cross-market trader with a 72% win rate and $454k lifetime profit.
$49,207Score: 9.0 - 88% winner buying NO
Surface because a highly profitable 88% win-rate wallet joined a 3-wallet one-sided bet on No at 19¢ despite the market being liquid.
$11,421Score: 7.1 - Profitable serial macro trader
A profitable serial cross-market bettor with a 76% resolved win rate is fading the high-probability 'no change' outcome as the market has moved sharply against it.
$2,974Wallet win rate: 76%Score: 7.0 - Profitable serial macro trader
A profitable serial cross-market bettor with a 76% resolved win rate is fading the high-probability 'no change' outcome as the market has moved sharply against it.
$3,698Wallet win rate: 76%Score: 7.0 - 99% winner buying the dip
A highly proven wallet with a 99% record and positive lifetime P&L bought Yes into a major volume spike on a liquid Fed rates market.
$2,295Wallet win rate: 99%Score: 6.8 - Profitable serial macro bettor
Profitable serial macro bettor with a 72% resolved win rate bought nearly $15k of Yes during a major volume spike.
$14,933Wallet win rate: 72%Score: 6.8 - Profitable macro serial trader
Profitable serial cross-market trader with a 74% resolved win rate placed a $22.5k BUY on Yes during a major volume spike.
$22,544Wallet win rate: 74%Score: 6.1 - Profitable 75% macro bettor
Surface due to a profitable 75% winner with a documented edge making a $10k fresh BUY despite only a modest standalone signal.
$3,000Wallet win rate: 83%Score: 6.0 - 99% winner buying the dip
A highly proven wallet with a 99% record and positive lifetime P&L bought Yes into a major volume spike on a liquid Fed rates market.
$1,131Wallet win rate: 99%Score: 5.9 - 91% macro sharp fades consensus
A serial cross-market trader with a 91% win rate sold Yes at 79¢, which converts to a buyable No position at 21¢ on a macro market with decent liquidity.
$1,710Wallet win rate: 92%Score: 5.0
Top wallets in this event
- 0x74471a…a16d$78,000 · 1 market · 1 alert · 56% wins
- 0x71ca04…3501$41,599 · 1 market · 2 alerts · 72% wins
- 0x63d43b…a2f1$27,338 · 1 market · 2 alerts · 92% wins
- 0x8b6b42…afd5$22,787 · 1 market · 1 alert
- 0x7bc141…8db4$22,544 · 1 market · 1 alert · 74% wins
- 0xde5868…f55c$21,612 · 1 market · 2 alerts · 89% wins
- 0x9ddcb8…f21c$16,376 · 1 market · 3 alerts · 80% wins
- 0x71edff…d338$13,609 · 1 market · 3 alerts · 83% wins
- 0xf3a471…097f$13,000 · 1 market · 2 alerts · 83% wins
- 0xa52b78…9480$10,250 · 1 market · 2 alerts · 96% wins
FAQs
What are the odds of no change in Fed interest rates in July 2026?
The live odds are based on Polymarket pricing for whether the upper bound of the federal funds target range remains unchanged after the July 2026 FOMC meeting. PolySpotter tracks that market and highlights when sharp traders are taking positions.
What does this Fed July 2026 prediction market cover?
This event covers the Federal Reserve’s July 2026 rate decision, specifically whether there will be no change in interest rates versus the level before the meeting. Resolution is tied to the FOMC’s official target federal funds range decision.
What is the smart money doing on the July 2026 Fed decision?
PolySpotter has tracked $29,009 in smart money activity across this event, with 4 signals. Recent alerts include a 91% win-rate macro trader and a macro sharp fading consensus, suggesting notable disagreement among sophisticated bettors.
When does the Fed July 2026 decision market resolve?
The event is scheduled to resolve around the Federal Reserve’s July 2026 meeting, with the listed resolution date of July 29, 2026. The result depends on the official change, if any, to the upper bound of the target federal funds rate.
Can I use this page to track Fed decision Polymarket odds?
Yes. This hub is designed to track the July 2026 Fed decision on Polymarket, including the no-change market, live prediction-market pricing, and PolySpotter’s smart money alerts.