Fed Decision in July?
149 signals across 2 markets · $1,960,616 tracked · resolves Jul 29, 2026
This event tracks prediction-market odds for the Federal Reserve’s July 2026 interest-rate decision, focused on whether the Fed leaves rates unchanged after the FOMC meeting. PolySpotter follows the market price alongside smart money activity, including recent signals from high win-rate macro traders fading consensus views.
Markets (2)
Top trades across all markets
- 16-wallet linked bearish exit
Sixteen linked wallets collectively exited $159,000 of Yes exposure, aligning with a sharp 19% weekly decline and signaling coordinated bearish conviction despite substantial profit-taking.
$171,851Score: 11.0 - 93% winner scaling into Yes
A proven 93% winner with substantial edge is adding to an existing Yes position, alongside a 19-wallet funded cluster.
$2,000Wallet win rate: 94%Score: 9.6 - Profitable serial macro bettor
Profitable serial macro bettor with a 72% resolved win rate bought nearly $15k of Yes during a major volume spike.
$1,358Wallet win rate: 73%Score: 9.4 - Serial macro trader buying dip
Profitable serial cross-market trader is buying Yes alongside a 4-wallet one-sided flow and a 28x volume spike in a major Fed market.
$2,400Wallet win rate: 68%Score: 9.2 - 28-wallet one-way flow
Strong one-sided flow from 28 wallets plus a seasoned cross-market trader adding to an existing Yes position makes this Fed rates bet worth surfacing despite a highly liquid market.
$20,761Wallet win rate: 72%Score: 9.2 - Profitable macro sharp cluster
Profitable 328-bet wallet with a 76% win rate bought Yes at 90¢, with clustering from a shared funder adding corroboration despite the market being highly liquid.
$1,016Wallet win rate: 76%Score: 9.0 - Sharp wallet joins No cluster
High-conviction No-side flow from a 6-wallet cluster and a strong 16/17 wallet track record, though this wallet appears to be exiting a prior Yes position rather than opening fresh No exposure.
$13,999Wallet win rate: 95%Score: 8.2 - Macro whale adding No
Large profitable serial macro trader added a $69.8k No position as No rapidly moved up and event volume spiked ahead of the July FOMC meeting.
$69,782Wallet win rate: 69%Score: 7.8 - Three-wallet Fed dip buy
Three wallets bought $45K of Yes into a sharp selloff on a high-volume Fed market, supported by a 12.6x volume spike and cross-market positioning.
$29,273Score: 7.4 - 14-wallet funded cluster
A 14-wallet funded cluster has accumulated exposure to Yes, though this wallet is adding to an existing position and lacks a clearly exceptional track record.
$19,703Wallet win rate: 63%Score: 7.2
Top wallets in this event
- 0x71edff…d338$319,510 · 1 market · 22 alerts · 83% wins
- 0x63d43b…a2f1$198,665 · 1 market · 9 alerts · 91% wins
- 0x35bbba…009b$191,192 · 2 markets · 15 alerts · 73% wins
- 0x7bc141…8db4$158,759 · 1 market · 4 alerts · 70% wins
- 0xd84949…6ac7$119,890 · 1 market · 4 alerts · 72% wins
- 0x74471a…a16d$109,170 · 1 market · 2 alerts · 52% wins
- 0xbe189f…3be4$83,223 · 1 market · 1 alert · 82% wins
- 0x8e7614…448a$70,000 · 1 market · 1 alert · 100% wins
- 0xc6587b…b784$69,782 · 1 market · 1 alert · 69% wins
- 0x71ca04…3501$63,788 · 1 market · 7 alerts · 73% wins
FAQs
What are the odds of no change in Fed interest rates in July 2026?
The live odds are based on Polymarket pricing for whether the upper bound of the federal funds target range remains unchanged after the July 2026 FOMC meeting. PolySpotter tracks that market and highlights when sharp traders are taking positions.
What does this Fed July 2026 prediction market cover?
This event covers the Federal Reserve’s July 2026 rate decision, specifically whether there will be no change in interest rates versus the level before the meeting. Resolution is tied to the FOMC’s official target federal funds range decision.
What is the smart money doing on the July 2026 Fed decision?
PolySpotter has tracked $29,009 in smart money activity across this event, with 4 signals. Recent alerts include a 91% win-rate macro trader and a macro sharp fading consensus, suggesting notable disagreement among sophisticated bettors.
When does the Fed July 2026 decision market resolve?
The event is scheduled to resolve around the Federal Reserve’s July 2026 meeting, with the listed resolution date of July 29, 2026. The result depends on the official change, if any, to the upper bound of the target federal funds rate.
Can I use this page to track Fed decision Polymarket odds?
Yes. This hub is designed to track the July 2026 Fed decision on Polymarket, including the no-change market, live prediction-market pricing, and PolySpotter’s smart money alerts.