Event

Fed Decision in July?

4 signals across 1 market · $29,009 tracked · resolves Jul 29, 2026

The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings. This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's July 2026 meeting. If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps) The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for July 28-29, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm. This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their July meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.

Markets (1)

  1. Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?4 signals · $29,009 tracked

Top trades across all markets

  1. 91% macro sharp fades consensus

    A serial cross-market trader with a 91% win rate sold Yes at 79¢, which converts to a buyable No position at 21¢ on a macro market with decent liquidity.

    $1,710Wallet win rate: 92%Score: 5.0
  2. Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?

    An 82% win-rate macro trader with nearly $587k in profit put a meaningful new bet into this Fed market, which is notable even though the individual trade is modest and slightly above current price.

    $3,299Wallet win rate: 83%Score: 4.3
  3. 91% win-rate macro trader

    A very high-performing macro trader with a 91% win rate sold Yes at 76¢, which translates to buying No at 24¢ on a liquid Fed market.

    $1,213Wallet win rate: 92%Score: 4.0
  4. Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?

    LLM evaluation inconclusive — kept for manual review.

    $22,787Score: 1.3

Top wallets in this event

  1. 0x8b6b42afd5$22,787 · 1 market · 1 alert
  2. 0x71edffd338$3,299 · 1 market · 1 alert · 83% wins
  3. 0x56c9fb0d9e$2,924 · 1 market · 2 alerts · 92% wins

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