This bettor wins 83% of resolved trades and is up $115k lifetime. They have put $85k across 4 related markets, suggesting a broader MegaETH valuation thesis. Selling Yes at 89¢ is equivalent to buying No at 11¢, a contrarian bet against the market’s 90% Yes odds.

Part of: MegaETH market cap (FDV) one day after launch?

MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$1B one day after launch?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Fully Diluted Valuation of MegaETH's token is greater than $1,000,000,000 1 day after launch. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No." For the purposes of this market "locked" tokens or non-swappable tokens will not be considered a launch. "1 day after launch" is defined as 24 hours after launch. The resolution source for this market is the most liquid price source available. If MegaETH doesn't launch a token by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No."

35 smart money signals detected, totaling $286,314.

Categories: Airdrops, Featured, Crypto, MegaETH, Pre-Market, fdv

Notable Trades

83% serial cross-market bettor

Profitable serial cross-market trader with an 83% resolved win rate is buying Yes at 90¢ amid an 11.8x volume spike and strong weekly momentum.

This bettor wins 83% of resolved trades across 372 markets and is up about $20K lifetime.
They have traded 165 markets across 81 events, suggesting a repeatable cross-market strategy rather than a one-off bet.
Yes is up 14 points this week with an 11.8x volume spike, supporting the same direction as this buy.

$4,500 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 84%

11-wallet sharp cluster buys Yes

An 87% winning wallet from an 11-wallet funded cluster is adding a $12k Yes bet at 90¢ on a liquid crypto launch market with strong recent momentum.

This bettor wins 87% of resolved trades and is up $20.7k lifetime.
11 wallets share the same funder, suggesting coordinated conviction behind the Yes side.
They paid 90¢ on a liquid market that has moved up 12.5 points this week.

$12,000 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 94%

MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$1B one day after launch?

LLM evaluation inconclusive — kept for manual review.

LLM evaluation inconclusive

$1,016 | Wallet win rate: 64%

83% winner fading consensus

Sharp 83% win-rate wallet with $115k profit is taking a contrarian No-equivalent position while positioned across 4 related markets.

This bettor wins 83% of resolved trades and is up $115k lifetime.
They have $79,560 positioned across 4 related markets, suggesting a broader thesis rather than a one-off trade.
Selling Yes at 89¢ is equivalent to buying No at 11¢, a contrarian bet against a market priced at 90% Yes.

$2,029 on No | Wallet win rate: 85%

83% winner buying NO

Profitable 83% lifetime wallet is taking the contrarian NO side as part of an $85k cross-market MegaETH thesis.

This bettor wins 83% of resolved trades and is up $115k lifetime.
They have put $85k across 4 related markets, suggesting a broader MegaETH valuation thesis.
Selling Yes at 89¢ is equivalent to buying No at 11¢, a contrarian bet against the market’s 90% Yes odds.

$3,649 on No | Wallet win rate: 85%

83% winner fading Yes

A profitable 83% winner is making a contrarian cross-market MegaETH bet by selling Yes at 89¢, equivalent to buying No at 11¢.

This bettor wins 83% of resolved trades and is up $115K lifetime.
They have placed $81K across 4 related markets, suggesting a broader MegaETH thesis.
Buying No at 11¢ is a contrarian bet against a market currently pricing Yes at 90%.

$7,120 on No | Wallet win rate: 85%

83% winner fading Yes

Profitable 83% wallet with a $78.6k cross-market MegaETH thesis is fading the 88¢ Yes price, equivalent to buying No at 12¢.

This bettor wins 83% of resolved trades and is up $115k lifetime.
They have placed $78.6k across 4 related MegaETH markets, suggesting a broader thesis.
Selling Yes at 88¢ is equivalent to buying No at 12¢ after Yes rose 21 points this week.

$1,760 on No | Wallet win rate: 85%

83% winner buys contrarian NO

Proven 83% winning cross-market trader is taking the contrarian No side against an 88% consensus Yes price.

This bettor wins 83% of resolved trades and is up $115k lifetime.
They have $83k positioned across 4 related markets, part of a 26-event cross-market pattern.
Selling Yes at 88¢ is equivalent to buying No at 12¢, a contrarian bet against the market consensus.

$2,640 on No | Wallet win rate: 85%

83% winner buys NO

Profitable 83% winner is taking a contrarian NO position as part of a larger $82k cross-market MegaETH thesis.

This bettor wins 83% of resolved trades and is up $115k lifetime.
They have $82k positioned across 4 related MegaETH markets, suggesting a broader thesis.
Selling Yes at 88¢ is equivalent to buying No at 12¢ against a >$1B valuation.

$4,400 on No | Wallet win rate: 85%

83% winner buying NO

Profitable 83% win-rate wallet is taking a cross-market thesis across four related markets and effectively buying No here against the 88% consensus.

This bettor wins 83% of resolved trades and is up $115K lifetime.
They have a $76K cross-market position across 4 related markets, suggesting a broader thesis rather than a one-off trade.
Selling Yes at 88¢ is equivalent to buying No at 12¢, a contrarian bet against the current market consensus.

$1,760 on No | Wallet win rate: 85%