Part of: Texas Senate Election Winner
Will the Republicans win the Texas Senate race in 2026?
This prediction market tracks whether the Republican candidate wins the 2026 Texas U.S. Senate election in Texas, including any required runoff. The market has $3,260 in tracked smart-money activity and resolves based on the official election winner; live odds may change as the race develops.
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Texas U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs. A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date. Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party. The candidates may be named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party. The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
34 smart money signals detected, totaling $581,947.
Categories: Texas Senate, Texas Midterm, Senate Elections, Ken Paxton, James Talarico, Midterms, Politics, US Election, Elections, Global Elections, United States, Key Senate Races, Senate midterms
Notable Trades
Profitable bettor adding to No
A highly profitable bettor with a strong record is adding to a large No position, alongside a four-wallet funded cluster.
- This bettor has won 78% of 46 resolved bets and is up $332,485 lifetime.
- They added another $39,299 to No at 70¢, on top of a substantial existing position.
- Four wallets sharing a funder have placed $53,545 in this market.
$14,586 on No | Wallet win rate: 78%
Profitable trader adding to No
A highly active, lifetime-profitable trader added to an existing No position during a 63.6x volume spike, though the market is liquid and the trader’s win rate alone does not establish an edge.
- A trader up $307K lifetime added $2,621 to an existing No position, already worth about $14,194.
- Trading across 194 events, this wallet entered during a reported 63.6x spike in market volume.
$2,621 on No | Wallet win rate: 70%
New whale scaling into Texas Senate Yes
A repeat-flagged new wallet added over $100,000 to an already nearly $914,000 Yes position as market volume surged 63.6 times its historical average.
- A new wallet added $101,587 to an existing Yes position worth about $914,000.
- The trades coincided with a 63.6x volume spike, adding support to the unusually large position.
- The wallet has no resolved-position history, so its betting track record is unproven.
$101,587 on Yes
18-wallet funded cluster backing No
A wallet from an 18-wallet shared-funder cluster added $2,840 to a No position, making the coordinated activity notable despite no exceptional individual track record.
- 18 wallets sharing a funder have put $8,480 toward this market.
- This bettor added $2,840 to an existing No position at 71¢.
- The wallet has a 51% win rate, so the coordinated cluster is the stronger signal.
$2,840 on No | Wallet win rate: 51%
Profitable bettor adding to No
A highly profitable bettor with a strong record is adding to a large No position, alongside a four-wallet funded cluster.
- This bettor has won 78% of 46 resolved bets and is up $332,485 lifetime.
- They added another $39,299 to No at 70¢, on top of a substantial existing position.
- Four wallets sharing a funder have placed $53,545 in this market.
$7,687 on No | Wallet win rate: 78%
Profitable bettor adding to No
A highly profitable bettor with a strong record is adding to a large No position, alongside a four-wallet funded cluster.
- This bettor has won 78% of 46 resolved bets and is up $332,485 lifetime.
- They added another $39,299 to No at 70¢, on top of a substantial existing position.
- Four wallets sharing a funder have placed $53,545 in this market.
$39,299 on No | Wallet win rate: 78%
Proven bettor trims large Yes position
A highly profitable bettor with an 83% record sold Yes, but the $5,011 trade is small relative to their existing $238,451 Yes position, so it is a cautious bearish signal rather than a clear reversal.
- This bettor has won 280 of 339 resolved positions and earned about $560,000.
- They sold Yes at 31¢, equivalent to buying No at 69¢, but the trade is small beside their existing $238,451 Yes position.
- Their 83% record makes the move worth watching, though it may be position management rather than a firm change of view.
$5,011 on No | Wallet win rate: 82%
Proven 88% bettor buys Yes
A highly profitable bettor with 3,476 resolved positions and an 88% win rate is making a sizable fresh Yes position at 33¢.
- This bettor has won 88% of 3,476 resolved positions and earned $6.4M.
- They placed three buys totaling $6,635 on Yes at 33¢, near the current market price.
$6,635 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 88%
Proven 84% winner adds to Yes
A highly profitable bettor with 84% wins across 889 resolved positions is adding to an existing Yes position at 36¢.
- This bettor has won 84% of 889 resolved positions and is up $632,495.
- They are adding to an existing Yes position at 36¢, despite recent odds edging down.
- The $1,800 buy is a fresh increase in a market where this trader has also taken positions across the event.
$1,800 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 84%
Profitable serial bettor buys Texas Republican
A proven high-performing bettor with 89% wins and $6.5M profit is buying Yes at 36¢ in a liquid political market.
- This bettor has won 89% of 3,453 resolved positions and is up $6.5M.
- They are putting $4,581 on Yes at 36¢ despite the market currently pricing it at 36%.
- The wallet has traded across 1,693 events, showing a long history of active positioning.
$4,581 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 88%
Top Holders
- 0xa5ef...2966 — No, $1,076,020
- 0x60bf...942d — Yes, $913,947
- 0xde7b...5f4b — No, $306,809 (79% win rate)
- 0x226b...cad6 — Yes, $246,237 (74% win rate)
- 0x4488...e319 — No, $150,000 (52% win rate)
- 0x8e4d...583d — No, $150,000 (50% win rate)
- 0xf031...c80c — Yes, $125,108 (89% win rate)
- 0xc301...66aa — No, $123,992 (71% win rate)
- 0x5b63...11a4 — Yes, $119,763 (71% win rate)
- 0x65e7...6dde — Yes, $109,339
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