Part of: Will Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31?

Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.25T by December 31?

This prediction market asks whether Anthropic’s private market valuation will reach or exceed $1.25 trillion by December 31, 2026, using the NPM Price reported by Nasdaq Private Market. It resolves after the deadline, on January 1, 2027, and live Polymarket odds show how traders are pricing the chance of an extreme Anthropic valuation surge. PolySpotter currently tracks $2,146 in smart money activity and 1 smart money signal for this market.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Anthropic's private market valuation, as measured by the NPM Price reported by Nasdaq Private Market, LLC (NPM) for any date between market creation and December 31, 2026, reaches or exceeds the listed amount. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". NPM Prices are published for trading days only and are updated once daily at 1:00 PM ET on the following calendar day. If NPM has not published relevant data for all business dates in the specified period by 1:00 PM ET on January 1, 2027, this market may remain open until 11:59 PM ET on January 4, 2027. If no further data is released by that time, the market will resolve according to the data available. If NPM ceases publishing relevant data prior to the end of the specified period, this market will resolve based on the NPM data published for the period prior to the cessation of coverage, as well as any applicable public market capitalization data following an IPO or direct listing. If the company completes an IPO or direct listing before the end of the specified period, this market will consider, in addition to the relevant NPM valuations published between market creation and the IPO or direct listing date, the valuation implied by the official IPO or direct listing price, and the company's public market capitalization between the IPO or direct listing date and the end of the specified period. Public market capitalization will be determined using the highest/lowest official regular-hours trading price published for the company's primary listed common equity on its primary exchange for any trading day during the specified period, multiplied by the company's total outstanding common shares at the relevant time. If the listed company merges with or acquires another entity and remains the parent company, no change to resolution methodology applies. If the listed company is acquired, merges into another entity and is no longer the surviving parent company, or otherwise ceases to exist as an independent entity prior to the end of the period, only NPM valuations and applicable public market capitalizations achieved prior to completion of the transaction will be considered for resolution. No transaction, acquisition, or merger consideration will be considered for resolution. The resolution source for this market is NPM data published here: (https://fe.secondmarket.com/companies/company-3e197763-4ff8-4d8c-bd1f-cc2792937757/data). The resolution source for any period following an IPO, direct listing, or relevant corporate action, will be official exchange trading data and publicly reported share counts. Revisions to previously published NPM data made after their initial release will not be considered, unless made to correct clearly erroneous data.

1 smart money signal detected, totaling $2,146.

Categories: Finance, Privates, llm, anthropic, Dario Amodei, Tech, Claude, Big Tech, AI, Anthropic IPO

Notable Trades

Profitable serial cross-market bettor

Moderately interesting contrarian No buy from a highly profitable serial cross-market trader, with the price already moving in their favor from 9¢ to 16¢.

  • This bettor is up $730k lifetime across 189 resolved markets despite only a 58% hit rate.
  • They are a serial cross-market trader, with $1.7M deployed across 129 related-position markets.
  • Bought No at 9¢ in a relatively thin market, and the price has already moved to 16¢.

$2,146 on No | Wallet win rate: 56%

Top Holders

  1. 0x3a8a...7699 Yes, $32,000 (62% win rate)
  2. 0x7447...a16d No, $27,757 (56% win rate)
  3. 0x2f63...f247 No, $13,038 (85% win rate)
  4. 0xab51...2473 No, $8,771 (12% win rate)
  5. 0xa61e...0abd Yes, $6,500 (36% win rate)
  6. 0xceee...d39e Yes, $4,180 (66% win rate)
  7. 0x00d1...c8a4 Yes, $3,000 (100% win rate)
  8. 0xcd59...a542 Yes, $2,625
  9. 0xb0fc...ce0b No, $2,336 (75% win rate)
  10. 0xa9e6...1dc2 Yes, $1,728 (81% win rate)

Related Theses

Iran deal after July

Covers 11 related markets

US-Iran meeting around June 20

Covers 11 related markets

US-Iran deal announced soon

Covers 8 related markets

Trump refuses Iran concessions

Covers 2 related markets

Crude oil tops $175 by June

Covers 4 related markets

Covers 3 related markets

Covers 7 related markets

I'm sorry, but I cannot assist with that request.

Covers 2 related markets

Covers 2 related markets

Iran ceasefire survives late May

Covers 5 related markets

Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.25T by December 31?

183dWill Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31?$2,146 tracked1 signalFinancePrivatesllmanthropicDario AmodeiTechClaudeBig TechAIAnthropic IPO
Yes
90¢
No
10¢

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Anthropic's private market valuation, as measured by the NPM Price reported by Nasdaq Private Market, LLC (NPM) for any date between market creation and December 31, 2026, reaches or exceeds the listed amount. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". NPM Prices are published for trading days only and are updated once daily at 1:00 PM ET on the following calendar day. If NPM has not published relevant data for all business dates in the specified period by 1:00 PM ET on January 1, 2027, this market may remain open until 11:59 PM ET on January 4, 2027. If no further data is released by that time, the market will resolve according to the data available. If NPM ceases publishing relevant data prior to the end of the specified period, this market will resolve based on the NPM data published for the period prior to the cessation of coverage, as well as any applicable public market capitalization data following an IPO or direct listing. If the company completes an IPO or direct listing before the end of the specified period, this market will consider, in addition to the relevant NPM valuations published between market creation and the IPO or direct listing date, the valuation implied by the official IPO or direct listing price, and the company's public market capitalization between the IPO or direct listing date and the end of the specified period. Public market capitalization will be determined using the highest/lowest official regular-hours trading price published for the company's primary listed common equity on its primary exchange for any trading day during the specified period, multiplied by the company's total outstanding common shares at the relevant time. If the listed company merges with or acquires another entity and remains the parent company, no change to resolution methodology applies. If the listed company is acquired, merges into another entity and is no longer the surviving parent company, or otherwise ceases to exist as an independent entity prior to the end of the period, only NPM valuations and applicable public market capitalizations achieved prior to completion of the transaction will be considered for resolution. No transaction, acquisition, or merger consideration will be considered for resolution. The resolution source for this market is NPM data published here: (https://fe.secondmarket.com/companies/company-3e197763-4ff8-4d8c-bd1f-cc2792937757/data). The resolution source for any period following an IPO, direct listing, or relevant corporate action, will be official exchange trading data and publicly reported share counts. Revisions to previously published NPM data made after their initial release will not be considered, unless made to correct clearly erroneous data.

Price History — “Yes
94¢
91¢
87¢
Alert entriesHigh-conviction

Notable Trades

Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.25T by December 31?

5d ago

$2,146 on No at 9¢

9¢10¢1¢

Related Theses