Part of: Israel x Syria security agreement by...?
Israel x Syria security agreement by June 30?
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is an official security agreement, defined as a publicly announced and mutually agreed deal between the governments of Israel and Syria by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". This market refers only to agreements which directly address border security and demarcation, normalization, or diplomatic recognition or otherwise creates a formalized security framework between the two states. Ceasefire announcements or other announced de-escalations such as those relating to the July 16-18 skirmishes with the Druze, or any other future military engagements, which do not address the broader security relationship will not qualify. Only deals which are officially announced will qualify. Informal announcements which do not constitute a formalized agreement will not count. The primary resolution source will be official statements from the Israeli and Syrian governments. However, an agreement which is announced by only of the parties will qualify if an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirms that such a formal agreement has been reached.
8 smart money signals detected, totaling $57,240.
Categories: Geopolitics, World, Syria, Middle East, Politics, Israel, Trump x al-Sharaa
Notable Trades
Repeat new wallet on No
A repeat-flagged new wallet added $6.2k to No at 90¢ during a major volume spike on a geopolitics market, suggesting fresh conviction despite no resolved track record.
- A new repeat bettor put another $6.2k on No at 90¢ across three quick buys.
- This wallet has now been flagged 6 times with $12.4k in notable bets, but has no resolved track record yet.
- Market activity spiked about 140x above normal, adding support to the move.
$6,210 on No
New whale buying No
New repeat large-bet wallet put over $12k through the No side during a 100x volume spike, signaling fresh conviction despite no proven track record.
- A new wallet repeatedly bought No at 90¢, putting more than $12k through the same side.
- Market volume is almost 100x above its historical average, suggesting a sudden rush of positioning.
- The bet is on a geopolitical market where informed views are plausible, though this wallet has no resolved track record yet.
$12,420 on No
New wallet backs No spike
A new wallet made three repeat $2.1k buys on No during a major volume spike in a geopolitically sensitive market, suggesting fresh conviction despite no proven track record.
- A new wallet put $6.4k into No in three back-to-back buys at 90¢.
- Market activity is surging, with volume running about 58x above its historical average.
- The bet is on a geopolitics market where informed positioning is plausible, though the wallet has no resolved track record yet.
$6,426 on No
New wallet piling into No
A brand-new wallet is repeatedly deploying meaningful size into No, including prior $20.1k exposure on the same market, suggesting concentrated conviction despite no resolved track record.
- This wallet is only about 1 hour old and has already been flagged 4 times for large bets.
- It bought another $6.6k of No at 90¢ after previously putting about $20.1k into the same side.
- The market is pricing No around 91%, so this is a high-conviction bet that no formal Israel-Syria security agreement happens by the deadline.
$6,615 on No
Repeat new-wallet No buyer
A repeat-flagged new wallet is making another sizable No bet, but it looks more like continued conviction than a proven sharp edge.
- This new wallet has now been flagged 6 times, with about $12.7K in notable bets.
- The bettor is backing No at 90¢ on a geopolitical market where informed views may matter.
- They previously put $18.9K into No on this same market around the same price.
$2,124 on No
New whale backing No
New repeat large-bet wallet put $10.6k on No while the market saw a 111x volume spike, making this a notable geopolitical positioning trade despite no resolved track record.
- A new wallet made five No buys totaling $10.6k at 90¢.
- This wallet has now triggered repeat large-bet alerts, suggesting concentrated conviction rather than a one-off trade.
- Market activity is 111x above its historical average, pointing to unusual attention on this outcome.
$10,620 on No
New wallet volume spike
A brand-new wallet bought $2.2k of No on a geopolitics market during a major volume spike, suggesting fresh conviction despite no proven track record.
- A wallet created 35 minutes earlier put $2.2k on No at 90¢.
- This came during a 111x volume spike versus the market’s usual activity.
- The trade adds to a same-direction No view after a prior $500 position was closed.
$2,205 on No
New whale buying No
A new wallet repeatedly bought $10.6K of No at 90¢ during a 119x volume spike, showing concentrated conviction on a geopolitical market despite no resolved track record.
- A new wallet put $10.6K into the same side in five quick buys at 90¢.
- This was repeat activity from the wallet, with $8.5K already flagged before this alert.
- Market volume spiked 119x above its historical average, suggesting fresh attention on the No side.
$10,620 on No
Top Holders
- 0xef37...f2bc — No, $2,244
- 0x1fa8...2bcd — No, $1,186 (58% win rate)
- 0x88e2...7489 — Yes, $535 (45% win rate)
- 0x74b8...0c87 — Yes, $513
- 0xc781...59d7 — No, $500 (77% win rate)
- 0xb862...5aae — Yes, $356 (52% win rate)
- 0xac45...1dcf — Yes, $356
- 0x8c42...1616 — Yes, $356 (57% win rate)
- 0x43c9...47c1 — Yes, $356
- 0x1787...44a9 — Yes, $356
