Part of: Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by...?
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2027?
This prediction market asks whether Russia and Ukraine will reach a mutually agreed ceasefire by December 31, 2027, at 11:59 PM ET. It resolves Yes if both countries officially announce or credible reporting confirms a mutually agreed suspension of direct military engagement; otherwise, it resolves No. The market currently has $8,902 in tracked smart money and one signal, with a recent alert showing a serial bettor scaling into Yes.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if there is a ceasefire agreement between Russia and Ukraine by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A ceasefire agreement refers to any mutually-agreed suspension of direct military engagement between Russia and Ukraine, which is either officially announced by both countries or confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting to have been mutually agreed by both countries. A broader peace deal, normalization agreement, political framework, truce, or humanitarian pause will qualify if it includes a mutually agreed suspension of direct military engagement, to be effective on a specified date. Agreements that outline future negotiations or de-escalation measures without an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not qualify. Any form of informal understanding, backchannel communication, de-escalation without an announced agreement, or unilateral pause in hostilities will not be considered a ceasefire agreement. Only agreements which constitute a general pause in the conflict will qualify. Agreements which only apply to specific conflict categories (e.g. restrictions on certain target categories or certain locations) will not qualify. If a qualifying agreement is officially reached before this market’s end date, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of whether the ceasefire agreement officially takes effect after that date. The primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments of Russia and Ukraine and a consensus of credible reporting.
1 smart money signal detected, totaling $8,902.
Categories: Ukraine Peace Deal, Politics, Ukraine, Russia, putin, Geopolitics, zelensky, Trump, zelenskyy
Notable Trades
Serial bettor scales into Yes
A serial cross-market bettor is adding $8.9K to an existing Yes position at 70% in a relatively quiet market, though their historical record does not show a strong price-adjusted edge.
- This serial trader has placed over $9.2M across 182 markets and won 72% of 821 resolved bets.
- The $8,902 purchase is a substantial addition to an existing Yes position and far exceeds the market’s detected recent activity.
- The bet was placed at 70¢, matching the current market price, so it signals conviction more than a clear bargain.
$8,902 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 72%
Top Holders
- 0xd5cc...dea4 — Yes, $18,397 (72% win rate)
- 0xc23e...6499 — No, $10,000 (100% win rate)
- 0x7c3d...5c6b — No, $8,394 (53% win rate)
- 0xbc48...47bb — No, $4,633 (100% win rate)
- 0x0456...c88a — Yes, $2,802 (97% win rate)
- 0x1dd1...a156 — Yes, $2,532 (53% win rate)
- 0x5292...0a64 — No, $2,318
- 0x05dd...305c — Yes, $2,078 (54% win rate)
- 0x58e1...f652 — No, $2,037
- 0x7e56...984a — Yes, $1,500 (44% win rate)
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