Part of: Fed Decision in September?
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings. This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's September 2026 meeting. If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps) The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for September 15-16, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm. This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their September meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
50 smart money signals detected, totaling $525,572.
Categories: fomc, Economic Policy, Jerome Powell, Fed Rates, Politics, Fed, Economy, CPI Release
Notable Trades
95% winner scaling into No
A highly profitable bettor with a 95% win rate and $4.4M lifetime profit added $35,054 to an existing No position, alongside a three-wallet funded cluster.
- This bettor wins 95% of 117 resolved trades and is up $4.4M lifetime, far exceeding the average 60% entry odds.
- They added $35,054 to an existing No position at 86–87¢, signaling strong conviction in no Fed-rate change.
- Three wallets sharing a funder are aligned on the same outcome, adding corroboration despite the market already moving to 100% No.
$35,054 on No | Wallet win rate: 95%
95% winner scales into linked No position
A highly profitable 95% win-rate trader added $33,205 to an existing No position alongside two linked wallets, signaling strong conviction despite the market already pricing No at 86%.
- This bettor has won 111 of 117 resolved trades and earned $4.39M in profit.
- The wallet added $33,205 to an existing $288,244 No position, showing continued conviction that rates will change.
- Three wallets sharing a funder have committed $33,205 to the same direction on this market.
$33,205 on No | Wallet win rate: 95%
Sharp serial trader adds to No
A proven, profitable serial trader with an 80% win rate is adding $1,740 to No at 87% in a highly liquid Fed market.
- This bettor wins 80% of 122 resolved trades and is up $107,342 lifetime.
- The wallet is adding $1,740 to an existing No position at 87%, reinforcing its conviction that rates will not change.
- The trader has positioned across 26 events with a strong 80% win rate, suggesting a repeatable edge rather than a one-off bet.
$1,740 on No | Wallet win rate: 85%
Whale scales into No
A profitable whale added $360K to an existing No position during an extreme volume spike, creating a notable macro-market conviction signal despite an unexceptional win rate.
- This trader added $359,831 to an existing No position, bringing their total investment in the market above $1 million.
- The trade represented 138% of the market's 24-hour volume and arrived during a 13,492x historical volume spike.
- The wallet is profitable overall at +$1.0 million, though its 57% win rate does not establish a strong standalone edge.
$42,017 on No | Wallet win rate: 58%
Whale scales into No
A profitable whale added $360K to an existing No position during an extreme volume spike, creating a notable macro-market conviction signal despite an unexceptional win rate.
- This trader added $359,831 to an existing No position, bringing their total investment in the market above $1 million.
- The trade represented 138% of the market's 24-hour volume and arrived during a 13,492x historical volume spike.
- The wallet is profitable overall at +$1.0 million, though its 57% win rate does not establish a strong standalone edge.
$138,298 on No | Wallet win rate: 58%
Serial sharp buying No
A proven 85% winner and serial cross-market trader is exiting Yes, equivalent to buying No at 88%, though the prior position makes this partly routine position management.
- This bettor has won 85% of 60 resolved trades and is up $161,908 lifetime.
- The wallet trades across 63 markets and 60 events, indicating a substantial, repeatable track record rather than a one-off bet.
- The Yes sale at 12¢ converts to a No purchase at 88¢, but the previously held Yes position makes this weaker evidence of fresh conviction.
$7,015 on No | Wallet win rate: 84%
Serial 97% winner scaling into No
A serial cross-market trader with 97% wins and extensive activity is adding to a No position during a 34.8x volume spike, though the trade is not near resolution.
- This bettor has won 97% of 1,768 resolved trades across 576 markets and is up nearly $25,000.
- They added $1,600 to No at 80¢, increasing an existing position rather than merely taking profits.
- The market saw a 34.8x historical volume spike, adding confirmation to the directional move.
$1,780 on No | Wallet win rate: 97%
13-wallet coordinated No buyers
A 13-wallet No-buying cluster and 47.7x volume spike provide strong corroboration despite the individual trader's below-market win-rate profile.
- 13 wallets bought No in the same market, committing $82,185 to one direction.
- Trading volume surged to 47.7 times its historical average, signaling unusually concentrated positioning.
- The trader has a 73% win rate across 387 resolved bets, though their average winning entry of 78¢ makes that record less exceptional.
$47,484 on No | Wallet win rate: 73%
Serial 97% winner scaling into No
A serial cross-market trader with 97% wins and extensive activity is adding to a No position during a 34.8x volume spike, though the trade is not near resolution.
- This bettor has won 97% of 1,768 resolved trades across 576 markets and is up nearly $25,000.
- They added $1,600 to No at 80¢, increasing an existing position rather than merely taking profits.
- The market saw a 34.8x historical volume spike, adding confirmation to the directional move.
$1,740 on No | Wallet win rate: 97%
Large-stakes Yes conviction amid volume surge
A profitable high-volume trader is adding to a very large Yes position amid a 70x volume spike, though the existing position makes this weaker as a fresh copy signal.
- This established trader is adding $4,095 to Yes while already holding a $61,777 position.
- The market saw a 70x spike versus its historical trading volume, alongside a 6% one-day price rise.
- The wallet has won 74% of 1,117 resolved bets and is up $155,089, though its typical wins come at much higher prices.
$1,299 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 73%
Top Holders
- 0xa5ef...2966 — No, $19,858,985
- 0xbe18...3be4 — Yes, $1,266,232 (81% win rate)
- 0x9218...1d8b — Yes, $1,183,807
- 0x42f4...12c7 — Yes, $506,635
- 0x407b...ec6b — Yes, $461,343
- 0xe217...846d — Yes, $350,000
- 0xb1a2...372a — Yes, $291,429 (73% win rate)
- 0x8ba7...84e9 — Yes, $265,185
- 0x032e...2a9e — Yes, $260,667 (76% win rate)
- 0xb711...dd52 — Yes, $231,191
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