Fed Decision in September?
39 signals across 2 markets · $737,971 tracked · resolves Sep 16, 2026
This event tracks prediction-market odds for the Federal Reserve’s September 2026 interest-rate decision, focused on whether the FOMC leaves the upper bound of the target federal funds rate unchanged. PolySpotter monitors smart-money activity around the market, including a recent signal from a perfect-record macro bettor.
Markets (2)
Top trades across all markets
- Large coordinated No positioning
A large fresh No position aligns with nine wallets deploying $447,000 amid a 21.8x volume spike, though opposing linked-wallet activity makes the signal mixed.
$25,483Wallet win rate: 94%Score: 10.8 - Coordinated Yes position reduction
Four wallets coordinated $14,059 of Yes selling, including large existing positions, creating a notable but likely profit-taking signal rather than fresh No conviction.
$14,059Score: 10.2 - Funded cluster buying Yes
A six-wallet funded cluster and four-wallet one-sided push provide meaningful coordinated conviction, reinforced by a 36x volume spike, despite the individual trader's only moderate edge and prior Yes exposure.
$2,692Wallet win rate: 66%Score: 10.0 - Seven-wallet Fed hike cluster
A seven-wallet Yes cluster and 36x volume spike indicate coordinated conviction, though the individual trader's 69% win rate is not independently sharp and this is an add to an existing position.
$4,862Wallet win rate: 69%Score: 9.5 - New whale joins 10-wallet Yes cluster
A three-day-old wallet is adding heavily to an existing Yes position while 10 wallets collectively commit $115,427 to the same Fed-rate thesis.
$26,562Score: 8.7 - New whale joins 10-wallet Yes cluster
A heavily funded new wallet is adding over $10,000 to an existing Yes position while 10 wallets collectively buy $115,427 of the same outcome.
$10,138Score: 8.7 - Coordinated Yes buyers amid volume surge
Three wallets coordinated on Yes during a 69.7x volume spike, including an established 83% winner adding to a large existing Yes position.
$7,855Score: 8.5 - Three-wallet No conviction cluster
A three-wallet cluster committed $52,224 to No near even odds, providing a meaningful contrarian signal despite larger opposing Yes flow.
$16,818Score: 8.3 - Linked wallets scaling into Yes
Four linked wallets deployed $14.7K on Yes amid a 16.5x volume surge and strong upward price momentum, providing meaningful coordinated conviction despite mixed individual track records.
$14,652Score: 8.2 - Six-wallet No cluster with sharp trader
A proven high-volume serial trader bought No alongside five other wallets during a 69.7x volume spike, creating a strong coordinated signal despite the market already moving toward No.
$5,499Wallet win rate: 92%Score: 8.0
Top wallets in this event
- 0x7b02b2…4991$434,334 · 1 market · 2 alerts · 57% wins
- 0xeb6f0a…25f0$61,475 · 1 market · 8 alerts · 74% wins
- 0x8c5e9c…eb3f$26,562 · 1 market · 1 alert
- 0xfaf680…cc47$25,483 · 1 market · 1 alert · 94% wins
- 0xa022ba…77f8$25,024 · 1 market · 1 alert · 71% wins
- 0x71edff…d338$21,723 · 2 markets · 5 alerts · 83% wins
- 0xfbe665…00f8$17,877 · 2 markets · 2 alerts · 100% wins
- 0xc3ca1a…688e$17,333 · 1 market · 2 alerts
- 0x1058f1…01c1$11,429 · 1 market · 1 alert
- 0xe4cb2a…4f32$10,138 · 1 market · 1 alert
FAQs
What are the odds for the September 2026 Fed decision?
The event reflects Polymarket pricing on whether the Federal Reserve makes no change to interest rates after its September 2026 FOMC meeting. The odds can move as inflation data, jobs reports, Fed speeches, and macro traders update expectations.
What outcome is being traded in this Fed decision event?
The listed child market asks whether there will be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting, using the upper bound of the target federal funds range as the reference point.
Is smart money betting on the September 2026 Fed decision?
PolySpotter currently tracks about $7,997 in smart-money activity across this event, with one signal highlighted from a perfect-record macro bettor. That activity can help show where experienced macro prediction-market traders are positioning.
When does the September 2026 Fed decision market resolve?
This event is expected to resolve after the Federal Reserve’s September 2026 meeting, with the listed resolution date of September 16, 2026, based on the announced change, if any, to the target federal funds rate.
Why do Fed rate decision odds change on Polymarket?
Odds can shift when new economic data changes expectations for inflation, growth, or labor-market conditions, or when Federal Reserve officials signal a different policy path. Large or high-conviction smart-money trades can also influence market attention.