Fed Decision in September?
201 signals across 2 markets · $2,507,091 tracked · resolves Sep 16, 2026
This event tracks prediction-market odds for the Federal Reserve’s September 2026 interest-rate decision, focused on whether the FOMC leaves the upper bound of the target federal funds rate unchanged. PolySpotter monitors smart-money activity around the market, including a recent signal from a perfect-record macro bettor.
Markets (2)
Top trades across all markets
- 11-wallet coordinated Yes buying
A coordinated 11-wallet Yes push, including seven linked wallets, coincides with a 23.3x volume spike and continued accumulation by an experienced trader.
$3,603Wallet win rate: 65%Score: 11.5 - Large coordinated No positioning
A large fresh No position aligns with nine wallets deploying $447,000 amid a 21.8x volume spike, though opposing linked-wallet activity makes the signal mixed.
$25,483Wallet win rate: 91%Score: 10.8 - Serial high-volume Yes bettor
A highly active bettor with an 86% win rate is adding to an existing Yes position, though the two-wallet cluster provides only modest additional confirmation.
$1,116Wallet win rate: 86%Score: 10.6 - Seven-wallet Fed hike cluster
A seven-wallet Yes cluster and 36x volume spike indicate coordinated conviction, though the individual trader's 69% win rate is not independently sharp and this is an add to an existing position.
$6,273Wallet win rate: 70%Score: 10.5 - Coordinated Yes position reduction
Four wallets coordinated $14,059 of Yes selling, including large existing positions, creating a notable but likely profit-taking signal rather than fresh No conviction.
$22,021Score: 10.4 - Seven-wallet funded cluster buys Yes
Seven wallets sharing a funder are aligned on Yes, and this established trader is adding to a large existing position despite only moderate personal edge.
$2,415Wallet win rate: 69%Score: 10.2 - Funded cluster buying Yes
A six-wallet funded cluster and four-wallet one-sided push provide meaningful coordinated conviction, reinforced by a 36x volume spike, despite the individual trader's only moderate edge and prior Yes exposure.
$2,692Wallet win rate: 65%Score: 10.0 - Serial high-volume Yes bettor
A highly active bettor with an 86% win rate is adding to an existing Yes position, though the two-wallet cluster provides only modest additional confirmation.
$1,951Wallet win rate: 86%Score: 9.9 - Funded cluster buying Yes
A six-wallet funded cluster and four-wallet one-sided push provide meaningful coordinated conviction, reinforced by a 36x volume spike, despite the individual trader's only moderate edge and prior Yes exposure.
$8,550Wallet win rate: 65%Score: 9.7 - 94% winner scaling into Yes
A highly profitable 94% win-rate trader is adding $8,000 to Yes at 68% within a 19-wallet funded cluster.
$8,000Wallet win rate: 94%Score: 9.6
Top wallets in this event
- 0x7b02b2…4991$653,713 · 1 market · 7 alerts · 57% wins
- 0x1058f1…01c1$121,937 · 1 market · 7 alerts · 99% wins
- 0xe4cb2a…4f32$109,276 · 1 market · 4 alerts · 0% wins
- 0xeb6f0a…25f0$102,082 · 1 market · 16 alerts · 73% wins
- 0x7bc141…8db4$77,069 · 2 markets · 4 alerts · 71% wins
- 0xfbe665…00f8$75,424 · 2 markets · 7 alerts · 100% wins
- 0xf55927…f462$70,688 · 1 market · 5 alerts · 92% wins
- 0x5966db…f804$68,259 · 1 market · 2 alerts · 95% wins
- 0x42f4cf…12c7$60,664 · 1 market · 1 alert
- 0x71ca04…3501$57,284 · 1 market · 2 alerts · 72% wins
FAQs
What are the odds for the September 2026 Fed decision?
The event reflects Polymarket pricing on whether the Federal Reserve makes no change to interest rates after its September 2026 FOMC meeting. The odds can move as inflation data, jobs reports, Fed speeches, and macro traders update expectations.
What outcome is being traded in this Fed decision event?
The listed child market asks whether there will be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting, using the upper bound of the target federal funds range as the reference point.
Is smart money betting on the September 2026 Fed decision?
PolySpotter currently tracks about $7,997 in smart-money activity across this event, with one signal highlighted from a perfect-record macro bettor. That activity can help show where experienced macro prediction-market traders are positioning.
When does the September 2026 Fed decision market resolve?
This event is expected to resolve after the Federal Reserve’s September 2026 meeting, with the listed resolution date of September 16, 2026, based on the announced change, if any, to the target federal funds rate.
Why do Fed rate decision odds change on Polymarket?
Odds can shift when new economic data changes expectations for inflation, growth, or labor-market conditions, or when Federal Reserve officials signal a different policy path. Large or high-conviction smart-money trades can also influence market attention.